AASHTO EST-2013 PRACTICAL GUIDE TO COST ESTIMATING (First Edition).pdf

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1、COVERTITLE PAGE 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.ii Practical Guide to Cost Estimating 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and T ransportation Officials. All rights reserved

2、. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.Ex Ecutiv E c ommitt EE 20122013 Officers President: Michael P . Lewis, RHODe ISLAn D Vice President: Mike

3、 Hancock, Ken Tuc Ky Secretary/T reasurer: c arlos Braceras, uT AH Immediate Past President: Kirk Steudle, P .e ., MIc HIg An Regional Representatives Reg IOn I James P . Redeker, cO nnec TIcu T c hris c lement, n e w H AMPSHIRe Reg IOn II e ugene c onti, n ORTH c AROLIn A Sheri LeBas, LOu ISIAn A R

4、eg IOn III Mark g ottlieb, w ISc On SInPaul T rombino, IOw A Reg IOn IV John c ox, wy OMIng John Halikowski, ARIz On A Non-Voting Members Immediate Past President: Kirk Steudle, P .e ., MIc HIg An e xecutive Director: Bud w right, AASHTO iii 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Tran

5、sportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.tE chnical c ommitt EE on c ost Estima ting Lesly Tribelhorn, Montana DOT , Current Chair Frank c siga, n evada DOT, Past c hair Diane Heckemeyer, Missouri DOT, Past c hair Dave Kent, New York State DOT , Current

6、 Vice Chair Edwin Okonkwo, FHWA, Current Secretary Jim Sinnette, FHw A, Past Secretary Keith Platte, AASHTO, Current Liaison Jim McDonnell, AASHTO Past Liaison Region 1 Scott BickfordMaine DOT, Past Member n orie c alvertMaryland SHA, Past Member Alan EllisVermont DOT, Current Member Mike FowlerVerm

7、ont DOT, Past Member Dave KentNew York State DOT, Current Member Matthew VincentDelaware DOT, Current Member Joe w ebern ew Jersey DOT, Past Member Region 2 g eorge Bradfieldg eorgia DOT, Past Member Greg DavisFlorida DOT, Current Member Jim FrickSouth c arolina DOT, Past Member Ryan g riffithKentuc

8、ky Tc , Past Member Theron KnouseVirginia DOT, Current Member Charles NickelLouisiana DOTD, Current Member Harry RankinMississippi DOT, Past Member Darrell RichardsonGeorgia DOT, Current Member Region 3 Roger BierbaumIowa DOT, Past Member Janet BlacikMinnesota DOT, Past Member Mike GinnatyMinnesota

9、DOT , Current Member Diane HeckemeyerMissouri DOT, Past c hair Jeff HisemOhio DOT , Current Member T ravis KoestnerMissouri DOT, Past Member Natalie RoarkMissouri DOT , Current Member Region 4 Maria BurkeTexas DOT, Past Member Frank c sigan evada DOT, Past c hair Jay DryeWashington State DOT , Curre

10、nt Member John RiedlOregon DOT , Current Member Ken SpearWyoming DOT , Current Member Lesly TribelhornMontana DOT , Current Chair Jack YoungCalifornia DOT , Current Member iv Practical Guide to Cost Estimating 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights

11、 reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.v ac Kno Wl EDgm Ents This guidance is the result of several years of hard work that began with the AASHTO Subcommittee on Design Technical Committee on Cost Estimating (TCCE). TCCE members drafted the content of the guidance in 2004, working o

12、n two to three chapters a year based on personal experience as cost estima- tors, while continuing to do their full-time jobs. In an effort to expedite the production of the document, TCCE utilized the NCHRP 20-7 process, specifically Tasks 278 and 308, to take the initial guidance and complete the

13、guide. TCCE would like to thank Keith Molenaar and Christofer Harper from University of Colorado, Stuart Anderson from Texas Transportation Institute, and Clifford Schexnayder from Arizona State University for their contributions and co-authoring the completed guide. TCCE would also like to thank An

14、drew Lemer from NCHRP . This guide would not be in existence today without the dedication and passion from both the past and current TCCE members who often worked nights and weekends to make the publication of this document possible. 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportati

15、on Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.Contents SUMMARY xv CHAPTER 1 Practical Guide to Cost Estimating Overview .1-11.1 Introduction .1-11.1.1 Background .1-21.1.2 Purpose 1-21.1.3 Audience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

16、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-21.2 Project Development Phases.1-31.2.1 Cost Estimating Process 1-51.2.2 Estimating Focus .1-81.3 Overall Guidebook Structure.1-91.3.1 Part IKey Estimate Techniques .1-91.3.2 Part IICost Management .1-101.4 Roadmap for Guide Use .1-111.5 Chapt

17、er 1 References .1-11 PART I. KEY ESTIMATE TECHNIQUES CHAPTER 2 Conceptual Estimating 2-12.1 Overview .2-12.1.1 What Is It? 2-12.1.2 Why Use It? .2-22.1.3 When to Use It? 2-22.2 Key Inputs.2-22.2.1 Project Definition .2-22.2.2 Project Characteristics .2-32.2.3 Historical Database Requirements 2-32.2

18、.4 Macro-Environment and Market Conditions2-142.3 Prepare Base Estimate 2-142.3.1 Select Appropriate Estimating Approach 2-152.3.2 Determine Estimate Components and Quantify .2-182.3.3 Develop Estimate Data2-192.3.4 Compile Cost Estimate2-212.3.5 Document Estimate Assumptions and Other Estimate Info

19、rmation.2-212.3.6 Prepare Estimate Package .2-222.4 Determine Risk and Set Contingency .2-222.4.1 Contingency2-222.5 Quality Assurance and Quality Control 2-232.5.1 What to Check? .2-242.6 Summary 2-242.7 Project Examples 2-242.7.1 Bridge Project 2-242.7.2 Asphalt Paving Project 2-262.7.3 Paving and

20、 Bridge Project .2-27 vii 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. 2.8 Chapter 2 References .2-292.9 Chapter 2 Additional Resources .2-29 CHAPTER 3 Bid-Based Estimates 3-13.1 Overview .3-13.1.1

21、What Is It? 3-13.1.2 Why Use It? .3-13.1.3 When to Use It? 3-13.2 Key Inputs.3-23.2.1 Project Definition .3-23.2.2 Project Characteristics .3-23.2.3 Historical Database Requirements 3-23.2.4 Macro-Environmental and Market Conditions .3-63.3 Prepare Base Estimates.3-73.3.1 Select Appropriate Estimati

22、ng Approach .3-73.3.2 Quantify Estimate Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-83.3.3 Develop Estimate Data.3-93.3.4 Compile Cost Estimate3-173.3.5 Document Assumptions .3-173.3.6 Prepare Estimate Package .3-183.3.7 Risk Analysis and Cont

23、ingency3-183.4 Quality Assurance and Quality Control 3-193.4.1 How to Check? .3-193.5 Summary 3-193.6 Project Example .3-193.6.1 Excavation.3-243.6.2 Pavement Structure 3-243.7 Chapter 3 References .3-25 CHAPTER 4 Cost-Based Estimates .4-14.1 Overview .4-14.1.1 What Is It? 4-14.1.2 Why Use It? .4-14

24、.1.3 When to Use It? 4-24.2 Key Inputs.4-24.2.1 Historical Database Requirements 4-24.2.2 Labor Cost4-34.2.3 Equipment Cost 4-34.2.4 Material Cost Data 4-64.2.5 Subcontract Items 4-64.2.6 Macro-Environment Market Conditions 4-64.3 Prepare Base Estimate .4-74.3.1 Project Definition .4-74.3.2 Project

25、Characteristics .4-74.3.3 Labor Pricing 4-84.3.4 Equipment Pricing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-94.3.5 Material Pricing .4-114.3.6 Subcontract Pricing 4-12 viii Practical Guide to Cost Estimating 2013 by the American As

26、sociation of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. 4.3.7 Contractor Indirect/Overhead and Profit.4-124.3.8 Adjustments 4-144.3.9 Compilations .4-154.3.10 Document Assumptions 4-164.3.11 Risk Analysis to Set Contingency .4-184.4

27、 Quality Assurance/Quality Control .4-184.4.1 How to Check? .4-194.5 Summary 4-194.5.1 Deliverables 4-204.6 Project Example .4-204.6.1 Concrete Estimate .4-204.7 Chapter 4 References .4-264.8 Chapter 4 Additional Resources .4-26 CHAPTER 5 Risk-Based Estimates .5-15.1 Overview .5-15.1.1 What Is It? 5

28、-15.1.2 Why Use It? .5-25.1.3 When to Use It? 5-25.2 Key Inputs.5-35.2.1 Project Complexity5-35.2.2 Design and Estimate Assumptions and Concerns .5-45.3 Determine Risk and Set Contingency 5-55.3.1 Determine Risk 5-55.3.2 Set Contingency5-85.4 Quality Assurance and Quality Control 5-205.4.1 How to Ch

29、eck? .5-205.5 Summary 5-215.6 Project Examples 5-215.6.1 WSDOT Cost Risk Assessment Example 5-215.6.2 Caltrans Probabilistic Risk-Based Estimate Example5-245.7 Chapter 5 References .5-26 PART II. COST MANAGEMENT CHAPTER 6 Inflationary Considerations.6-16.1 Overview .6-16.1.1 What Is It? 6-16.1.2 Why

30、 Use It? .6-26.1.3 When to Use It? 6-26.2 Key Inputs.6-36.2.1 Data Availability6-36.2.2 Conceptual Model Types .6-76.2.3 Data Collection Approaches.6-86.3 Key Analysis Tools 6-96.3.1 Indices .6-96.3.2 Static Analysis 6-116.3.3 Regression Modeling .6-126.4 Who Does It? .6-14 ix 2013 by the American A

31、ssociation of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. 6.4.1 Internal Agency-Developed Forecasts .6-146.4.2 Consultants 6-156.4.3 Combined Internal and Consultant Efforts .6-156.5 Construction Cost Updating Frequency6-166.5.1 Semi

32、-Annually 6-166.5.2 Annually 6-166.6 Summary 6-166.7 Project Example .6-176.8 Chapter 6 References .6-19 CHAPTER 7 Letting Strategies for Cost Control .7-17.1 Overview .7-17.1.1 What Is It? 7-27.1.2 Why Use It? .7-27.1.3 When to Use It? 7-27.2 Key Inputs.7-27.2.1 Historical Bidding Studies 7-37.2.2

33、Macro-Environmental/Market Conditions.7-47.2.3 Letting Strategies .7-57.3 Strategies to Improve Bid Responsiveness.7-57.3.1 Scheduling of Projects for Bid .7-57.3.2 Balancing of Projects in a Letting .7-77.3.3 Packaging of Projects into Proposals 7-87.3.4 Contractor-Selected Packaging of Projects 7-

34、97.3.5 Contractor-Imposed Award Limits on Multiple Projects .7-107.3.6 Flexible Start Dates 7-117.3.7 Use of Alternatives .7-137.3.8 Price Adjustment Clauses7-157.4 Quality Assurance/Quality Control .7-167.4.1 Number of Bidders vs. Contract Amount 7-177.4.2 Ideas .7-187.5 Summary 7-187.5.1 The Strat

35、egies 7-187.6 Review Example .7-197.6.1 The Woodrow Wilson Bridge Experience 7-197.7 Chapter 7 References .7-207.8 Chapter 7 Additional Information 7-227A AppendixPackaging of Projects Policy Guidance .7-23 CHAPTER 8 Analysis of Contractor Bids.8-18.1 Overview .8-18.1.1 What Is It? 8-18.1.2 Why Use

36、It? .8-28.1.3 When to Use It? 8-28.2 Key Inputs.8-28.2.1 Historical Unit Bid Data 8-28.2.2 Letting Unit Bid Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-38.2.3 Bid Documents 8-4 x Practical Guide to Cost Estimating 2013 by the America

37、n Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. 8.2.4 Macro-Environmental/Market Conditions.8-58.2.5 PS&E Estimate and Supporting Data8-58.2.6 Number of Bidders and Current Backlogs 8-68.2.7 Low Bidders Performance Histo

38、ry8-68.3 Bid Review Process8-78.3.1 Competition Review.8-88.3.2 Market Review .8-98.3.3 Distribution and Range of Bids.8-98.3.4 Unbalanced Cost Review Prior to Unit Price Comparisons .8-108.3.5 Unit Price Comparison with PS&E Estimate8-118.3.6 Constructability Review .8-128.3.7 Collusion Detection 8

39、-128.3.8 Review Team Recommendation.8-148.4 Project Sponsor Review and Response 8-158.5 Agency Decision .8-168.6 Summary 8-168.7 Review Examples 8-178.7.1 The Market 8-178.7.2 Very Low Bids 8-188.8 Chapter 8 References .8-19 CHAPTER 9 Performance Measures for Cost Estimating .9-19.1 Overview .9-19.1

40、.1 What Is It? 9-19.1.2 Why Use It? .9-19.1.3 When to Use It? 9-29.2 Key Inputs.9-29.2.1 STIP Performance Measures 9-29.2.2 PS&E Performance Measures9-39.2.3 Additional Cost Estimating Performance Measures9-59.3 Developing Effective Performance Measures .9-79.3.1 Performance Measurement Program Fram

41、ework .9-79.3.2 Major Characteristics of Effective Performance Measures .9-99.3.3 Analysis and Results9-119.4 Summary 9-119.5 Chapter 9 References .9-119.6 Chapter 9 Additional Resources .9-12 CHAPTER 10 Definitions .10-1 List of Figures Figure 1-1. Project Development Phases (NCHRP 8-49). .1-4 Figu

42、re 1-2. General Cost Estimating Process1-7 Figure 1-3. Application of Contingency1-8 Figure 2-1. Typical Section (NUU = New Construction Undivided Urban). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-5 xi 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights res

43、erved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.Figure 2-2. Bridge Cost Factors.2-11 Figure 2-3. Lane-Mile Costs Based on Completed Projects Source: Cost Estimation 2008 2-12 Figure 2-4. Typical TRACER System Input for a Bridge. .2-16 Figure 2-5. Typical TRACER Beam Input for a Bridge. 2-17 Figu

44、re 2-6. Typical TRACER Output for a Bridge. 2-18 Figure 2-7. Project Estimate File Outline .2-23 Figure 2-8. Project A Location Map and Existing Cross Section 2-28 Figure 3-1. Typical Data Entry Form3-4 Figure 3-2. Spreadsheet Used to Import Bid Data3-5 Figure 3-3. Typical Database Query. 3-10 Figur

45、e 3-4. Historical Bid Analysis Using Regression.3-11 Figure 3-5. Section NB 10+00 to NB 35+00 of the Roadway Plan. 3-21 Figure 3-6. Typical Pavement Cross Section. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-22 Figure 3-7. Cross Section for Earthwork Cal

46、culation at NB 28+00 (Section A).3-22 Figure 3-8. Cross Section for Earthwork Calculation at NB 23+00 (Section B).3-23 Figure 3-9. Cross Section for Earthwork Calculation at NB 28+00 (Section C). .3-23 Figure 4-1. Earthwork Hauling Equipment vs. Haul Distance. 4-5 Figure 5-1. Refinement of a Cost Es

47、timate.5-3 Figure 5-2. Three-Tier Approach to Contingency Estimation5-8 Figure 5-3. Sliding Scale for Non-Complex (Minor) Projects. 5-10 Figure 5-4. Sliding Scale for Moderately Complex Projects. .5-11 Figure 5-5. Sliding Scale for Most Complex (Major) Projects.5-11 Figure 5-6. Mean and Mode in Norm

48、al and Lognormal Distributions. .5-15 Figure 5-7. Distributions for Risk Analysis Input. .5-16 Figure 5-8. Example Sensitivity Analysis with Tornado Diagram5-17 Figure 5-9. Typical Monte Carlo Output for Total Costs.5-18 Figure 5-10. Example Risk Management Template. .5-19 Figure 5-11. Example of Pr

49、obabilistic Risk-Based Estimate Output from WSDOT. 5-23 Figure 5-12. Example of Probabilistic Risk-Based Estimate Template from Caltrans .5-25 Figure 6-1. Asphalt Data from 2002 through 2009. 6-6 Figure 6-2. The CPI and the BHWY over an 11- Year Period.6-10 Figure 6-3. An Example of a Regression Model Created to Model the ODOTs Cost Index. .6-13 Figure 7-1. Caltrans Comparison of the Low Bid vs. the Engineers Estimate.7-3 Figure 7-2. IADOT Project Letting Announcement 7-7 Figure 7-3. Effect of Number of Bidders Average Unit Price7-8 F