Challenges and Opportunities in Developing Forest Carbon .ppt

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1、Challenges and Opportunities in Developing Forest Carbon Accounting Approaches for Use in Regulatory and Financial Trading Schemes,Biometrics Working Group New Orleans, March 2009Alan A. Lucier, Ph.D. Senior Vice President, NCASI,1,Acronyms & Definitions,GHG : Greenhouse Gas ERRs: GHG emission reduc

2、tions and removals cap: Upper limit on GHG emissions in a “cap and trade” program. Offsets: ERRs affecting sources and sinks of GHGs that are not subject to a cap.,2,History,1980s: “Forest offsets” identified as cost-effective approach to GHG mitigation. 1990s: Intense international discussions of f

3、orest offsets in context of Kyoto Protocol negotiations. Post-Kyoto: Ongoing discussions and limited implementation of forest offsets in many contexts (CCAR, WCI, RGGI, CCX, etc.).,3,What do we know about forestry and greenhouse gases?,4,5,Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) is a cost-effective stra

4、tegy for GHG control.,6,GHG benefits of SFM are associated with: forest regrowth after harvest; lower risk of wildfire; production of energy-efficient materials and biomass energy; carbon sequestration in forests & in wood products.,So, whats the problem?,7,Barriers to Forest Offsets,Political Techn

5、ical,8,Political Barriers to Forest Offsets,Strongly held differences among stakeholders regarding desired effects of offsets on forest management and climate policy. SFM vs. forest preservation“minimize cost of GHG mitigation” vs. “reduce fossil fuel consumption as soon as possible”,9,Technical Bar

6、riers to Forest Offsets,Uncertainties about real GHG benefits Concern that supply of forest offsets will “flood the market” Cost of producing offsets Transaction costs Opportunity costs,10,Leading Conceptual Approach to Forest Offset Accounting,GHG mitigation benefits of a forest offset project must

7、 be:Real Additional (Beyond Business as Usual) Measured Verified Discounted or insured because benefits are not permanent and subject to leakage.,11,Problems with Leading Approach,Political & technical barriers have not been overcome.Complex discussions of “additionality, leakage & permanence” can o

8、bfuscate the barriers. “Additionality” raises equity issues e.g., granting offsets only to “new” tree planters seems unfair to those who plant trees routinely. Measurement and verification of forest C stocks: Increase transaction costs Do not substantially reduce overall uncertainty about real GHG b

9、enefits,12,Alternative Conceptual Approach to Forest Offset Accounting,Offsets are created by implementing forestry activities with acknowledged GHG benefits. GHG benefits per ha of activity are determined a priori by regional authorities. Lower transaction costs Greater transparency in models of of

10、fset production costs and GHG benefits Offset project proponents report and verify implementation of activities.,13,Which Forestry Activities Provide GHG Benefits ?,Recommended readingThe Effects of Forest Management on Carbon Storage in Ontarios Forests Climate Change Research Report 03 Ontario Min

11、istry of Natural Resources by S.J. Colombo et al.,14,Forestry Activities with GHG Benefits (from Colombo et al.),Growth Enhancement Planting and Competition Control Genetic Improvement Fertilization Thinning ? Site Preparation ? Forest Protection Forest Fire Management Insect & Disease Management Mi

12、nimize Area in Roads and Landings Reduce Disturbance / Harvest,15,Key Technical Issue for Leading & Alternative Approaches,GHG mitigation benefits of forest offset projects cannot be measured directly. Important benefits occur offsite and in the future. Carbon storage in harvested wood Substitution

13、effects,16,17,www.corrim.org,Selected Components of GHG Profile of Canadian Forest Products Industry,NCASI Special Report 07-09,18,Another Key Technical Issue for Leading & Alternative Approaches,Time horizon is an important parameter in models of GHG benefits of forest offset projects. For example,

14、 compare GHG mitigation benefits of two management scenarios: old forest protection harvest old forest & implement SFMProtection SFM in near term SFM Protection over the long term,19,Conclusions,Opportunities for GHG mitigation exist across the continuum of forest management styles from strict prote

15、ction to short-rotation plantations. Nevertheless, there are large political and technical barriers to realizing the potential benefits of forest offsets. Disagreement about objectives Concerns about “flooding the market” GHG mitigation benefits cannot be measured directly,20,Conclusions,The leading approach to forest offset accounting has been discussed for more than a decade but has not overcome political and technical barriers.Consideration should be given to alternative approaches including “activity accounting.”,21,