ICAO 9915-2008 ASIA PACIFIC AREA TRAFFIC FORECASTS 2008-2025《亚太地区空中交通预测 2008-2025》.pdf

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1、International Civil Aviation OrganizationApproved by the APA TFG and publishedby authority of the Secretary GeneralDoc 9915Report of the Fourteenth Meetingof the Asia/Pacific Area TrafficForecasting Group (APA TFG)Bangkok, 22 29 September 2008Asia/Pacific AreaTraffic Forecasts2008 2025Copyright Inte

2、rnational Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-International Civil Aviation OrganizationApproved by the APA TFG and publishedby authority of the Secretary GeneralDoc 9915Report of the Fou

3、rteenth Meetingof the Asia/Pacific Area TrafficForecasting Group (APA TFG)Bangkok, 22 29 September 2008Asia/Pacific AreaTraffic Forecasts2008 2025Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without l

4、icense from IHS-,-,-Published in English by the INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION 999 University Street, Montral, Quebec, Canada H3C 5H7 For ordering information and for a complete listing of sales agents and booksellers, please go to the ICAO website at www.icao.int ICAO Doc 9915, Asia/Paci

5、fic Area Traffic Forecasts, 20082025 Order Number: 9915-CD ISBN 978-92-9231-228-2 ICAO 2008 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing from the International Civil Av

6、iation Organization. Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-REPORT OF THE ASIA/PACIFIC AREA TRAFFIC FORECASTING GROUP (APA TFG) FOURTEENTH MEETING BANGKOK, 22 TO 29

7、SEPTEMBER 2008 Includes: Forecasts of Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific Traffic to the Year 2025 Forecasts for Major City-Pairs of Intra-Asia/Pacific and Transpacific to the Year 2012 Analysis of FIR Data Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONo

8、t for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Summary vii Introducti

9、on 1 Factors Affecting Demand for Air Travel and Traffic Trends. 2 Factors Affecting Demand for Air Travel. 2 Regional Air Traffic Trends 3 Transpacific Traffic Trends and Forecasts. 4 Geographical Scope 4 Historical Transpacific Traffic . 4 Regional Economic and Yield Developments . 8 Forecast Meth

10、odology 10 Forecast of GDP and Yield Scenarios 11 Passenger Forecast 12 Aircraft Movement Forecast . 14 Analysis of Sample Week Traffic (Historical and Forecast) 17 Intra-Asia/Pacific Traffic Trends and Forecasts 20 Geographical Scope 20 Historical Passenger Traffic 20 Forecast Methodology 20 Foreca

11、st of GDP and Yield Scenarios 22 Passenger Forecast 22 Aircraft Movement Forecast . 24 Selected Major City-Pairs within Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific 27 Scope and Methodology . 27 Passenger Forecast 27 Asia/Pacific Aircraft Movements (Peak Period) 30 Fukuoka FIR Traffic . 30 Fukuoka FIR City-P

12、airs 30 Bangkok FIR City-Pairs 34 Hong Kong FIR City-Pairs . 36 Appendix A: List of Attendees APA TFG/14 39 Appendix B: Routes and Peak-Hour Movements . 42 Appendix C: Transpacific Traffic: Route Area Codes 50 Appendix D: ICAO Statistical Regions 51 (v) Copyright International Civil Aviation Organiz

13、ation Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-

14、,-SUMMARY 1. The ICAO Pacific Area Traffic Forecasting Group was formed in 1991 with the primary objective of developing forecasts of civil aviation activity in the Transpacific market to support air navigation systems planning activity for ICAO and its Contracting States. The scope of the Group was

15、 subsequently broadened to include Intra-Asia/Pacific which is reflected in the current designation as Asia/Pacific Area Traffic Forecasting Group (APA TFG). The Group maintains close relationships with and provides essential data for regional meetings as well as groups charged with air navigation p

16、lanning and implementation in North America (NA) and Asia/Pacific (AP). This report contains forecasts produced by the Group at its fourteenth meeting held on 22-29 September 2008 in the premises of the ICAO Regional Office in Bangkok. 2. During the period 1980 to 2007, Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

17、 measured in real terms, grew at average annual growth rates of about 3.5 per cent, 2.8 per cent and 4.7 per cent for the world, the North American and Asia/Pacific regions, respectively. In the aggregate, GDP in the Transpacific area grew at 3.7 per cent (Table 2). 3. The average revenue yield, mea

18、sured in real terms, of the worlds airlines total scheduled passenger traffic decreased at an average annual rate of 2.7 per cent during the same period. It is estimated that the Transpacific yields for the period declined at an average annual rate of about 2 per cent (Table 2). 4. During the same p

19、eriod, international passenger traffic in the Transpacific market increased from 6.4 million to 29.5 million passengers, at an average annual growth rate of 5.8 per cent (Table 1). The comparable world international passenger traffic increased by 6.2 per cent per year over the same period. However,

20、the Transpacific traffic experienced a decline of some 10 per cent both in 2001 and 2003 and about 2.1 per cent in 2002. It rebounded in 2004 and increased by over 19 per cent and continued to grow by over 6 per cent in 2005. It continued to expand in 2006 and 2007 albeit at more modest growth rates

21、 (by some 1.1 and 3.3 per cent, respectively). 5. For the period 2007-2015, the GDP for the North American and Asia/Pacific regions is expected to increase at average annual rates of 2.5 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively, and for the period 2015-2025, at 2.4 per cent and 4.0 per cent per annum

22、, respectively. In the aggregate, the most likely scenario (baseline) GDP average annual growth rate for the Transpacific area is projected at 3.5 per cent for the forecast horizon 2007-2025 (Table 3). 6. Average Transpacific airline passenger yield is expected to increase in real terms by 0.3 per c

23、ent per annum for the period 2007-2015 and to decline at about 0.5 per cent annually during the period 2015-2025 (Table 3). Average Intra-Asia/Pacific yield is expected to decline only marginally over the forecast horizon, at a rate similar to that for Transpacific yield. (vii) Copyright Internation

24、al Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-7. Based on these “most likely“ GDP and yield projections, Transpacific traffic is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 5.6 per cent f

25、or the period 2007-2015, reaching some 45.7 million passengers in the year 2015. A growth rate of 5.6 per cent per annum is also expected for the period 2015-2025 resulting in a forecast of about 78.6 million passengers by the year 2025 (Table 4). 8. Consistent with the forecasts of passenger traffi

26、c growth, future expectations of load factors and average aircraft size (Table 5), total aircraft (including cargo) movements across the Pacific are expected to increase from an estimated 150 thousand in 2007 to 211 thousand in the year 2015, at an average annual growth rate of 4.4 per cent. For the

27、 whole period 2007-2025, these aircraft movements are expected to increase at an annual growth rate of 4.3 per cent, and reach 321 thousand aircraft movements by the year 2025 (Table 6). 9. Intra-Asia/Pacific passenger traffic is expected to increase at a “most likely“ average annual rate of 5.8 per

28、 cent during 2007-2015, reaching some 174.1 million passengers in the year 2015. An average annual growth rate of 5.2 per cent is forecast for the period 2015-2025, resulting in almost 290 million passengers by the year 2025 (Table 9). 10. Intra-Asia passenger aircraft movements are forecast to incr

29、ease from 950.3 thousand in 2007 to some 1 388 thousand in 2015, at an average annual growth rate of 4.8 per cent. For the period 2007 to 2025, aircraft movements are forecast to increase at an average annual growth rate of 4.4 per cent and reach some 2 078 thousand by 2025 (Table 11). 11. The selec

30、ted top 45 city-pairs in terms of numbers of passengers in the Asia/Pacific and Transpacific are expected to show traffic increases in aggregate terms of passenger flow at an average annual growth rate of 4.5 per cent from 2007 to 2012. This growth will result in an increase in passenger traffic on

31、the routes concerned from some 53.3 million passengers in 2007 to some 66.4 million passengers in the year 2012 (Table 12). (viii)Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-

32、,-,-1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 This report includes medium-term forecasts of air traffic in the Transpacific area, in the Asia/Pacific region, and for selected Transpacific and Asia/Pacific city-pair markets through to 2012. The report also contains a long-term forecast with a horizon to the year 2025, inc

33、luding a short-term forecast for 2008-2010 and intermediate forecasts for each of the years 2015 and 2020. Forecasts are provided for total passenger traffic and aircraft movements, and in the case of the aggregate Transpacific market, also for peak hour movements on selected route groups for the ye

34、ar 2012. The peak hour analysis is based on a detailed review of traffic during a typical July week of 2007 and 2008, summarized in Appendix B. 1.2 These forecasts were produced by the APA TFG at its fourteenth meeting, held in Bangkok from 22 to 29 September 2008. Representatives from Canada, China

35、, Japan and Thailand participated at the meeting (list of participants appears in Appendix A). Representatives from China attended the meeting for the first time. In addition to inputs from the participants, traffic and financial data for Transpacific market were received from the US FAA and Hong Ko

36、ng FIR data were provided by the Hong Kong SAR CAD. The Groups activities are serviced and co-ordinated by the ICAO Secretariat at Headquarters, in close consultation with the ICAO Asia and Pacific Regional Office. 1.3 The economic downturn experienced in 1997/1998 in the Asia/Pacific region had maj

37、or impacts on traffic levels, but the region regained economic strength. This was evidenced by a 5.7 per cent growth in total Asia/Pacific region GDP in 2000. The GDP of China grew at 8.0 per cent while Asias four newly industrialized economies grew by almost 10 per cent. Consequently, traffic in th

38、e Transpacific and the Intra-Asia/Pacific regions in 2000 increased by 6.8 and 5.8 per cent, respectively. Tourism in the region also benefited from the recovery and experienced high growth rates. It was against this background that the tenth meeting of the APA TFG revised the Transpacific and Intra

39、-Asia/Pacific forecasts in June 2001. In addition, forecasts of aircraft movements to the year 2015, for the Intra-Asia/Pacific route group, were introduced for the first time. The Group also considered ways and means of addressing the requirements identified by the ICAO Asia/Pacific Air Navigation

40、Planning and Implementation Regional Group (APANPIRG) and its relevant sub-groups. 1.4 The events of 11 September 2001 in the United States precipitated a sudden drop in traffic and thereby invalidated the forecasts which had been developed by the Group in June 2001, particularly as weaknesses in th

41、e global economy began to emerge and as consumer confidence eroded. 1.5 In light of the above developments, the eleventh meeting of APA TFG concentrated primarily on the revision of the Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific forecasts together with forecasts of aircraft movements to the year 2015 for t

42、he Intra-Asia/Pacific region. 1.6 The SARS outbreak had devastating effects on air traffic to, from and within the affected areas in the first half of 2003. Reported monthly figures suggest that the drop in passenger traffic reached its lowest in May after which it started a steady recovery. It is e

43、stimated that in 2003, passenger traffic on Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific routes dropped by some 10 per cent. It was against this background that the twelfth meeting of the APA TFG focussed on the revision of the medium- and long-term forecasts for Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific; the hori

44、zon of the long-term forecasts being extended to the year 2020. 1.7 The thirteenth meeting of the Group focussed on the update of the forecasts developed during the previous meeting of the Group, taking into account the developments which have taken place on both Transpacific and Intra-Asia air tran

45、sport markets since mid-2004. 1.8 The fourteenth meeting of the Group updated the forecasts for the Transpacific and Intra-Asia/Pacific markets bearing in mind the developments in these markets up to mid-2008, including the Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under li

46、cense with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,- 2 - surge in the fuel prices and the slowdown in the economy. The Group also decided to extend the time horizon of the long-term forecasts up to the year 2025. 1.9 Apart from ICAO Member States, the primary users of these area forecasts are expected to be air navigation service providers in the regions concerned and planning groups, especially APANPIRG. This information is also likely to be of interest to airports and airlines of the regions concerned to assist in