AASHTO CA16-4-2015 Brief 16 The Evolving Role of Commuting.pdf

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1、Brief 16. The Evolving Role of Commuting Janua Ry 2015 Commuting in a merica 2013 The National Report on Commuting Patterns and TrendsAbout the AASHTO Census Transportation Planning Products Program Established by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and th

2、e U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT), the AASHTO Census Transportation Planning Products Program (CTPP) compiles census data on demographic characteristics, home and work locations, and journey- to-work travel flows to assist with a variety of state, regional, and local transportation poli

3、cy and planning efforts. CTPP also supports corridor and project studies, environmental analyses, and emergency operations management. In 1990, 2000, and again in 2006, AASHTO partnered with all of the states on pooled-fund projects to sup- port the development of special census products and data ta

4、bulations for transportation. These census transpor- tation data packages have proved invaluable in understanding characteristics about where people live and work, their journey-to-work commuting patterns, and the modes they use for getting to work. In 2012, the CTPP was established as an ongoing te

5、chnical service program of AASHTO. CTPP provides a number of primary services: Special Data Tabulation from the U.S. Census BureauCTPP oversees the specification, purchase, and delivery of this special tabulation designed by and for transportation planners. Outreach and TrainingThe CTPP team provide

6、s training on data and data issues in many formats, from live briefings and presentations to hands-on, full-day courses. The team has also created a number of electronic sources of training, from e-learning to recorded webinars to downloadable presentations. Technical SupportCTPP provides limited di

7、rect technical support for solving data issues; the pro- gram also maintains a robust listserv where many issues are discussed, dissected, and resolved by the CTPP community. ResearchCTPP staff and board members routinely generate problem statements to solicit research on data issues; additionally,

8、CTPP has funded its own research efforts. Total research generated or funded by the current CTPP since 2006 is in excess of $1 million. Staff Penelope Weinberger, CTPP Program Manager Matt Hardy, Program Director, Policy and Planning Jim Tymon, Chief Operating Officer/Director of Policy and Manageme

9、nt Project Team Steven E. Polzin, Co-Author, Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida Alan E. Pisarski, Co-Author, Consultant, Falls Church, Virginia Bruce Spear, Data Expert, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Liang Long, Data Expert, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Nancy McGuckin

10、, Data Expert, Travel Behavior Analyst Contact Penelope Weinberger, e-mail: pweinbergeraashto.org, phone: 202-624-3556; or CTPPinfoaashto.org 2015 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. Pub Code: C

11、A16-4 ISBN: 978-1-56051-587-6 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends Brief 16. The Evolving Role of Commuting Thi

12、s brief is the sixteenth in a series describing commuting in America. This body of work, sponsored by American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and carried out in conjunction with a National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) project that provided supporti

13、ng data, builds on three prior Commut- ing in America documents that were issued over the past three decades. Unlike the prior reports that were single volumes, this effort consists of a series of briefs, each of which addresses a critical aspect of commuting in America. These briefs, taken together

14、, comprise a comprehensive summary of American commuting. The briefs are disseminated through the AASHTO website (traveltrends.transportation.org). Accompanying data tables and an Executive Summary complete the body of information known as Commuting in America 2013 (CIA 2013). Background As has been

15、 the practice in past versions of the Commuting in America series, this brief further considers the meanings of the data presented in the previous briefs. Unlike the prior briefs, this one is more subjective in nature, with the authors interpreting the data on com- muting in terms of relative signif

16、icance and implications for transportation planning and policy. Depending upon their knowledge of transportation and their geographic context and perspective, readers may have differing priorities and interpretations from those devel- oped by the authors based on a national overview. While acknowled

17、ging the differences in perspectives, the mandate has been that each brief be objective and state only what the facts support, without bias toward or advocacy of any particular viewpoint, to assure objectivity. This brief presents to readers the authors interpretations of possible directions that ov

18、erall commuting behaviors may take. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of AASHTO, its mem- bers, or its staff. The closing chapter of CIA3 left readers with a series of questions and statements that were seen as keys to the future of commuting.

19、 The intent of this sixteenth brief of Commuting in America 2013 is to assess what findings from the current research merit attention now and going for- ward. A central concern in interpreting commuting trends is the major challenge of discriminating between cyclical A central concern in interpretin

20、g commuting trends is the major challenge of discriminating between cyclical effects that are a product of the present state of the economy and those that are longer-term structural changes. 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplicat

21、ion is a violation of applicable law.4 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends effects that are a product of the present state of the economy and those that are longer-term structural changes. This brief is organized into sections that generally follow the flo

22、w of the previous briefs in the series: significant observations are identified and briefly described, then their impli- cations and anticipated impacts going forward are discussed. The 16 briefs in the overall series include the following: 1. Commuting in America 2013 Overview 9. How Commuting Infl

23、uences Travel 2. The Role of Commuting in Overall Travel 10. Commuting Mode Choice 3. Population and Worker Trends 11. Commuting Departure Time and T rip Time 4. Population and Worker Dynamics 12. Auto Commuting 5. The Nature and Pattern of Jobs 13. Transit Commuting 6. Job Dynamics 14. Bicycling an

24、d Walk Commuting 7. Vehicle and Transit Availability 15. Commuting Flow Patterns 8. Consumer Spending on Transportation 16. The Evolving Role of Commuting The Extent and Pattern of Commuting Briefs 2 through 6 and Brief 15 address factors that deter- mine the magnitude and geography of commuting and

25、 put them in perspective with total travel. The absolute volume of commuting trips is driven by population growth and labor force participation. The impacts on the transportation system are further influenced by trip length and trip mode. Driven by population and worker growth, commuting continues t

26、o grow in absolute terms. However, the pace of growth in the workforce has slowed significantly from prior decades, where population growth, population age profile impacts, and female labor force participation trends resulted in far more rapid growth in commuters in both ab- solute and percentage te

27、rms. Figure 16-1 (previously presented as Figure 3-3 from Brief 3) summarizes the composite effect of population and labor force participation changes at the national level to paint a picture of the demands placed on transportation systems by decade due to the growth in commuters. The declining work

28、force growth over the past two decades and projections of continuing declines indicate a much diminished role of commuter growth in shaping future transportation needs. 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of

29、applicable law.5 Brief 16. The Evolving Role of Commuting Figure 16-1. Worker Increase T rends by DecadeSource: U.S. Census Bureau The trend of slowing growth in the commuter workforce has been correctly forecast and underway for some time. Underlying this slower growth are a number of specific tren

30、ds of interest: Population growth continues to decline, at the rate of 0.7 percent per year at this time. U.S. Census Bureau projections of population in the working age group 1864 show a sharp decline over the next 20 yearsapproximately 6 million new poten- tial workers from 2015 to 2030, in sharp

31、contrast to 26 million in the period 2000 to 2012. There has been a surge in the population over age 65; two-thirds of the change from 2011 to 2012 was in the 6574 year age group. Coupled with these national trends are a host of considerations that will influence the distribution of employment acros

32、s geography and the consequent local impacts. In CIA3, demographic patterns were clear enough to identify potentially severe re- ductions in growth in the working age population. Current trends and projections make for an even more dire sense of the future, exacerbated by the economic conditions of

33、the period. Labor force projections, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in De- cember 2013, indicate that the labor force grew by 16.8 million from 1992 to 2002 but only by 10.1 million from 2002 to 2012, a very sharp decline. Projections are that growth will decline further, with an i

34、ncrease of only 8.5 million from 2012 to 2022, about half that of the 19922002 decade. Two-thirds of that increase will be in the 55+ age groups. Thus, we can expect to see a substantially aging workforce, a loss of almost 3 million young workers in the 1624 age group, and a gain of fewer than 2 mil

35、lion in the 2554 age group, the main 6.9 12.8 18.1 18.4 13.2 8.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 19501960 19601970 19701980 19801990 19902000 20002010 Millions 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable la

36、w.6 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends labor-force age group. The total increase in the 55+ age group will be almost 9.4 million. Figure 16-2 shows the shares of labor force increase by age group from 2012 to 2022 based on BLS projections. Figure 16-2. La

37、bor Force Growth by Age Group, 20122022 Source: Monthly Labor Review, Labor Force Projections to 2022, December 2013. Of note is that these projections were developed during a period in which immigrant worker arrivals dropped substantially and births to Hispanic immigrants decreased. It is unclear w

38、hether the levels of immigration or fertility levels will ever return to the scale seen before the economic decline. Approximately half of national population growth by 2050 is predicted to be from international immigrants, which creates greater uncertainty in workforce forecasts. Do- mestic immigra

39、tion policy, foreign emigration policy, and social/economic conditions here and abroad will influence future immigration levels to the U.S. With greater uncertainty regarding economic opportunity in the U.S. and rapidly-improving economic opportunities in much of the developing world, historical imm

40、igration motivations may be changing. Additionally, significant changes in current resident workforce participation trends fuel uncertainty about future commuting levels in local areas. Prospects for continuing changes in traditional retirement patterns may bolster workforce levels, but growing disa

41、bility ranks and changing safety net influences such as retirement program structure and funding and health care cost and availability may affect labor force participation. Chronic unemploy- ment or underemployment in certain market segments may continue to alter traditional labor force participatio

42、n levels. Adoption of technology advances may lead to more auto- mation of jobs and/or different skill requirements and job locations. 8,475-1,350 -1,4731,942 3,607 4,571 1,178-2,500 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 Total 16 and over 16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over ThousandsModest

43、 labor force additions totaling only 8.5 million are forecast by 2022. 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.7 Brief 16. The Evolving Role of Commuting Most questions regarding future commutin

44、g demand posed in CIA3 projected relative prosperity into the future as a fundamental determinant of future trends. That implicit pre- sumption merits reflection in light of a growing recognition that the “new normal” may be different than the historical economic trends. Projections of malaise then

45、may be as errone- ous as projecting automatic growing wealth was 10 years ago. The combined consequences of demographic and economic conditions ultimately will shape the future workforce and its commuting behavior. Regardless of how these phenomena play out, the boom in commuting growth is behind us

46、, at least at the national level, but perhaps not so for all locations. There is no foreseeable prospect for a surge in workers, in absolute numbers or percentage terms, as seen in past decades. This slower growth in demand for commute travel reduces the challenge for trans- portation planners and o

47、perators and suggests that commuter growth will remain import- ant but perhaps be less of a factor impacting national transportation needs in the future. Acknowledging the more modest national forecast of growth in commuters absent significant changes in immigration and/or fertility, there remain my

48、riad considerations that will impact the commuting volumes and patterns in a given geography. The following were among the questions relevant to local commuting volumes raised in CIA3: Will population growth shift toward the lower end of the metropolitan size spectrum? Will the public find the new h

49、igher-density communities to be attractive alternative lifestyles? Will greater suburban job/worker balance occur, or will there be stabilization at present levels? The longer-term trends in population redistribution to the South and West may have moderated, as in the recent past we have witnessed the lowest levels of popula- tion redistribution in our recorded histo- ry. This has been a product of declines in job opportunities and the inability to sell or buy housing. These factors also have sharply impeded the ability of wor