ITU-T SERIES L SUPP 24-2016 ITU-T L 1500 C Overview of climate change effects and possible impacts (Study Group 5)《ITU-T L 1500 –气候变化影响和可能影响的概述(研究组5)》.pdf

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1、 I n t e r n a t i o n a l T e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n U n i o n ITU-T Series L TELECOMMUNICATION STANDARDIZATION SECTOR OF ITU Supplement 24 (04/2016) SERIES L: ENVIRONMENT AND ICTS, CLIMATE CHANGE, E-WASTE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY; CONSTRUCTION, INSTALLATION AND PROTECTION OF CABLES AND OTHER ELEM

2、ENTS OF OUTSIDE PLANT ITU-T L.1500 Overview of climate change effects and possible impacts ITU-T L-series Recommendations Supplement 24 ITU-T L-SERIES RECOMMENDATIONS ENVIRONMENT AND ICTS, CLIMATE CHANGE, E-WASTE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY; CONSTRUCTION, INSTALLATION AND PROTECTION OF CABLES AND OTHER ELEME

3、NTS OF OUTSIDE PLANT OPTICAL FIBRE CABLES Cable structure and characteristics L.100L.124 Cable evaluation L.125L.149 Guidance and installation technique L.150L.199 OPTICAL INFRASTRUCTURES Infrastructure including node element (except cables) L.200L.249 General aspects and network design L.250L.299 M

4、AINTENANCE AND OPERATION Optical fibre cable maintenance L.300L.329 Infrastructure maintenance L.330L.349 Operation support and infrastructure management L.350L.379 Disaster management L.380L.399 PASSIVE OPTICAL DEVICES L.400L.429 MARINIZED TERRESTRIAL CABLES L.430L.449 For further details, please r

5、efer to the list of ITU-T Recommendations. L series Supplement 24 (04/2016) i Supplement 24 to ITU-T L-series Recommendations ITU-T L.1500 Overview of climate change effects and possible impacts Summary In light of the historic Paris Agreement to combat climate change and unleash actions and investm

6、ent towards a low carbon, resilient and sustainable future agreed by 195 countries in Paris on 12 December 2015, Supplement 24 to ITU-T L-series Recommendations aims to offer a better understanding of climate change effects that could assist in the development of recommendations related to adaptatio

7、n. The Paris Agreement for the first time brings all nations into a common cause based on their historic, current and future responsibilities. The universal Paris Agreements main aim is to keep a global temperature rise this century to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to drive efforts to limit tempe

8、rature increases even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Additionally, the Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the ability to deal with the impacts of climate change. The Paris Agreement and the outcomes of the UN climate conference (COP21) cover all of the crucial areas iden

9、tified as essential for a landmark conclusion: Mitigation reducing emissions fast enough to achieve the temperature goal A transparency system and global stock-take accounting for climate action Adaptation strengthening the ability of countries to deal with climate impacts Loss and damage strengthen

10、ing ability of countries to recover from climate impacts Support including finance, for countries to build clean, resilient futures Countries will submit updated climate plans, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), every five years, thereby steadily increasing their ambition in the long

11、-term. Climate action will also be taken forward in the period before 2020. Countries will continue to engage in a process on mitigation opportunities and will put added focus on adaptation opportunities. This Supplement includes information on identifying and describing climate change effects that

12、can affect the information and communication technology (ICT) sector and other sectors. It also provides a general introduction to the identified climate change effects and describes possible impacts of climate change effects on the ICT sector, human behaviours, human health and the energy sector. T

13、his Supplement could also be used as a reference for other relevant recommendations. History Edition Recommendation Approval Study Group Unique ID* 1.0 ITU-T L Suppl. 24 2016-04-27 5 11.1002/1000/12892 Keywords Clean development mechanism (CDM), climate change, climate change adaptation, greenhouse

14、gas (GHG), information and communication technology (ICT), global warming. * To access the Recommendation, type the URL http:/handle.itu.int/ in the address field of your web browser, followed by the Recommendations unique ID. For example, http:/handle.itu.int/11.1002/1000/11830-en. ii L series Supp

15、lement 24 (04/2016) FOREWORD The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) is the United Nations specialized agency in the field of telecommunications, information and communication technologies (ICTs). The ITU Telecommunication Standardization Sector (ITU-T) is a permanent organ of ITU. ITU-T is

16、responsible for studying technical, operating and tariff questions and issuing Recommendations on them with a view to standardizing telecommunications on a worldwide basis. The World Telecommunication Standardization Assembly (WTSA), which meets every four years, establishes the topics for study by

17、the ITU-T study groups which, in turn, produce Recommendations on these topics. The approval of ITU-T Recommendations is covered by the procedure laid down in WTSA Resolution 1. In some areas of information technology which fall within ITU-Ts purview, the necessary standards are prepared on a collab

18、orative basis with ISO and IEC. NOTE In this publication, the expression “Administration“ is used for conciseness to indicate both a telecommunication administration and a recognized operating agency. Compliance with this publication is voluntary. However, the publication may contain certain mandato

19、ry provisions (to ensure, e.g., interoperability or applicability) and compliance with the publication is achieved when all of these mandatory provisions are met. The words “shall“ or some other obligatory language such as “must“ and the negative equivalents are used to express requirements. The use

20、 of such words does not suggest that compliance with the publication is required of any party. INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTSITU draws attention to the possibility that the practice or implementation of this publication may involve the use of a claimed Intellectual Property Right. ITU takes no positio

21、n concerning the evidence, validity or applicability of claimed Intellectual Property Rights, whether asserted by ITU members or others outside of the publication development process. As of the date of approval of this publication, ITU had not received notice of intellectual property, protected by p

22、atents, which may be required to implement this publication. However, implementers are cautioned that this may not represent the latest information and are therefore strongly urged to consult the TSB patent database at http:/www.itu.int/ITU-T/ipr/. ITU 2016 All rights reserved. No part of this publi

23、cation may be reproduced, by any means whatsoever, without the prior written permission of ITU. L series Supplement 24 (04/2016) iii Table of Contents Page 1 Scope . 1 2 References . 1 3 Definitions 1 3.1 Terms defined elsewhere 1 3.2 Terms defined in this Supplement 1 4 Abbreviations and acronyms 2

24、 5 Conventions 2 6 General overview of climate change adaptation . 2 7 Known effects of climate change . 2 7.1 Categories of climate change effects 2 7.2 Climate change effects relating to wind . 3 7.3 Climate change effects relating to rain . 3 7.4 Climate change effects relating to air temperature

25、 . 5 7.5 Climate change effects relating to sea temperature 5 7.6 Climate change effects relating to thunder . 8 7.7 Climate change effects relating to snow . 8 7.8 Climate change effects relating to ocean acidification . 8 7.9 Climate change effects relating to drought . 8 10 Possible impacts of cl

26、imate change effects 8 10.1 Categories of impacts . 8 10.2 Possible impacts on ICT sector 9 10.3 Possible impacts on human behaviours 9 10.4 Possible impacts on health 9 10.5 Possible impacts on the energy sector 10 Bibliography. 11 L series Supplement 24 (04/2016) 1 Supplement 24 to ITU-T L-series

27、Recommendations ITU-T L.1500 Overview of climate change effects and possible impacts 1 Scope This Supplement aims to provide a better understanding of climate change effects and so assist in the development of recommendations related to adaptation . In addition this Supplement serves as a reference

28、to other relevant recommendations. This Supplement includes information on identifying and describing climate change effects that can affect the ICT sector and other sectors. It also provides a general introduction to the identified climate change effects and describes possible impacts of climate ch

29、ange effects on the ICT sector, human behaviours, human health and the energy sector. 2 References ITU-T L.1500 Recommendation ITU-T L.1500 (2014), Framework for information and communication technologies and adaptation to the effects of climate change. ITU-T L.1501 Recommendation ITU-T L.1501 (2014

30、), Best practices on how countries can utilize ICTs to adapt to the effects of climate change. ITU-T L.1502 Recommendation ITU-T L.1502 (2015), Adapting information and communication technology infrastructure to the effects of climate change. 3 Definitions 3.1 Terms defined elsewhere This Supplement

31、 uses the following terms defined elsewhere: 3.1.1 climate change b-IPCC: Climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses a relatively broad definition, referring

32、to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external f

33、orces, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. 3.1.2 climate change adaptation b-IPCC: Adaptation to climate change can be defined as the adjustment in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and th

34、eir effects. It refers to changes in processes, practices and structures to moderate potential harm or benefit from opportunities associated with climate change. 3.2 Terms defined in this Supplement This Supplement defines the following terms: 3.2.1 climate change effect: The result of environmental

35、 items such as air temperature, sea temperature, wind, ice and snow in terms of the degree of their changes. 3.2.2 climate change impact: The influence of a climate change effect on industries and societies in terms of their behaviours, practices, structures and processes. 2 L series Supplement 24 (

36、04/2016) 4 Abbreviations and acronyms This Supplement uses the following abbreviations and acronyms: CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CDM Clean Development Mechanism ENSO El Nio-Southern Oscillation GHG Greenhouse Gas ICT Information and Communication Technology IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

37、 Change NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 5 Conventions None. 6 General overview of climate change adaptation The United Nations F

38、ramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) addresses two fundamental response strategies to cope with climate change: mitigation and adaptation. While climate change mitigation aims at tackling and reducing causes of climate change, such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption,

39、climate change adaptation aims at adjusting ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects (e.g., surface temperature change, sea level raise, coastal wetland migration, increases in intense rainfall and increases in tornados, heavy rain,

40、thunder and ice ball fall). The adaptation to such effects of climate change refers to changes in processes, practices, structures and behaviours to the moderate potential harm or benefit from opportunities associated with climate change. Adaptation is realized by, for example, reducing social infra

41、structure damages and natural disasters and/or facilitating opportunities (for example, a flood can cause a natural disaster but can also provide a water resource supply opportunity.) Information and communication technologies (ICTs) deliver innovative products and services which can have a role to

42、play at different stages of climate change adaptation processes. For additional information on ICTs and climate change adaption refer to clause 6 of ITU-T L.1501. 7 Known effects of climate change 7.1 Categories of climate change effects This Supplement does not provide an exhaustive list of climate

43、 change effects. Climate change effects can however be classified according to the following categories which impact the ICT sector: Wind Rain Air temperature Sea temperature Thunder L series Supplement 24 (04/2016) 3 Snow Ocean acidification Drought NOTE The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang

44、e (IPCC) released the study report, “Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability,“ in March 2014. The report deals with various climate change effects, impacts, adaptation, risks and opportunity aspects. This Supplement is consistent with the IPCC study report. 7.2 Climate change eff

45、ects relating to wind 7.2.1 Introduction Global warming may cause increased average and/or extreme wind speeds which, however, may be seasonally variable and geographically different. 7.2.3 Severe tornado The climate change situation may cause extremely high wind speeds and such extremely high wind

46、speeds may happen more frequently. An increase in the sea surface temperature of a source region increases the atmospheric moisture content. Increased moisture can fuel an increase in severe weather and tornado activity, particularly during the cool season. Tornadoes emit on the electromagnetic spec

47、trum. There are observed correlations between tornadoes and patterns of lightning. 7.2.4 Increase in tropical cyclone intensity The climate change situation may increase the intensity as well as the frequency of tropical cyclones where “tropical“ refers to the geographical origin of cyclones which f

48、orm generally over tropical areas. Tropical cyclones with strong winds and heavy rain can generate high waves, storm surges and tornadoes. Their power weakens when they arrive over land because they can no longer derive energy from the ocean. For this reason coastal regions are particularly vulnerab

49、le to damage from tropical cyclones compared to inland regions. Heavy rains however can cause significant flooding inland and storm surges can produce extensive coastal flooding. Though their effects on human populations are often devastating, tropical cyclones can relieve drought conditions. Tropical cyclones also carry heat energy away from the tropics and transport it toward temperate latitudes, which may play an important role in modulating regional and global climate. 7.3 Climate chan