ASTM E1355-2012(2018) Standard Guide for Evaluating the Predictive Capability of Deterministic Fire Models.pdf

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1、Designation: E1355 12 (Reapproved 2018) An American National StandardStandard Guide forEvaluating the Predictive Capability of Deterministic FireModels1This standard is issued under the fixed designation E1355; the number immediately following the designation indicates the year oforiginal adoption o

2、r, in the case of revision, the year of last revision. A number in parentheses indicates the year of last reapproval. Asuperscript epsilon () indicates an editorial change since the last revision or reapproval.1. Scope1.1 This guide provides a methodology for evaluating thepredictive capabilities of

3、 a fire model for a specific use. Theintent is to cover the whole range of deterministic numericalmodels which might be used in evaluating the effects of fires inand on structures.1.2 The methodology is presented in terms of four areas ofevaluation:1.2.1 Defining the model and scenarios for which th

4、eevaluation is to be conducted,1.2.2 Verifying the appropriateness of the theoretical basisand assumptions used in the model,1.2.3 Verifying the mathematical and numerical robustnessof the model, and1.2.4 Quantifying the uncertainty and accuracy of the modelresults in predicting of the course of eve

5、nts in similar firescenarios.1.3 This standard does not purport to address all of thesafety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is theresponsibility of the user of this standard to establish appro-priate safety, health, and environmental practices and deter-mine the applicability of regula

6、tory limitations prior to use.1.4 This fire standard cannot be used to provide quantitativemeasures.1.5 This international standard was developed in accor-dance with internationally recognized principles on standard-ization established in the Decision on Principles for theDevelopment of Internationa

7、l Standards, Guides and Recom-mendations issued by the World Trade Organization TechnicalBarriers to Trade (TBT) Committee.2. Referenced Documents2.1 ASTM Standards:2E176 Terminology of Fire StandardsE603 Guide for Room Fire ExperimentsE1591 Guide for Obtaining Data for Fire Growth Models2.2 Interna

8、tional Standards Organization Standards:3ISO/IEC Guide 98 (2008) Uncertainty of measurement Part 3: Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measure-mentISO 13943 (2008) Fire safety VocabularyISO 16730 (2008) Fire safety engineering Assessment,verification and validation of calculation methods3. Te

9、rminology3.1 Definitions:For definitions of terms used in this guideand associated with fire issues, refer to terminology containedin Terminology E176 and ISO 13943. In case of conflict, thedefinitions given in Terminology E176 shall prevail.3.2 Definitions of Terms Specific to This Standard:3.2.1 m

10、odel evaluationthe process of quantifying theaccuracy of chosen results from a model when applied for aspecific use.3.2.2 model validationthe process of determining thedegree to which a calculation method is an accurate represen-tation of the real world from the perspective of the intendeduses of th

11、e calculation method.3.2.2.1 DiscussionThe fundamental strategy of validationis the identification and quantification of error and uncertaintyin the conceptual and computational models with respect tointended uses.3.2.3 model verificationthe process of determining thatthe implementation of a calcula

12、tion method accurately repre-sents the developers conceptual description of the calculationmethod and the solution to the calculation method.3.2.3.1 DiscussionThe fundamental strategy of verifica-tion of computational models is the identification and quanti-fication of error in the computational mod

13、el and its solution.3.2.4 The precision of a model refers to the deterministiccapability of a model and its repeatability.3.2.5 The accuracy refers to how well the model replicatesthe evolution of an actual fire.1This guide is under the jurisdiction ofASTM Committee E05 on Fire Standardsand is the d

14、irect responsibility of Subcommittee E05.33 on Fire Safety Engineering.Current edition approved July 1, 2018. Published August 2018. Originallyapproved in 1990. Last previous edition approved in 2012 as E1355 12. DOI:10.1520/E1355-12R18.2For referenced ASTM standards, visit the ASTM website, www.ast

15、m.org, orcontact ASTM Customer Service at serviceastm.org. For Annual Book of ASTMStandards volume information, refer to the standards Document Summary page onthe ASTM website.3Available from American National Standards Institute, 11 West 42nd Street,13th Floor, New York, NY 10036.Copyright ASTM Int

16、ernational, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, PO Box C700, West Conshohocken, PA 19428-2959. United StatesThis international standard was developed in accordance with internationally recognized principles on standardization established in the Decision on Principles for theDevelopment of International Standards

17、, Guides and Recommendations issued by the World Trade Organization Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee.14. Summary of Guide4.1 A recommended process for evaluating the predictivecapability of fire models is described. This process includes abrief description of the model and the scenarios f

18、or whichevaluation is sought. Then, methodologies for conducting ananalysis to quantify the sensitivity of model predictions tovarious uncertain factors are presented, and several alternativesfor evaluating the accuracy of the predictions of the model areprovided. Historically, numerical accuracy ha

19、s been concernedwith time step size and errors. A more complete evaluationmust include spatial discretization. Finally, guidance is givenconcerning the relevant documentation required to summarizethe evaluation process.5. Significance and Use5.1 The process of model evaluation is critical to establi

20、sh-ing both the acceptable uses and limitations of fire models. It isnot possible to evaluate a model in total; instead, this guide isintended to provide a methodology for evaluating the predic-tive capabilities for a specific use. Validation for one applica-tion or scenario does not imply validatio

21、n for different sce-narios. Several alternatives are provided for performing theevaluation process including: comparison of predictionsagainst standard fire tests, full-scale fire experiments, fieldexperience, published literature, or previously evaluated mod-els.5.2 The use of fire models currently

22、 extends beyond the fireresearch laboratory and into the engineering, fire service andlegal communities. Sufficient evaluation of fire models isnecessary to ensure that those using the models can judge theadequacy of the scientific and technical basis for the models,select models appropriate for a d

23、esired use, and understand thelevel of confidence which can be placed on the resultspredicted by the models.Adequate evaluation will help preventthe unintentional misuse of fire models.5.3 This guide is intended to be used in conjunction withother guides under development by Committee E05. It isinte

24、nded for use by:5.3.1 Model DevelopersTo document the usefulness of aparticular calculation method perhaps for specific applications.Part of model development includes identification of precisionand limits of applicability, and independent testing.5.3.2 Model UsersTo assure themselves that they areu

25、sing an appropriate model for an application and that itprovides adequate accuracy.5.3.3 Developers of Model Performance CodesTo be surethat they are incorporating valid calculation procedures intocodes.5.3.4 Approving OffcialsTo ensure that the results ofcalculations using mathematical models stati

26、ng conformance tothis guide, cited in a submission, show clearly that the modelis used within its applicable limits and has an acceptable levelof accuracy.5.3.5 EducatorsTo demonstrate the application and ac-ceptability of calculation methods being taught.5.4 This guide is not meant to describe an a

27、cceptance testingprocedure.5.5 The emphasis of this guide is numerical models of fireevolution.5.5.1 The precision of a model refers to the deterministiccapability of a model and its repeatability.5.5.2 The accuracy of a model refers to how well the modelreplicates the evolution of an actual fire.6.

28、 General Methodology6.1 The methodology is presented in terms of four areas ofevaluation:6.1.1 Defining the model and scenarios for which theevaluation is to be conducted,6.1.2 Assessing the appropriateness of the theoretical basisand assumptions used in the model,6.1.3 Assessing the mathematical an

29、d numerical robustnessof the model, and6.1.4 Quantifying the uncertainty and accuracy of the modelresults in predicting the course of events in similar firescenarios.6.1.5 This general methodology is also consistent with themethodology presented in ISO 16730, Fire safety engineering Assessment, veri

30、fication and validation of calculationmethods, which is a potentially useful resource which can beused with ASTM E1355.6.2 Model and Scenario Documentation:6.2.1 Model DocumentationSufficient documentation ofcalculation models, including computer software, is absolutelynecessary to assess the adequa

31、cy of the scientific and technicalbasis of the models, and the accuracy of computationalprocedures. Also, adequate documentation will help preventthe unintentional misuse of fire models. Guidance on thedocumentation of computer-based fire models is provided inSection 7.6.2.2 Scenario DocumentationPr

32、ovide a complete de-scription of the scenarios or phenomena of interest in theevaluation to facilitate appropriate application of the model, toaid in developing realistic inputs for the model, and to developcriteria for judging the results of the evaluation. Detailsapplicable to evaluation of the pr

33、edictive capability of firemodels are provided in 7.2.6.3 Theoretical Basis and Assumptions in the ModelAnindependent review of the underlying physics and chemistryinherent in a model ensures appropriate application of submod-els which have been combined to produce the overall model.Details applicab

34、le to evaluation of the predictive capability offire models are provided in Section 8.6.4 Mathematical and Numerical RobustnessThe com-puter implementation of the model should be checked to ensuresuch implementation matches the stated documentation. De-tails applicable to evaluation of the predictiv

35、e capability of firemodels are provided in Section 9. Along with 6.3, thisconstitutes verification of the model.6.5 Quantifying the Uncertainty and Accuracy of the Model:6.5.1 Model UncertaintyEven deterministic models relyon inputs often based on experimental measurements, empiri-cal correlations,

36、or estimates made by engineering judgment.Uncertainties in the model inputs can lead to correspondingE1355 12 (2018)2uncertainties in the model outputs. Sensitivity analysis is usedto quantify these uncertainties in the model outputs based uponknown or estimated uncertainties in model inputs. Guidan

37、cefor obtaining input data for fire models is provided by GuideE1591. Details of sensitivity analysis applicable to evaluationof the predictive capability of fire models are provided inSection 10.6.5.2 Experimental UncertaintyIn general, the result ofmeasurement is only the result of an approximatio

38、n or estimateof the specific quantity subject to measurement, and thus theresult is complete only when accompanied by a quantitativestatement of uncertainty. Guidance for conducting full-scalecompartment tests is provided by Guide E603. Guidance fordetermining the uncertainty in measurements is prov

39、ided in theISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement.6.5.3 Model EvaluationObtaining accurate estimates offire behavior using predictive fire models involves insuringcorrect model inputs appropriate to the scenarios to bemodeled, correct selection of a model appropriate to thescenari

40、os to be modeled, correct calculations by the modelchosen, and correct interpretation of the results of the modelcalculation. Evaluation of a specific scenario with differentlevels of knowledge of the expected results of the calculationaddresses these multiple sources of potential error. Detailsappl

41、icable to evaluation of the predictive capability of firemodels are provided in Section 11.7. Model and Scenario Definition7.1 Model DocumentationProvides details of the modelevaluated in sufficient detail such that the user of the evaluationcould independently repeat the evaluation. The followingin

42、formation should be provided:7.1.1 Program Identification:7.1.1.1 Provide the name of the program or model, adescriptive title, and any information necessary to define theversion uniquely.7.1.1.2 Define the basic processing tasks performed, anddescribe the methods and procedures employed. A schemati

43、cdisplay of the flow of the calculations is useful.7.1.1.3 Identify the computer(s) on which the program hasbeen executed successfully and any required peripherals,including memory requirements and tapes.7.1.1.4 Identify the programming languages and versions inuse.7.1.1.5 Identify the software oper

44、ating system and versionsin use, including library routines.7.1.1.6 Describe any relationships to other models.7.1.1.7 Describe the history of the models development andthe names and addresses of the individual(s) and organiza-tions(s) responsible.7.1.1.8 Provide instructions for obtaining more deta

45、iledinformation about the model from the individual(s) responsiblefor maintenance of the model.7.1.2 ReferencesList the publications and other referencematerials directly related to the fire model or software.7.1.3 Problem or Function Identification:7.1.3.1 Define the fire problem modeled or functio

46、n per-formed by the program, for example, calculation of fire growth,smoke spread, people movement, etc.7.1.3.2 Describe the total fire problem environment. Gen-eral block or flow diagrams may be included here.7.1.3.3 Include any desirable background information, suchas feasibility studies or justif

47、ication statements.7.1.4 Theoretical Foundation:7.1.4.1 Describe the theoretical basis of the phenomenonand the physical laws on which the model is based.7.1.4.2 Present the governing equations and the mathemati-cal model employed.7.1.4.3 Identify the major assumptions on which the firemodel is base

48、d and any simplifying assumptions.7.1.4.4 Provide results of any independent review of thetheoretical basis of the model. This guide recommends areview by one or more recognized experts fully conversantwith the chemistry and physics of fire phenomena but notinvolved with the production of the model.

49、7.1.5 Mathematical Foundation:7.1.5.1 Describe the mathematical techniques, procedures,and computational algorithms employed to obtain numericalsolutions.7.1.5.2 Provide references to the algorithms and numericaltechniques.7.1.5.3 Present the mathematical equations in conventionalterminology and show how they are implemented in the code.7.1.5.4 Discuss the precision of the results obtained byimportant algorithms and any known dependence on theparticular computer facility.7.1.5.5 For iterative solutions, discuss the use and interpre-tation of convergence t