International companies in post-conflict reconstruction.ppt
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1、The role and governance of the private sector,International companies in post-conflict reconstruction,Dr Peter Davis 13th March 2011,My research seeks to answer 2 questions What impacts do companies have in post-conflict reconstruction processes? How are companies integrated into those processes? Wh
2、y look at this topic? Significant increase in study of post-conflict in past 20 years But corporate role within this not understood Session on this described as “ground-breaking” at Post-Conflict People conference in London, November 2008,Companies in post-conflict reconstruction,Why a growing focus
3、 on conflict-affected zones?,More wars Estimated 150 conflicts since 1945 28 million deaths Twice the toll of WW1Recognition of collateral impact The injured Estimated 90 million since 1945 Economic development Lebanons GDP still estimated to be 50% below 1974 level by 1994. Survivors livelihoods An
4、gola has lost 80% of its farmland because of landminesGlobal geo-politics Under-pinned by the Liberal Peace thesis More latterly by conviction that failed states would harbour terrorists.,What causes conflict? Varying explanations (1),Statecraft? War is “a continuation of political intercourse, with
5、 the addition of other means.” (Clausewitz, 1832) This explanation works less well in a world where most conflicts are intra-state.Inter-communal grievance? Conflict an irrational activity, derived from “essentially inexplicable primordial qualities.” (Pugh & Cooper, 2004) Conflict the result of dis
6、putes such as religion, ethnicity, power etcEconomic greed? “War occurs if the incentive for rebellion is sufficiently large relative to the costs.” (Collier-Hoeffler, 2004) High correlation between low levels of income and conflict risk.,The result of weak state power? States that are unable to pro
7、ject power through their territory (Holsti, 2006) Warlord states Rentier statesThe New War thesis? Identity politics - identity based on national, religious, linguistic or ethnic factors as key cause of conflict Driven by globalisation All of the above? Levels of analysis approach International Soci
8、al Conflicts, which “are neither pure international (interstate) conflicts, nor pure social (domestic) conflicts, but sprawl somewhere between the two.”(Maill, Ramsbotham and Woodhouse, 2007).,What causes conflict? Varying explanations (2),What actually is reconstruction all about?,Reconstruction as
9、 sets of different tasks For example, as defined in Post Conflict Reconstruction Essential Tasks Matrix (US Department of State) Though not defined until 2005! The tasks of reconstruction divide into four overlapping but roughly sequential clusters: Physical security, trust-building and stability Cr
10、eating a peace infrastructure Governance, political transition, and self-government Economic development that is broadly based,Corporate impacts in 3 post-conflict theatres,Based on in-depth research (literature & field work) All 3 countries rather a mixed bag Azerbaijan Huge wealth from oil Greater
11、 Baku vs rest of the country Absence of coherent reform process Bosnia Physical reconstruction impressive, but remains a frozen conflict Political dead-lock, only broken by use of OHR powers A colony of the international community? Rwanda Hugely ambitious reform plan Vision 2020 but how realistic? E
12、conomy remains highly aid-dependent Questionable governance,Impacts: Economic Development,Financial impact the most obvious Azerbaijan: BTC alone estimated cost $3.7bn Rwanda: $350m Kivuwatt power generation facility Wider impact of applying normal business models Training and local partner developm
13、ent Local procurement BP spends $1.5bn on local suppliers (cf c $800m on foreign suppliers) Bralirwa estimates it provides employment for 35,000 families. “A certain professionalism” International rules of the road for business surely more effective than donor BDS programmes? Failure to attract furt
14、her FDI is why Rwanda and BiH remain unhealthily aid-dependent.,Impacts: Infrastructure development,Hard infrastructure physical stuff Largely a state-run activity Some notable exceptions Azerbaijan: BTC and oil infrastructure Rwanda: Kivuwatt / solid fuel generation Importance of soft infrastructur
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