Change and Water-Impacts Management Needs气候变化.ppt

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1、Climate Change and Water: Impacts & Management Needs 气候变化与水资源： 影响与管理需求,Roger Calow Water Policy Programme, ODI 罗杰,Overview 概述,The big picture 概括 Irrigation surface water systems 灌溉地表水系统 3.Irrigation - groundwater economies 灌溉地下水节约 4. Conclusions 总结,The most vulnerable? 最脆弱群体？,Drivers of change & man

2、agement challenges 变化动因&管理挑战,Major drivers? 主要动因？ urbanisation, industrialisation, consumption.with climate change overlay A water crisis? 水危机？ who gets what (Q, Q, R) in a variable climate: farms vs cities, upstream vs downstream, environmental vs human Adaptation challenge? 适应挑战？ mediating between

3、 competing claims: range of different scales Agricultural futures? 农业未来？ .agriculture will lose water. How? Impacts on poorer households?,Agriculture & irrigation 农业&灌溉,Two stories: Surface water irrigation (IDs) Development - state sponsored, driven Management - increasingly commercial Groundwater

4、irrigation More recent, increasingly farmer-led & opportunistic Boreholes 1949 (0) today (5M).concentrated in water scarce north Controllability, affordability.impacts,Water withdrawals in Hebei by sector, 1990 2003 河北省分部门采水量,Source: Hebei provincial WRD Statistical Yearbooks,Yellow River flows 1956

5、-2000 黄河水流量,Yellow River Allocation Plan（billion m3）,Water allocation in the Yellow River Basin 黄河流域水资源配给,Permit 1 Hangjin ID: 0.41 bcm Permits 2&3 Hetao ID: 4.77 bcm Defined under the YRCCs Water Allocation Plan (long term) and adjusted under Annual Regulation Plans (annual) Defining and protecting

6、 farmers rights?,Irrigation diversion灌溉,Water allocation basin to household 水资源分配从流域到用户,Basin Allocation Agreement,Hangjin Irrigation District 280GL（abstraction),Hetao Irrigation District,Abstraction permits,Water User Associations,Water User Associations,Channel Losses,Other users,Group water entit

7、lements,Water certificates,Household,Household,Hangjin - channel lining 夯井分渠灌溉,Channel lining and water transfer: winnersand losers? 分渠灌溉与水资源转移：赢家与输家？,Key messages IDs & water transfers 关键点IDs与水资源配给,Irrigation will lose market share Supply will fluctuate.variability will increase Deepening rights re

8、form (basin to farmer) will grow in importance Protecting the interests of poorer households as water is reallocated will depend on: Informal claims (WUAs, contracting) Sound science basin efficiencies, consumptive rights Willingness to recognise effects on 3rd parties & environmental flows,Water &

9、Agricultural Management in Hebei 河北省水资源与农业管理,Total water withdrawals in Bashang counties, 1995 2005 坝上县水资源抽取总量,Source: personal communication, Zhangjiakou City Water Affairs Bureau 2005.,Groundwater level changes recorded for three Bashang counties, 2003 2005 地下水水位变化记录,Source: Zhangjiakou City Water

10、 Affairs Bureau, 2006.,Predicted groundwater level declines in the Bashang 可预测地下水位下降情况,Source: WAMH 2004. Note: drawdown modelled over a 10 year period based on 2003 estimates of groundwater abstraction and recharge.,Irrigation development and control areas in the Bashang,Control areas - well drilli

11、ng in the Bashang 控制区井水抽取,Groundwater management challenge 地下水管理挑战,Source: Shah, 2004,WUAs & quotas,In the long-term: 长期 Scale-up to reduce free-riding Tie quotas to variable shares of aquifer safe yield,Progress: 进展 Shared allocations Conservation incentives Devolved management,A farm economy?农业经济？

12、,Shifting livelihoods 生活水平变化,Rural jobs RNFE, migration Rural incomes diverse, dispersed Dependence on CPRs - declining Drivers of change small push, big pull Sources of vulnerability income shocks Nature of community boundaries blurring Rural development narrative income, employmentVulnerable are l

13、ocked in to the old economy,Key messages protecting high value aquifers & services 主要信息保护高价值地下蓄水层&服务,Groundwater access key role in poverty reduction But monitoring patchy, numbers uncertain, impacts of climate change unclear Protecting the interests of poorer households will depend on: Extending ac

14、cess to GW irrigation Prioritising domestic water Protecting key reserves A different approach to managementdevolving tasks and functionssupported by sound science,Adaptation & development 适应与发展,Conclusions 结论,Adaptation as development 发展型适应 Climate as one pressure气候压力 Agriculture as a water bank农业=水资源银行 Rural households as winners & loserswho are the losers? 谁才是赢家与输家？,Thank you 谢谢 Beijing, February 2010 r.calowodi.org.uk www.odi.org.ukwpp,