IRAQ- Democracy and the Role of Foreign Intervention.ppt

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1、1,IRAQ: Democracy and the Role of Foreign Intervention,Presentation by: Carlos Aguirre,Pols522 Dr. Buckley October 9, 2018,2,Thesis & Questions,Thesis: In a situation where the domestic conditions are incongruous with the process of democratization, Democracy in Iraq is possible if and only if coali

2、tion forces and the new Iraq government can successfully work together to establish and maintain order and security.,Questions: What is a Democracy? Are the preconditions for democracy present in Iraq? If domestic conditions are conductive to democracy, why is there a need for foreign intervention?

3、Is there a minimum level of security necessary to democratization? Is the US capable of providing enough security long enough to enable the domestic forces supporting democracy to succeed?Is Democracy ultimately possible in Iraq?,3,Introduction,Source: Pei, Minxin, Sara Kasper. “Lessons from the Pas

4、t: The American Record on Nation Building.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. May 2003,4,Introduction,James Meernik 3-year pre/post-intervention analysis 48% US military interventions left no change at all in the existing political system. HOWEVER! US Intervention to non-intervention compa

5、rison Countries who experienced US military intervention saw greater movement toward democracy. 15% more likely to democratize BUT! Violence directed at US intervention forces diminution in democratization process Counter-arguments: “An Aggressive strategy to install liberal democracy in Iraq will m

6、ost inevitably fail” (Exiting Iraq) The new regime will be a Restricted Democracy (Sorensen, 39) More democratic than the first, but not yet fully democratic. Seesawing between authoritarianism and frail democracy. “Nation-building attempts by outside powers are notable mainly for their disappointme

7、nts, not their triumphs” (Minxin Pei, 1),5,Democracy,What is a Democracy?,Greek: Demos: People, Kratos: Rule Liberal Democratic Theory: A form of government in which people rule. Mill: “Plural Voting: Participation & Equality Liberty and Self Development Democracy Complete Equality between the sexes

8、 Cosmopolitan Democracy David Held The body, welfare, culture, civic associations, the economy, and the sphere of regulatory and legal institutions. Joseph Schumpeter Democracy is simply a method for choosing political leadership,6,Democracy,Do elections mean Iraq is now a Democracy?,Elections are a

9、n important benchmark in progress toward democracy. (Dubbins, 107),7,Domestic Pre-requisites,Security Pre-requisitesUnofficial estimates on Iraqi civilian deaths: 15,000 to almost 100,000 since the March 2003 invasion. 1,300+ US troops have been killed in the same period. http:/icasualties.org/oif/“

10、There can be no economic or political development is there is no security “ (Dubbins),8,Domestic Pre-requisites,Economic Pre-requisites Economic Development The more well-to-do a nation, the greater the chances that it will sustain democracy. Industrialization The more people employed, the more demo

11、cratic a country. Urbanization More democratic countries are statistically more urbanized. Education The better educated the population of a country, the better the chances for democracy. “Education, if it does not make men good citizens, makes it a lot easier for them to become so.” (p.79) Increase

12、d Wealth Changes the social conditions of workers and affects the political role of the middle class General Income Level Affects the receptivity to democratic political tolerance norms. Affects the development of “universalistic” norms.,Main Source: Lipset, Seymour. Some Social Requirements for Dem

13、ocracy. The American Political Science Review, Vol.53, No.1 (Mar 1959),9,Domestic Pre-requisites,Economic Summary:GDP/PPP (2003 est.): $38.79 billion; per capita $1,600. Real growth rate: 20%. Inflation: 27.5%. Unemployment: n.a. Arable land: 12%. Agriculture: wheat, barley, rice, vegetables, dates,

14、 cotton; cattle, sheep. Labor force: 7.8 million (2004 est); agriculture n.a., industry n.a., services n.a. Industries: petroleum, chemicals, textiles, construction materials, food processing. Natural resources: petroleum, natural gas, phosphates, sulfur. Exports: $7.542 billion (f.o.b., 2003, est.)

15、: crude oil. Imports: $6.521 billion (f.o.b., 2003 est.): food, medicine, manufactures.,10,Domestic Pre-requisites,Political Pre-requisites: Setting up basic civil rights Democratic Autonomy (Sorensen, 10) Direct participation Socio-economic rights A bill of rights.Robert Dahl Competition among part

16、ies for political power Participation in the selection of leaders Fair elections Freedom sufficient to support political parties,11,Domestic Pre-requisites,Political Pre-requisites Lipset Intermediary Organizations (Mass Society Theory) A source of counterbalancing power State control Source of comm

17、unicating ideas and opinions Help increase the level of participation and interest in politics Legitimacy & Effectiveness Effectiveness is the actual performance of a political system. Legitimacy: the ability to persuade people into believing that the existing political institutions are the most app

18、ropriate for society. Legitimacy & Cleavage Cleavage: Conflict among different groups within a political system Cross-cutting Politically relevant affiliations Push/pull factors A stable democracy requires moderate tension among competing political forces Two-party system Parties are necessarily bro

19、ad coalitions. Territory-based elections Better than systems of proportional representation. Federalism Increases the opportunity for multiple sources of cleavage.,12,Domestic Pre-requisites,Social Pre-requisitesOne background condition: National Unity; must be in place before it is possible to conc

20、eive of a transition. (Sorensen, 41)Homogeneity versus Heterogeneity: Is social homogeneity necessary for democracy? Yes, perhaps Homogeneity helps (Somalia, Haiti, and Afghanistan)but is not a necessary condition (i.e. Bosnia, Kosovo). (Dubbins, 161-62) The wealth supplied by commerce, together w/

21、an unusually homogenous population, allowed Athens to complete democratization. (Doyle, p54) “A high degree of ethnic homogeneity (such as in Japan and Germany) makes a country more suitable for nation-building” (Pei, 4) “Ethnically fragmented countries pose extraordinary challenges because they lac

22、k a common national identity” (4),13,Domestic Pre-requisites,Demographic Information (2004 estimates)Population: 25,374,691 Ethnic groups: Arab 75%-80%, Kurdish 15%-20%, Turkoman, Assyrian or other 5% Religions: Muslim 97% (Shia 60%-65%, Sunni 32%-37%), Christian or other 3% Legal system: based on c

23、ivil and Islamic law under the Iraqi Interim Government (IG) and Transitional Administrative Law (TAL),14,Domestic Pre-requisites,Conditions,Initial Possible Consequences,Additional Consequences,Open Class SystemEqualitarian Value SystemPolitical ApathyBureaucracyMass SocietyLiteracy,Open Class Syst

24、emEconomic WealthEqualitarian Value SystemCapitalistic EconomyLiteracyHigh Participation in Voluntary Organizations,Democracy,Based on Seymour Lipsets model of Democracy,15,Comparative Cases of Democratization,Grenada Case Clearly illegal The invasion violated the territorial integrity of Grenadatra

25、mpled on the charters of the UN Constitution and OASthe US President had once again usurped the constitutional power of Congress to declare warallies in Europe were distressed.Somalia There can be no economic or political development without security. “In a lawless environment, neither production no

26、r trade can occur.Afghanistan In the absence of pervasive security, the prospects of widespread economic recovery or political development are very limited.Iraq Bosnia and Kosovo are the most comparable in terms of ambition Unlike them though, Iraq is an unstable and undemocratic region. Security ch

27、allenges are divided into 4 cats: (172) Expressive Violence Instrumental Violence Iraqi Groups Foreign Intervention,16,The Role of Foreign Intervention,American View on Foreign InterventionWoodrow Wilson fought WWI to “make the world safe for democracy.” Sent troops to Mexico to “teach the Mexicans

28、the meaning of Democracy”Reagan and Lebanon “If America were to walk awaywhat chance would there be for ademocratic Lebanon” Grenada “was a military operation to restore order and democracy.George Bush and Panama “The goals of the US have been to defend democracy in Panama”,17,The Role of Foreign In

29、tervention,Mill: “it would be a great mistake to export freedom to a foreign people that was not in a position to win it on its own.” (Doyle, 395) “A people given freedom by a foreign intervention would not be able to hold on to it.” Outcomes of such a government: They would begin to rule as they di

30、d their previous gov. They would collapse in an ensuing civil war. The intervenors would have continually to send in foreign support.Walzer : Foreign Interventions to achieve a revolution are inauthentic, ineffective, and are likely to cause more harm than good” One can intervene for humanitarian re

31、asons, to halt what appears to be a gross violation of the rights to the survival of a population. Must “Shock the conscience of mankind” (Walzer),18,The Role of Foreign Intervention,3 Justifications for humanitarian intervention (Doyle, p.412) Invasion due to a “clear oppression” Rescue will reliab

32、ly help suffering Humanitarian Intervention cannot be an excuse for imperial aggression. Humanitarian Intervention must be proportional to the suffering.,?,Why is Foreign Intervention necessary,To maintain Kants Perpetual Peace theory? To serve our own national interest?,To justify intervention in t

33、he name of high ideals such as promoting and restoring democracy, peace-keeping, serving humanitarian purposes and protecting non-combatant minorities from persecution.,To justify intervention in the name of high ideals such as promoting and restoring democracy, peace-keeping, serving humanitarian p

34、urposes and protecting non-combatant minorities from persecution.,19,Conclusion,Freedom Rating http:/www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2004/countryratings/iraq.htm,Political Rights: 7 Civil Liberties: 5* Status: Not Free Ratings Change: Iraqs civil liberties rating improved from 7 to 5 due to

35、the expansion of freedoms of expression and association. Ten Year Ratings Timeline (Political Rights, Civil Liberties, Status):,Also: Polity IV: Democratic Rating www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/polity/irq1.htm,20,Conclusion,Democracy is possible but it will prove to be a most difficult task (Dubbins) Iraq

36、has little history of Democracy Democracy will come slowly (204) Lack of democratic tradition Absence of agreement on power sharing among the countrys main ethnic, sectarian, and tribal groups. The hollowing out of Iraqs middle class. A young pop w/ little experience of the outside world. Existing power elites will resist transfer of power from their hands. Suspicion of the motives of the US/UK may hamper progress.,