The Disregard of Science and the Responsibility of Scientists.ppt

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1、The Disregard of Science and the Responsibility of Scientists,Alan Kaylor Cline Department of Computer Sciences The University of Texas at Austin October 6, 2005,2005 Visions of Computer Sciences Research Lecture,In the 2004, presidential election, of those Texans who voted for either Kerry or Bush,

2、62% voted for Bush and 38% for Kerry. Of the Massachusetts residents who voted for either Kerry or Bush, 37% voted for Bush and 63% for Kerry. Bill was a Kerry voter. He comes from either Texas or Massachusetts but I know nothing more about him. Is it more likely that he comes from Texas or from Mas

3、sachusetts?,Ooops. I need to tell you that: in Texas there were 7.4 million voters for either Kerry or Bush and in Massachusetts there were only 2.9 million such voters.,Ooops. I need to tell you that in Texas there were 7.4 million voters for either Kerry or Bush and in Massachusetts there were 2.9

4、 million such voters. Thus, of the Kerry voters from the two states, 61% came from Texas and only 39% came from Massachusetts.,Thus, of the Kerry voters from the two states, 61% came from Texas and only 39% came from Massachusetts. So Bill is more likely a Texan.,Do regular folks understand that stu

5、ff?,The Great Debate: Kennedy, Nixon, and Television in the 1960 Race for the Presidency,by Liette Gidlow Associate Professor of History, Bowling Green State University “The debates made Kennedy look like a winner. His practice of looking at the camera when answering the questions - and not at the j

6、ournalists who asked them, as Nixon did - made viewers see him as someone who was talking directly to them and who gave them straight answers. Kennedys performance showed not only that he was a knowledgeable and credible elected official, but also that he just plain looked better. The often repeated

7、 story - which is in fact true - is that polls taken after the first debate showed that most people who listened to it on the radio felt that Nixon had won, while most who watched it on television declared Kennedy the victor.” The Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History, 2004.,Third Factor Avai

8、lability of Television,But in 1960, rural areas (where more Republicans lived) were less likely to have television than urban areas (where more Democrats lived). Couldnt this predisposition to like ones own partys candidate explain the difference?,Do regular folks understand that stuff?,Maybe regula

9、r folks dont but The National Institute on Drug Abuse should. From Marijuana: Facts Parents Need to Know, 2005: “ Question: Does using marijuana lead to other drugs? Answer: Long-term studies of high school students and their patterns of drug use show that very few young people use other drugs witho

10、ut first trying marijuana, alcohol, or tobacco. ”,So I will prepare my own manual. From A. K. Cline: Statistical Nonsense to Mislead Parents. (Never actually to be published) “ Question: Does using water lead to other drugs? Answer: Long-term studies of high school students and their patterns of dru

11、g use show that absolutely no young people use other drugs without first trying water. ”,That manual has such a gross abuse of statistics that one must wonder if it was done deliberately.,Two Stories of Carolyn,At her middle schools Parents Night, her science teacher described a project where studen

12、ts drew pictures of the creation of the world. “Anything was OK,” she said.,Two Stories of Carolyn,At her middle schools Parents Night, her science teacher described a project where students drew pictures of the creation of the world. “Anything was OK,” she said. In her high school biology class, a

13、student asked “Why do humans not have bones in their outer ears?”.,Two Stories of Carolyn,At her middle schools Parents Night, her science teacher described a project where students drew pictures of the creation of the world. “Anything was OK,” she said. In her high school biology class, a student a

14、sked “Why do humans not have bones in their outer ears?”. The teacher responded “I guess thats just the way God made us.”,Two Stories of Carolyn,At her middle schools Parents Night, her science teacher described a project where students drew pictures of the creation of the world. “Anything was OK,”

15、she said. In her high school biology class, a student asked “Why do humans not have bones in their outer ears?”. The teacher responded “I guess thats just the way God made us.” The principal said “Thats an OK answer.”,Science is not understood.Science is not accepted.Science is not supported.Science

16、 is undercut by politicians.,1. Science is not understood.,Science is taught in elementary and high schools as formulas and facts not as experimentation and inquiry. The scientific method is one more fact to be memorized. Occams Razor is ignored.,1. Science is not understood.,Science is taught in el

17、ementary and high schools as formulas and facts not as experimentation and inquiry. The scientific method is one more fact to be memorized. Occams Razor is ignored. Lights in the sky are UFOs.,Science is not understood. Some examples,Risk is inevitable part of life yet:From October to December 2001,

18、 the number of car accident deaths nationwide climbed by more than 1,000 over the same period a year earlier because fears of terrorism on airplanes had increased car travel.,Science is not understood. Some examples,Risk is inevitable part of life yet:The “morning after pill” Plan B was not approved

19、 by the FDA because it was claimed (by FDA administrators) the manufacturer had not proven it was safe for 16 year olds to buy over the counter.,Science is not understood. Some examples,Risk is inevitable part of life yet:The “morning after pill” Plan B was not approved by the FDA because it was cla

20、imed (by FDA administrators) the manufacturer had not proven it was safe for 16 year olds to buy over the counter. What was not considered was the alternative risk of pregnancy for 16 year olds.,2. Science is not accepted.,Consider these beliefs found by the Gallup Organization in a survey of 1003 A

21、merican adults from March 6 to March 8, 2005,Astrology - 25% believers,Communication with the Dead 21%,ETs visited Earth - 24%,Mental Telepathy 31%,ESP 41%,Ghosts 32%,Haunted Houses 37%,People are Possessed by the Devil 42%,You may find those beliefs harmless (although I dont), but how about this?,G

22、allup Polls: 1999-2004,Im going to read you a list of environmental problems. As I read each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all. How much do you personally worry about.Damage to the earths ozone layer?,That is, the

23、 worries decreased as the ozone was depleted.,and how about this?,Harris Poll: June 17-21, 2005 n = 885 adults,Which of the following do you believe about how human beings came to be? Human beings evolved from earlier species. Human beings were created directly by God. Human beings are so complex th

24、at they required a powerful force or intelligent being to help create them.,64%,22%,Which as we know has led to ,Harris Poll: June 17-21, 2005 n = 885 adults,Regardless of what you may personally believe, which of these do you believe should be taught in public schools? Evolution only, Creationism o

25、nly, Intelligent design only, All three.,12%,23%,4%,55%,3%,3%,3. Science is not supported.,Theres money and theres ideas,NASAs aeronautics cuts still loomingUnless the House fights the Senate bill, the Hampton center could lose a quarter of its workforce.,Daily Press, Newport News, VA September 16,

26、2005:,Department of Defense research Funding for Fiscal Year 2006,Basic research funding (category 6.1) falls 4%. DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) would have an overall 4.2% increase But DARPA funding for university Information Technology research has fallen from $214M in 2001 to $1

27、23M in 2004 a 43% loss.,3. Science is not supported.,News Media: Promote the notion that truth is obtained through advocacy of two sides,Use “sound bites” that encourages simplistic reasoning,Conduct “interviews” with pre-written questions and allow non-responses to pass.,3. Science is not supported

28、.,News Media: Promote the notion that truth is obtained through advocacy of two sides,Use “sound bites” that encourages simplistic reasoning,Conduct “interviews” with pre-written questions and allow non-responses to pass.,None of that directly involves science but it does affect the publics notion o

29、f expectations for rational thinking.,Daily Headlines:,Feds Drop Boreal Toad From Protected List Global sea levels could rise 30 cm by 2100- study House to Act on Endangered Species Law Warming causes record Arctic ice melt: U.S. report US policy hinders global space cooperation -report Bush set to

30、shun G8 allies on global warming Senate Rejects Greenhouse Gas Limits How high-pressure politics threatens action on climate ACLU Says Bush Is Restricting Science Experts question medical ethics at Guantanamo,4. Science is undercut by politicians.,“Preeminent Scientists Protest Bush Administrations

31、Misuse of Science - Nobel Laureates, National Medal of Science Recipients, and Other Leading Researchers Call for End to Scientific Abuses”Union of Concerned Scientists February 18, 2004,4. Science is undercut by politicians.,“Preeminent Scientists Protest Bush Administrations Misuse of Science - No

32、bel Laureates, National Medal of Science Recipients, and Other Leading Researchers Call for End to Scientific Abuses”Union of Concerned Scientists February 18, 2004,They allege:,Agency Abuses: The Environment,Deleting Scientific Advice on Endangered Salmon: Scientists asked to remove science-based r

33、ecommendations from an official report Endangered Species: Florida Panther, Bull Trout, Trumpeter Swans: Research at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is distorted and suppressed Mountaintop Removal Mining: Administration officials intentionally disregard extensive scientific study on mountaintop r

34、emoval in Appalachia Climate Change: Administration officials undermined science behind climate change by suppressing reports and publicly misrepresenting scientific consensus Mercury Emissions: White House suppressed information about the impact of mercury on public health Multiple Air Pollutants:

35、The Environmental Protection Agency withheld an analysis showing the benefits of a bipartisan alternative to President Bushs Clear Skies Act The Endangered Species Act: Administration officials are manipulating the scientific underpinnings of the policy making process Forest Management: A “review te

36、am“ primarily composed of non-scientists overruled a science-based plan for managing old-growth forest habitat and reducing fire risk,Agency Abuses: Public Health,Emergency Contraception: FDA appointees overruled staff scientists and two independent advisory panels to deny access to emergency contra

37、ception Abstinence-only Education: The Administration has obscured scientific evaluation of abstinence-only education programs and pressured scientists to promote abstinence. HIV/AIDS Education: The CDC was ordered to change its website to raise scientifically questionable doubt about the effectiven

38、ess of condoms in preventing the spread of HIV/AIDS. Airborne Bacteria: A microbiologist was prohibited at least 11 times from publishing research on airborne bacteria originating from farm wastes. Breast Cancer: Information suggesting a link between abortion and breast cancer was posted on a Nation

39、al Cancer Institute website despite objections from staff scientists.,Science Advisory Committees,Fogarty International Center Advisory Board: Qualified scientists, including a Nobel Laureate, were rejected after being subjected to political litmus tests. Presidents Council on Bioethics: Two leading

40、 scientists were dismissed from the panel because of dissenting opinions on the ethics of biomedical research. Arms Control Panel: A scientific committee that advised the State Department on matters of arms control was dismissed and never reappointed. Army Science Board: An engineer was rejected fro

41、m a panel because of a contribution to John McCains 2000 presidential bid. National Nuclear Security Administration Panel: A committee set up to advise the administration on scientific issues regarding the maintenance nations nuclear weapons stockpile and the design and testing of new nuclear warhea

42、ds was dismissed. NIH: Drug Abuse Panel: Potential panel members were asked if they voted for President Bush. Lead Poisoning Prevention Panel: Staff-recommended scientists are rejected from a panel considering acceptable levels of lead in drinking water and replaced by appointees with financial ties

43、 to the lead industry. Workplace Safety Panel: Well-qualified scientists were rejected from a panel that evaluates grants for workplace injuries because of their support for a workplace ergonomics standard. Reproductive Health Advisory Committee: An underqualified nominee was suggested as chair of a

44、n FDA committee on reproductive health despite scant credentials and highly partisan political views.,Is there confusion?,These are science questions: Is this drug safe? Is this species endangered? Is this chemical toxic?,Is there confusion?,These are science questions: Is this drug safe? Is this sp

45、ecies endangered? Is this chemical toxic? These are public policy questions: Will the use of this drug offend a constituency? Should we develop this land? Should we force this plant to clean up?,Is there confusion?,These are science questions: Is this drug safe? Is this species endangered? Is this c

46、hemical toxic? These are public policy questions: Will the use of this drug offend a constituency? Should we develop this land? Should we force this plant to clean up?,Must the two be conflicted?,What Can We Do?,Stop treating anti-scientists as retarded,What Can We Do?,Stop treating anti-scientists

47、as retarded Confront them,What Can We Do?,Explain to creationists that far more science than evolutionary biology must be rejected if a literal interpretation of the bible is accepted: Astronomy few stars are within 6,000 light years of earth Biology how long would it have taken Noah to collect ever

48、y species? Physics could a ship big enough to hold every species be constructed from wood? Chemistry whats the error with carbon dating? Geology can all these rocks be so young?,What Can We Do?,Ask proponents of intelligent design:Who designed the designer?,What Can We Do?,Ask proponents of intellig

49、ent design:Who designed the designer?Either they fall into a cyclical logical fallacy Or They have to rely upon a god (which is what they claim the theory of intelligent design avoids),What Can We Do?,In education: Speak to teachers and administrators when anti-science is practiced,What Can We Do?,In education: Speak to teachers and administrators when anti-science is practiced, Get the PTAs to help,What Can We Do?,In education: Speak to teachers and administrators when anti-science is practiced, Get the PTAs to help, Run for school boards.,