AASHTO CA06-4-2015 Brief 6 Job Dynamics.pdf

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1、Brief 6. Job Dynamics January 2015 Commuting in a merica 2013 The National Report on Commuting Patterns and TrendsAbout the AASHTO Census Transportation Planning Products Program Established by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and the U.S. Department of

2、 Transportation (U.S. DOT), the AASHTO Census Transportation Planning Products Program (CTPP) compiles census data on demographic characteristics, home and work locations, and journey- to-work travel flows to assist with a variety of state, regional, and local transportation policy and planning effo

3、rts. CTPP also supports corridor and project studies, environmental analyses, and emergency operations management. In 1990, 2000, and again in 2006, AASHTO partnered with all of the states on pooled-fund projects to sup- port the development of special census products and data tabulations for transp

4、ortation. These census transpor- tation data packages have proved invaluable in understanding characteristics about where people live and work, their journey-to-work commuting patterns, and the modes they use for getting to work. In 2012, the CTPP was established as an ongoing technical service prog

5、ram of AASHTO. CTPP provides a number of primary services: Special Data Tabulation from the U.S. Census BureauCTPP oversees the specification, purchase, and delivery of this special tabulation designed by and for transportation planners. Outreach and TrainingThe CTPP team provides training on data a

6、nd data issues in many formats, from live briefings and presentations to hands-on, full-day courses. The team has also created a number of electronic sources of training, from e-learning to recorded webinars to downloadable presentations. Technical SupportCTPP provides limited direct technical suppo

7、rt for solving data issues; the pro- gram also maintains a robust listserv where many issues are discussed, dissected, and resolved by the CTPP community. ResearchCTPP staff and board members routinely generate problem statements to solicit research on data issues; additionally, CTPP has funded its

8、own research efforts. Total research generated or funded by the current CTPP since 2006 is in excess of $1 million. Staff Penelope Weinberger, CTPP Program Manager Matt Hardy, Program Director, Policy and Planning Jim Tymon, Chief Operating Officer/Director of Policy and Management Project Team Stev

9、en E. Polzin, Co-Author, Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida Alan E. Pisarski, Co-Author, Consultant, Falls Church, Virginia Bruce Spear, Data Expert, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Liang Long, Data Expert, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Nancy McGuckin, Data Expert, Trave

10、l Behavior Analyst Contact Penelope Weinberger, e-mail: pweinbergeraashto.org, phone: 202-624-3556; or CTPPinfoaashto.org 2015 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. Pub Code: CA06-4 ISBN: 978-1-56

11、051-576-0 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends Brief 6. Job Dynamics This brief is the sixth in a series descri

12、bing commuting in America. This body of work, sponsored by American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and carried out in conjunction with a National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) project that provided supporting data, builds on three prior Commuting in

13、 America documents that were issued over the past three decades. Unlike the prior reports that were single volumes, this effort consists of a series of briefs, each of which addresses a critical aspect of commuting in America. These briefs, taken together, comprise a comprehensive summary of America

14、n commuting. The briefs are disseminated through the AASHTO website (traveltrends.transportation.org). Accompany- ing data tables and an Executive Summary complete the body of information known as Commuting in America 2013 (CIA 2013). Brief 6 describes the changes taking place in employment practice

15、s and patterns in the U.S. from the perspective of how this might influence commuting. This brief builds on information about the workforce and employment presented in Briefs 4 and 5 and is complemented with additional data in Brief 15 Commuting Flow Patterns. The Changing Nature of Work In 2013, fo

16、ur years after the official end of the recession, there are still very real differences in the nature and character of work in todays society relative to historical norms. These persisting changes raise the continuing question of what in the current character of work in society is a product of the c

17、yclical nature of the economy and what is evidence of real structural change in jobs and, perhaps more significantly, change in the whole relationship of jobs to society. A host of factors contribute to changes in the nature of employmentde- mographics, the changing nature of the economy such as the

18、 distribution of employment opportunities across employment categories, technology, culture, and economic and polit- ical policies that govern such things as social program benefits and eligibility. Among the attributes of change with immense bearing on the future of commuting are: Lower levels of w

19、orkers as a share of the population Continued work activity after “traditional” retirement age Changes in hours of work and work schedules Changes in traditional malefemale roles with women now constituting nearly half of the workforce Changes in disability status of traditionally labor-force-orient

20、ed populations Changes in working at home Changes in multi-job holding Changes in full-time/part-time job holding 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.4 Commuting in America 2013: The Nationa

21、l Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends These all have potential, at a minimum, for generating changes in the volumes, times, and frequencies of work travel. Moreover, they could affect modes of travel, trip lengths, trip chaining, and the home-to-work pattern of travel as well. For example, in th

22、e latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports, comparing May 2013 to May 2012, the civilian non-institutional population grew 2.4 million, but the civilian labor force increased by only 660,000. As a result, despite an increase of 1.6 million in employment, the overall participation ratethose wh

23、o are working or looking for workas a percentage of the working-age pop- ulation declined from 63.8 to 63.4 percent, contrasted to the range of 66+ percent in 1993 and 2003. Part of this can be attributed to the number of persons reaching retirement age, but there are other factors at work as well,

24、such as dis- couraged workers and increasing numbers of labor-force- age persons on disability. Figure 6-1 presents that trend from 2003 to 2013. Figure 6-1. Trend in Labor Force Participation Source: BLS data series A host of factors all contribute to changes in the nature of employment demographic

25、s, the changing nature of the economy such as the distribution of employment opportunities across employment categories, technology, culture, and economic and political policies that govern such things as social program benefits and eligibility. 66.4 66.1 65.8 66.0 66.4 66.2 65.7 64.8 64.2 63.7 63.6

26、 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Percent of Population in Labor Force January (Each Year) 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.5 Brief 6.

27、Job Dynamics Work Force Participation and Schedules With a working population in the range of 144 million, one tends to think of a rush of workers to their place of employment in the morning and a rush to home in the evening. But many parts of the work force do not fully participate in that diurnal

28、work flow. Figure 6-2 provides fundamental information on the structure of the work forces daily comings and goings. First, 72 percentabout 102 million workerswork on what can be labeled a “regular” daytime work schedule. The othersapproximately 42 millionhave work sched- ules that typically would t

29、ake them out of the usual traffic stream with regular evening or night-shift schedules or with irregular schedules of rotating or split-shift nature. Figure 6-2. Workers Work SchedulesAll Workers Source: Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), 2010 Moreover, only about 94 million of the 1

30、02 million workers with regular daytime schedules work at an away-from-home work site each day. The balance either work at home (5.5 million) or are defined as mixed workers (2.7 million), those who work a sched- ule of at least one full day at home but also work at a regular away-from-home work sit

31、e. 1The Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) of the U.S. Census Bureau cites that more than 116 million of the 142 million in their 2010 survey consider their schedule 1The subject of working at home often is presented with significantly varying statistics. This is typically a result of

32、 very different definitions and concepts being represented. One difference is the age criterion for defining a worker (age 16+ for ACS vs. age 15+ for SIPP). Another difference is the frequency criterion related to work-at-home. The SIPP survey has a rigorous definition that can be validated; in som

33、e statistical treatments, anyone bringing work home in the evening after a regular work day is considered working at home. A rigorous taxonomy of working at home is needed. Regular Daytime Schedule 72% Regular Evening Shift 5% Regular Night Shift 3% Rotating Shift 3% Split Shift 1% Irregular Schedul

34、e 14% Other 2% 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.6 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends “involuntary” because the schedule was a condition of the

35、 job or they could not find any other job. This means that 25 million workers worked schedules they cite as “voluntary” that is, selecting their schedule because it suited their preferences or needs for family care, school schedules, or better pay. These variations on the standard work theme are fur

36、ther compounded by workers hourly schedules. The U.S. workforce worked the hourly schedule distribution shown in Figure 6-3, with 52 percent working a “regular” eight-hour day; an additional 23 percent work more than eight hours, and the remaining quarter work fewer. Those who work at work sitesthat

37、 is, an away-from-home locationhave a somewhat greater eight-hour share (54 percent). Those who work only at home have a tendency for more erratic hours, with only 32 percent indicating they worked a “regular” eight-hour day. Those with mixed work arrangements, at home and at an away-from-home site,

38、 tend to have the heaviest schedules, with more than 40 percent indicating schedules of more than eight hours per day. Figure 6-3. Hours Worked per Day and Share of WorkforceAll Employed Workers Source: SIPP , 2010 These work hours have bearing on mode choice, in that workers who work “regular” hour

39、s are most oriented to personal vehicle use. Figure 6-4 shows that the highest personal vehicle share, 90 percent, is generated by those who work 4148 hours per week, but per- haps more importantly, those working a 3340 hour week53 percent of workershave a personal vehicle share of 88 percent, just

40、below the highest share. Those with greater or fewer hours of work per week tend to have greater shares in walking and working at home. 03 hrs 5% 4 hrs 4% 5 hrs 5% 6 hrs 5% 7 hrs 6% 8 hrs 52% 9 hrs 6% 10 hrs 9% 11 hrs or More 8% 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Of

41、ficials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.7 Brief 6. Job Dynamics Figure 6-4. Personal Vehicle Share by Hours Worked Source: ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2011 Table 6-1 introduces the role of part-time work for economic reasons rather than by worker choice

42、. The trend data indicate that the total workers at work rose only slightly in the 20052012 period, from 134.1 to 135.2 million, an increase of 1.1 million. However, those who worked 35 hours or more, generally considered “regular work hours, ” declined by 0.9 million in the period, whereas those wo

43、rking 134 hours, generally considered part- time, rose by 2.1 million, accounting for the overall increase. More importantly, those who indicated in the survey that they worked less than full-time hours for “economic reasons” 2almost doubled, to 8 million in 2012, up from 4.3 million in 2005. Of sig

44、nificance, this is an area where sharp distinctions between men and women in the work force remain. While women typically work part time more than men20.6 million part time versus 13.6 million in 2012, it is notable that women have greater shares in the older working age groups in part time. Overall

45、, women are 46.9 percent of the workforce, but constitute just below 60 percent of part time workers and are 63.2 percent of part time workers in the prime work- ing years of 25 to 54. In the recession women almost doubled in the percentage working part time for economic reasons since 2005, as men a

46、lso saw sharp increases. Of the eight million working part time for economic reasons women and men were roughly equal in share. Actual average hours worked by the part-time group, in the range of 2122 hours per weekwhether working part-time for economic or non-economic reasonschanged insig- nificant

47、ly during the period. There is emerging speculation that the distribution of full-time and part-time employment may change meaningfully as a result of the competitive econ- omy and employers positioning themselves to minimize fringe benefit costs. To the extent that speculation is borne out in workf

48、orce schedule changes sustained over time, it may 2Economic reasons include slack work or business conditions, could find only part-time work, seasonal work, and job started or ended in the week. 73% 80% 84% 88% 90% 86% 83% 82% 80% 73% 86% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8 924 2532 3340

49、4148 4956 5764 6572 7381 81 Total Perc ent Personal Vehicle Commuters Hours Worked per Week 2014 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.8 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends impact commuting temporal patterns. Similarly, the prospect that individuals may be coordinating multiple part-time jobs could influence both the total amount of commuting travel (