AASHTO CA13-4-2015 Brief 13 Transit Commuting.pdf

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1、Brief 13. Transit Commuting January 2015 Commuting in a merica 2013 The National Report on Commuting Patterns and TrendsAbout the AASHTO Census Transportation Planning Products Program Established by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and the U.S. Departm

2、ent of Transportation (U.S. DOT), the AASHTO Census Transportation Planning Products Program (CTPP) compiles census data on demographic characteristics, home and work locations, and journey- to-work travel flows to assist with a variety of state, regional, and local transportation policy and plannin

3、g efforts. CTPP also supports corridor and project studies, environmental analyses, and emergency operations management. In 1990, 2000, and again in 2006, AASHTO partnered with all of the states on pooled-fund projects to sup- port the development of special census products and data tabulations for

4、transportation. These census transpor- tation data packages have proved invaluable in understanding characteristics about where people live and work, their journey-to-work commuting patterns, and the modes they use for getting to work. In 2012, the CTPP was established as an ongoing technical servic

5、e program of AASHTO. CTPP provides a number of primary services: Special Data Tabulation from the U.S. Census BureauCTPP oversees the specification, purchase, and delivery of this special tabulation designed by and for transportation planners. Outreach and TrainingThe CTPP team provides training on

6、data and data issues in many formats, from live briefings and presentations to hands-on, full-day courses. The team has also created a number of electronic sources of training, from e-learning to recorded webinars to downloadable presentations. Technical SupportCTPP provides limited direct technical

7、 support for solving data issues; the pro- gram also maintains a robust listserv where many issues are discussed, dissected, and resolved by the CTPP community. ResearchCTPP staff and board members routinely generate problem statements to solicit research on data issues; additionally, CTPP has funde

8、d its own research efforts. Total research generated or funded by the current CTPP since 2006 is in excess of $1 million. Staff Penelope Weinberger, CTPP Program Manager Matt Hardy, Program Director, Policy and Planning Jim Tymon, Chief Operating Officer/Director of Policy and Management Project Tea

9、m Steven E. Polzin, Co-Author, Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida Alan E. Pisarski, Co-Author, Consultant, Falls Church, Virginia Bruce Spear, Data Expert, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Liang Long, Data Expert, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Nancy McGuckin, Data Expert,

10、 Travel Behavior Analyst Contact Penelope Weinberger, e-mail: pweinbergeraashto.org, phone: 202-624-3556; or CTPPinfoaashto.org 2015 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. Pub Code: CA13-4 ISBN: 97

11、8-1-56051-584-5 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends Brief 13. Transit Commuting This brief is the 13th in a se

12、ries describing commuting in America. This body of work, sponsored by American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and carried out in conjunction with a National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) project that provided supporting data, builds on three prior C

13、ommuting in America documents that were issued over the past three decades. Unlike the prior reports that were single volumes, this effort consists of a series of briefs, each of which addresses a critical aspect of commuting in America. These briefs, taken together, comprise a comprehensive summary

14、 of American commuting. The briefs are disseminated through the AASHTO website (traveltrends.transportation.org). Accompany- ing data tables and an Executive Summary complete the body of information known as Commuting in America 2013 (CIA 2013). As noted in Brief 12, the auto boom appears to have co

15、mpleted its rapid growth cycle and has stabilized at very high levels, remaining the dominant mode. However, in the past decade or so, there are signs of auto commuting retrenchment and evidence that transit has increased as a commute mode. This brief presents data describing transit commuting trend

16、s and relationships. It should be noted that transit use, which hovers at around a 5 percent share for commuting, is more challenging to comprehensively analyze with statistically-sig- nificant data due to its modest share and the constraints of sample size in both American Community Survey (ACS) an

17、d National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data sources. Thus, some of the geographic and socio-demographic richness available for private vehi- cle commuting, particularly for smaller geographies, is more limited in the case of public transportation. Transit CommutingGeographic Patterns and Trends T

18、able 13-1 shows the trend in transit commuting over the past three decades. Table 13-1. Summary of Long-T erm Trends in Transit Commuting in the U.S. 1980 1990 2000 2010 (000) % (000) % (000) % (000) % T otal Workers 96,617 100.0% 115,070 100.0% 128,279 100.0% 136,941 100.0% Transit Commuters 6,008

19、6.22% 5,889 5.12% 5,869 4.58% 6,769 4.94% Source: Census, ACS 2010 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.4 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends From

20、1980 to 2010, transit commuting first declined from more than 6 million daily commuters and 6.22 percent of the workforce to 5.87 million and 4.58 percent of the work- force in 2000 before resuming growth to 6.77 million, slightly less than 5 percent of the workforce, in 2010. The data indicate a tr

21、end reversal in both levels of transit commuting and transit com- muting mode share. Based on decennial data, absolute transit commuting hit a low in 2000, as did transit mode share. Between 2000 and 2010 transit commuters increased 900,000 or over 15 percent. However, the constraint of decennial da

22、ta potentially distorts the actual inflection point in transit commuting trends. To provide additional insight on these trends, both household travel survey data and individual year ACS data were reviewed and are displayed in Figure 13-1. Figure 13-1. Long-T erm Trend in Transit Mode Share Note: Dat

23、a from NHTS 2009 are plotted for 2008 since majority of data collection occurred in 2008. Source: Census, ACS, NHTS series Figure 13-1 reveals several facts regarding transit mode share trends. The longer-term trend going back to 1970 shows moderating declines in transit mode share by decade through

24、 2000. The ACS, shown for 2005 through 2012, indicates mode share levels above the 2000 levels and with growth interrupted by some fluctuations. The NHTS data series provides additional reference points for 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2008. These data confirm the general level and direction of mode share

25、trends, but also include additional relevant information for public transportation. The NHTS is unique in that it asks questions about workers “usual mode” in the prior week, a query consistent with the U.S. Census and ACS data. However, it also gathers information on the “actual” mode for the trave

26、l survey day. In the case of public transportation, analysis of these differences indicates that “usual” transit 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Transit Share Census Journey to Work, Usual Mode American Community Survey, Work Trip Usual Mode NHTS Work Trips, Survey Day NHTS Work Trip, Work Trip Us

27、ual Mode 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.5 Brief 13. Transit Commuting trave

28、lers tend to use other modes of travel for a significant share of their commuting. In practical terms, this means that some “usual” transit commuters may use a household ve- hicle when available or in circumstances where, for example, they have a commitment after work, need to carry large items, or

29、otherwise choose an alternative mode on some days. Other “usual” transit commuters ride with others, walk, bike, or use other options when conditions allow. Mode loyalty, as measured over the prior three NHTS surveys, indicates “usual” transit commuters actually take transit approximately 70 percent

30、 of the time for their commute, but part of that shortage is offset by other “usual” mode commuters who used transit on their surveyed travel day. 1Figure 13-2 shows the total transit ridership trend as measured by passenger counts over the past several years. These data are for all trip purposes, n

31、ot just work, but they provide an additional indication of the overall trend of transit use and give some insight into the trend reversal on ridership. The data suggest a ridership trend direction change in approximately 1996. Both the decennial census data and the irregularly-sampled NHTS data brid

32、ge this inflection point. 1For additional discussion of “actual” versus “usual” mode, see Brief 10. Commuting Share of Transit Trips The importance of work trip travel for public transportation was noted in Brief 2 as constituting 30 percent of transit trips, according to NHTS. An additional estimat

33、e of transits importance to commuters can be developed by using ACS transit commuter data and applying factors to estimate commuting share of transit travel. For example, in 2012, the ACS estimated slightly more than 7 million transit commuters based on the “usual” mode. This number is adjusted to r

34、eflect the net effect of mode loyal- ty based on 2009 NHTS mode loyalty estimates arriving at approximately 5 million actual daily transit commuters. Then this number is increased by 50 percent to reflect industry average transfer rates, then doubled to reflect roundtrips, then multiplied by 230 to

35、reflect an estimate of workdays per year net of vacation, holidays, sick days, etc. This produces an estimated 3.5 billion transit commute trips per year. This is approx- imately 34 percent of the more than 10.3 billion annual transit boardings reported by industry sources. 2014 by the American Asso

36、ciation of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.6 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends Figure 13-2. Annual T otal Transit Ridership Trends Note: The American Public Transit Association

37、 (APTA) and the National Transit Data (NTD) program each gather ridership data from transit properties. There are subtle variations in reporting related to which systems report for each entity. In both cases, a transit trip refers to a traveler boarding a transit vehicle; often, travelers board mult

38、iple vehicles to complete a trip from an origin to a destination and, accordingly, are counted as making multiple transit trips. Source: APTA Fact Book 2013 (http:/ Appendix-A.pdf), NTD program (http:/www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/pubs.htm). For many commuting modes of travel, the opportu- nity to u

39、se a mode is relatively ubiquitous. For example, a roadway network and relatively high auto availability result in an auto commuting option for most travelers. Similarly, bike and walk travel options as well as carpooling are a relatively pervasive opportunity should travelers choose to avail themse

40、lves or be in situations where those are viable options. Transit, on the other hand, is not nearly as uni- versally available with many commuters not having transit service at the home and/or employment destination. The quality of service in terms of the hours of operation, fre- quency of service, s

41、peed, and cost also vary depending on both local policies and investments as influenced by local market conditions and communi- ty priorities. Thus, many commuters may not be able to choose transit commuting absent a home and or job location change. Accordingly, the geographic variation in transit c

42、ommut- ing shares is much larger, reflecting differences in transit availability and competitiveness in the particular geography. Figure 13-3 presents a trend of commuting mode share by region for the ACS reported transit sub-modes. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 19

43、95 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual Transit Trips (Millions) APTA Annual Unlinked Transit Trips NTD Annual Unlinked Transit Trips Transit use for commuting appears to have been increasing since approximately the mid-1990s. The various data s

44、uggest transits commuting mode share also has been increasing slightly. 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.7 Brief 13. Transit Commuting Figure 13-3 Transit Commuting by Region and Transit

45、Sub-Mode by Region Source: ACS 2010 Figure 13-3 shows the strong variation in transit commuting by region of the coun- try. In particular, approximately half of total transit commuting occurs in the Northeast, and this region alone has the vast majority of subway or elevated commuting and railroad c

46、ommuting. This is reflective of the availability of those options in that region and in the intensiveness of activities served by transit there. As indicated in Figure 13-4, the transit mode share trends changed very little over the 20-year time period. Of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia

47、, 25 had declining mode shares and 26 had increasing shares. The largest increases were in states with high transit use, including the District of Columbia at +2.75 percent, New Y ork at +2.69 percent, and New Jersey at +2.05 percent. The largest declines were 1.4 percent for Louisiana, 1.3 percent

48、for Illinois, 0.9 percent for Pennsylvania, and 1.1 percent for Idaho. Part of the reason these changes are modest and not more strongly positive is that this time period bridged the low point in transit use in the mid-1990s. Note that industry data indicate that the supply of transit service increa

49、sed approximately 60 percent between 1990 and 2010. 222012 Public Transportation Fact Book, Appendix A: Historical Table 8, Vehicle Total Miles Operated by Mode, showed a 68 percent increase between 1990 and 2010, and Table 10, Vehicle Total Hours Operated by Mode, showed a 55 percent increase between 1990 and 2010. 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 Northeast Midwest South West Commuters Bus or Trolley Bus Streetcar or Trolley Car Subway or Elevated Railroad Ferryboat