The dynamics of cross-border residence from Hong Kong to .ppt

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1、1,The dynamics of cross-border residence from Hong Kong to Mainland China,Prof. Eddie Hui, Prof. Francis Wong, Prof. S.M. Li & Mr. K.H. Yu The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Intl Conference on Chinas Urban Land and Housing in the 21st Century, Hong Kong Baptist University, 13-15 Dec 2007,2,Introdu

2、ction,The position of Hong Kong as a gateway to China has changed ever since the Chinese Mainland adopted the Open Door Policy in 1978. Due to an entirely different economic/political system, Hong Kong has been the gateway for foreigners to do business with China. More than 200,000 Hong Kong residen

3、ts were working across the border (CSD, 2003), and over 5 million cross-boundary passenger trips had been recorded during a 2-week survey in November 2003 (Planning Department, 2004).,3,4,5,6,Problem Statement,Problems arise as policy makers are not able to respond to this potential population movem

4、ent without acknowledging its possible implications, such as:How would different sections of the populace value possible relocation to the Mainland, the place with the same ethnic background while displaying vast differences in other aspects such as cultural, legal, political and economic disparitie

5、s? Would factors, such as the improved local economy and the anticipated aging population, change the dynamics of cross-border residential movements?,7,Objectives,The two objectives of this research are:To explore the types of individuals in Hong Kong who are most likely to consider cross-border res

6、idence in the near future.To have a more thorough investigation on both the location and tenure preferences of those who have stated their intentions to reside in the Mainland in the future, subject to various attributes.,8,Literature Review: Economic Factors,Economic incentives are generally percei

7、ved to be the major contributing factors in ones decision-making process with regard to relocation (Spitze, 1984; Glick, 1993). The major economic concerns relating to home-moving decisions are employment opportunities in the host areas, disparities in living cost and income.,9,Literature Review: Em

8、ployment Opportunities,As a job change implies a change in income, a change in employment often leads to household relocation (Clark & Onaka, 1983). Orr (1975) states that low income households were more sensitive to employment opportunities than higher income households. Reibstein (1992) points out

9、 that job-related circumstances may actually force people to move, though it is generally assumed that all families would prefer not to spend time and money traveling (Goodman, 1976).,10,Literature Review: Living Cost,The results of Berger and Bloomquists (1992) study suggest that the location of wh

10、ere migrants relocate to is largely determined by housing price differences between metropolitan areas. This is applicable to the phenomenon of cross-border residence since there is quite a difference between the prices of properties in Hong Kong and in the Mainland (Li, 2002).,11,Literature Review:

11、 Income,Conventional wisdom indicates that mobility declines with income (Pickvance, 1973; Kain and Quinley, 1975). However, an inverted U-shape has been reported as well in this regard (Brown and Kain, 1972; Weinberg, 1975). Chiu and Ho (2005) comment that higher-income households are less likely t

12、o relocate from a higher to a lower living standard area, while lower-income households can enjoy lower living cost from relocation without sacrificing too much quality or variety of consumer goods.,12,Literature Review: Non-economic Factors (Family Life Cycle),Correlations between mobility rate and

13、 household characteristics were documented in previous studies (Quigley Hui and Lam, 2000) on mobility behaviours has been revealed.,13,Literature Review: Non-economic Factors (Housing Tenure),It has been almost a consensus in housing studies that renters are more mobile than home owners (see Quigle

14、y Dieleman, 2001).,14,Methodology,This study presents a two-stage structure on exploring the stated preferences of Hong Kong citizens interested in moving to the Mainland in the next 10 years. How different household and economic-related attributes influence the likelihood of potential cross-border

15、residential decision. The location and tenure preferences of those people. Three logistic regression models are deployed to investigate the three dimensions of housing decisions of potential cross-border residents, grounded on the belief that individuals maximize their utility level, subject to a bu

16、dget constraint.,15,Data,The Data were extracted from a survey conducted by the Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong in 2005 concerning the aspirations and experience of taking up residence in the Chinese Mainland. Some 11,100 households were randomly selected and more than 28,000 individua

17、ls over the age of 18 were interviewed.,16,Table 1: Descriptions of variables selected for the study,17,The results from the logistic regression models are presented in Table 2 below.,Table 2: Logistic regression model results Note: * significant at 1%; * significant at 5%; * significant at 10%,18,R

18、esults: On General Cross-border Residential Propensities,Public sector residents, property owners, and males are less likely to become cross-border residents, consistent with the general knowledge from the previous mobility literature. On the other hand, individuals between 20 and 35 years old have

19、the lowest possibility of relocation to the Mainland. Meanwhile, senior persons aged 55 or above view cross-border residence as a preferable option to staying in Hong Kong. Both observations are different from conventional mobility literature.,19,Results: On General Cross-border Residential Propensi

20、ties (Contd),The higher-income group (earning more than $40,000 a month) has a negative, yet insignificant effect on cross-border mobility tendencies. Those in the lower-income group (less than $10,000 a month) has a significant, negative impact in this regard. This finding in a sense leans towards

21、the inverted U-shape conclusion by Brown and Kain (1972) and Weinberg (1975) about mobility with income.,20,Results: On General Cross-border Residential Propensities (Contd),Larger households do not view cross-border residential mobility a preferable option, which leans towards the school of thought

22、 proposed by Brown and Kain (1972) and Maisel (1966). The frequency of visits to the Mainland does not have a significant relationship with cross-border residence Ones duration of stay in the Mainland has a significant and positive impact on cross-border residential mobility.,21,Results: On Location

23、 Preferences of Potential Movers,Relatively lower cost incurred in travel between Hong Kong and the Guangdong Province appears to be a key concern of moving, especially among public sector residents and those in larger households. Also, the more frequent an individual visits the Mainland in the prec

24、eding 12 months, somewhere in the Guangdong Province is preferred.,22,Results: On Tenure Preferences of Potential Movers,Living in owned housing is preferable among older citizens in Hong Kong once they relocate across the border. Higher-income individuals, along with homeowners in Hong Kong, would

25、also prefer owned housing as accommodation when they move to the Mainland. Larger households are more likely to be homeowners in the Mainland.,23,Conclusion & Implications,Given that cross-border residence between Hong Kong and Mainland China is a relatively new topic and the heterogeneous structure

26、s between Hong Kong and the Mainland is something not present in conventional residential mobility studies, this paper provides some insights that have not been provided by conventional studies or government surveys. It offers some possible directions to look at residential mobility between places w

27、hich share similar, but not identical, features as the cross-border residence between Hong Kong and Mainland China.,24,Conclusions & Implications (Contd),The first policy implication is that current institutional measures, particularly regarding the eligibility of social welfare/services, somewhat k

28、eep older people from residing in the Mainland permanently as homeowners. The second implication lies in the possibility that public rental housing (PRH) tenants, with higher propensities than those in public ownership housing, are able to reside across the boundary as renters while occupying their

29、PRH flat in Hong Kong, without violating the decree governing the asset ceiling on the eligibility for PRH.,25,Recommendations,The government could revise the current arrangements on social welfare/service provisions, which helps reduce the cost involved in cross-border residence thus enhancing the living conditions of these citizens.,26,Acknowledgement: This study is funded by the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong (Project No. PolyU5110/03E).,27,Q & A,