Technological Evolution.ppt

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1、Technological Evolution,Reverse Engineering the Human Brain,Pete, Steve, Malaya, Craig, Binu,Six Epochs of Evolution,Epoch-1 Physics and Chemistry Atomic molecules Epoch-2 Biology/Information in DNA Epoch-3 Brains/Information in neural patterns Epoch-4 Technology/Information in hardware and software

2、 Epoch-5 Merger of Technology and Human Intelligence Epoch-6 The Universe Awakens mater and energy in the universe become saturated with intelligent process and knowledge,The Singularity is Near,“I set the date for the singularity repressing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capabili

3、ty as 2045. The non biological intelligence created in that year will be one billion more powerful than all human intelligence today” KurzweilWhat is the Singularity?,Law of Accelerating Returns,Law of Accelerating Returns,Historical Context,20th century progress is equivalent to last 20 years of 20

4、00, the next 20 in 14years, and the next in 7years Stone tools, fire, wheel took 10,000 years Printing press took a 100 years to be adopted First computer designed with pencil on paper 50 Human genome took 13 yrs vast % towards the latter years,Evolution,Advanced mammals add 1cubic inch of brain mat

5、ter every 100K years Doubling computational capacity every year,Kurzweils Timeline,Timeline: The Future According to Ray Kurzweil (JANUARY 09, 2006 Computer World article) 2010: Computers become invisible 2013: Human brain functional simulation 2020: $1k buys a computer working at 10 quadrillion, or

6、 1016, calculations per second. (Human brain functional simulation) 2025: Computer are able to simulate the entire human brain. (Neural Upload) 2030: Non-biological intelligence matches human intelligence in range and subtlety; $1k buys a computer 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain. 2045

7、: The point of “singularity“ is reached, when technical progress is so fast that unenhanced human intelligence cant follow it. One can no longer distinguish between our biology and our technology. 2050: Computing will exceed the processing power of all humans on Earth for $1k 22nd century: Our intel

8、ligence, biological and non-biological combined, saturates the matter and energy around us and begins to spread throughout the universe.,The Human Brain,Hardware 1014 - 1016cps 1013 1018 bits of memory Software Human Genome consists of 800 million bytes : remove the redundancy 109,Hardware Advanceme

9、nt 3 x 1015cps (Blue Gene/p) 1012( accessible in 14 nano-seconds) Quantum dots 1 sq inch. Software MS Word 109,Human Brain achieves 3 dimensional processing via folding,Software Developments,Audio sensory software Neural networks, Genetic algorithms Retina Implant software Mouse brain mapped Identif

10、ied brain cancer (giloma) gene,Computational Developments,IBM Blue Gene /P 3 petaflops (3 x 1015cps) Original design and estimate for 1 petaflop Speed of light may not be a constant Quantum Computing Dr. Frank,Innovations,Nanotechnology “We are helping the military shorten its supply lines by increa

11、sing the thermal performance of its tents by reducing diesel needs by 30%” DNA Computing 6.6 x 1014cps Self Assembly Computing with Spin,Technical Barriers to Breach,Deep brain Scanning - Mapping neural activity 4 yr $55 million effort to build 3 dimensional Mapping the Visual cortex functional 3 Di

12、mensional processing AI Turing test “Turing test will be limited to controlling avatars in a virtual world-probably Second Life” Fall 2008 IBM Blue Gene,Bibliography/Reading List,http:/ http:/ http:/ http:/ Research,Network traffic efficiency maximized by emulating the neural networks Shrinking Technology lifecycle Intelligence awakening of the universe and historical research vs. ancient Hindu texts on Nirvana Universe Intelligent,Companies,http:/ IBM, Hewlett-Packard HPQ, ChevronTexaco, CVX and DuPont DD http:/ http:/ http:/,