数量方法：应用及答案解析.doc

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1、数量方法：应用及答案解析(总分：80.00，做题时间：90 分钟)一、B单项选择题/B(总题数：80，分数：80.00)1.Which type of analysis requires the most subjective judgment on the part of the analyst to be successful?（分数：1.00）A.A. Technical analysis. B.B. Fundamental analysis. C.C. Financial statement analysis.2.The fact that it is not heavily depe

2、ndent on the analysis of accounting information is an advantage of:（分数：1.00）A.A. fundamental analysis. B.B. efficient market analysis. C.C. technical analysis.3.Which of the following random variables would be most likely to follow a discrete uniform distribution? A. The outcome of the roll of two s

3、tandard, six - sided dice where X is the sum of the numbers facing up. B. The number of heads on the flip of two coins. C. The outcome of a roll of a standard, six - sided die where X equals the number facing up on the die.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.4.Given a normally distributed population with a mean income o

4、f $40000 and standard deviation of $ 7500, what percentage of the population makes between $ 30000 and $ 35000?（分数：1.00）A.A. 15.96. B.B. 13.34. C.C. 41.67.5.A multivariate distribution : A. gives multiple probabilities for the same outcome. B. applies only to normal distributions. C. specifies the p

5、robabilities associated with groups of random variables.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.6.The use of the F - distributed test statistic, （分数：1.00）A.B.C.7.A Type error: A. rejects a true null hypothesis. B. rejects a false null hypothesis. C. fails to reject a false null hypothesis.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.8.If the threshold r

6、eturn is higher than the risk -free rate, what will be the relationship between Roys safety -first ratio (SF) and Sharpes ratio?（分数：1.00）A.A. The SF ratio will be lower. B.B. The SF ratio will be higher. C.C. They will be the same.9.An analyst conducts a two - tailed test to determine whether differ

7、ences between the means of two populations exist: H0: 1-2=0 versus H 2: 1-20. Assume that the populations are independent, normally distributed, and have unequal and unknown variances. The critical value with 50 degrees of freedom is 2.126. The computed test statistic is t=1.753. Using a significanc

8、e level of x=0.05, which of the following statements is TRUE? A. Use a t- test to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. B. Use a t -test to accept the null hypothesis and reject the alternative hypothesis. C. Use a z- test to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alte

9、rnative hypothesis.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.10.Which one of the following statements about the t - distribution is TRUE? A. The t- distribution is the appropriate distribution to use when constructing confidence intervals based on large samples. B. Compared to the normal distribution, the t -distribution is m

10、ore peaked with more area under the tails. C. The t - distribution approaches the standard normal distribution as the number of degrees of freedom becomes large.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.11.The sample of per square foot sales for 100 U. S. retailers in December 2004 is an example of:（分数：1.00）A.A. cross -sectio

11、nal data. B.B. unbiased data. C.C. time -series data.12.When is the t- distribution the appropriate distribution to use? The t -distribution is the appropriate distribution to use when constructing confidence intervals based on: A. small samples from populations with known variance that are at least

12、 approximately normal. B. large samples from populations with known variance that are nonnormal. C. small samples from populations with unknown variance that are at least approximately normal.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.13.The sample mean is a consistent estimator of the population mean because the: A. expected

13、value of the sample mean is equal to the population mean. B. sampling distribution of the sample mean has the smallest variance of any other unbiased estimators of the population mean. C. sample mean provides a more accurate estimate of the population mean as the sample size increases.（分数：1.00）A.B.C

14、.14.Which of the following would result in a wider confidence interval?（分数：1.00）A.A. higher degree of confidence. B.B. higher alpha level. C.C. higher point estimate.15.Analysts who look for patterns and trends in security prices for buy and sell signals are called:（分数：1.00）A.A. tecbnical analysts.

15、B.B. fundamental analysts. C.C. signaling analysts.16.In a test of the mean of a population, if the population variance is: A. known, a z- distributed test statistic is appropriate. B. known, a t- distributed test statistic is appropriate. C. unknown, a z -distributed test statistic is appropriate.（

16、分数：1.00）A.B.C.17.Which of the following is a discrete random variable? A. The amount of time between two successive stock trades. B. The realized return on a corporate bond. C. The number of advancing stocks in the DJIA in a day.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.18.The 95 % confidence interval for the population mean

17、based on a sample of 40 interest rates with a sample mean of 4% and a sample standard deviation of 15% is closest to:（分数：1.00）A.A. -0.851% to 8.851%. B.B. 1.261% to 6.739%. C.C. -0.794% to 8.794%.19.The standard normal distribution is most completely described as a: A. symmetrical distribution with

18、a mean equal to its median. B. normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one. C. distribution that exhibits zero skewness and no excess kurtosis.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.20.A normal distribution can be completely described by its:（分数：1.00）A.A. mean and variance. B.B. skewness and kur

19、tosis. C.C. mean and mode.21.Which of the following statements about hypothesis testing is FALSE? A. The null hypothesis is a statement about the value of a population parameter. B. A Type error is failing to reject a false null hypothesis. C. If the alternative hypothesis is Ha: 0, a two - tailed t

20、est is appropriate.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.22.Which of the following is NOT a probability distribution? A. Flip a coin: P(H)=P(T)=0.5. B. Roll an irregular die: P(1)=P(2)=P(3)=P(4)=0.2 and P(5)=P(6)=0.1. C. Zeta Corp. : P(dividend increases)=0.60, P(dividend decreases)=0.30.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.23.The central limi

21、t theorem concerns the sampling distribution of the:（分数：1.00）A.A. population mean. B.B. sample mean. C.C. population standard deviation.24.From a population of 5000 observations, a sample of n=100 is selected. Calculate the standard error of the sample mean if the population standard deviation is 50

22、.（分数：1.00）A.A. 4.48. B.B. 5.00. C.C. 4.00.25.If a smooth curve is to represent a probability density function, what two requirements must be satisfied? The : A. area under the curve must be zero and the curve must not fall below the horizontal axis. B. area under the curve must be one and the curve

23、must not rise above the horizontal axis. C. total area under the curve must be one and the curve must not fall below the horizontal axis.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.26.Which of the following characterizes the typical construction of a confidence interval correctly? A. Point estimate (Standard error/Reliability f

24、actor). B. Point estimate ( Reliability factor Standard error). C. ( Reliability factor Standard error) Point estimate.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.27.A local high school basketball team had 18 home games this season and averaged 58 points per game. If we assume that the number of points made in home games is nor

25、mally distributed, which of the following is most likely the range of points for a confidence interval of 90 percent?（分数：1.00）A.A. 26 to 80. B.B. 24 to 78. C.C. 34 to 82.28.A stock priced at $10 has a 60 percent probability of moving up and a 40 percent probability of moving down. If it moves up, it

26、 increases by a factor of 1.06. If it moves down, it decreases by a factor of 1/1.06. What is the expected stock price after two successive periods?（分数：1.00）A.A. $10.03. B.B. $11.24. C.C. $10.27.29.One advantage of technical analysis is that it tells the analyst: A. Why investors are buying. B. When

27、 to buy and why investors are buying. C. When to buy; not why investors are buying.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.30.The lower limit of a normal distribution is:（分数：1.00）A.A. negative infinity. B.B. zero. C.C. one.31.Which of the following measures is NOT used as a market environment technical trading signal? A. PE

28、G ratio (P/E ratio divided by expected growth rate). B. Market breadth (advance/decline ratio). C. Short interest ratio.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.32.Which of the following statements about hypothesis testing is most accurate? A. The probability of a Type I error is equal to the significance level of the test.

29、B. If you can disprove the null hypothesis, then you have proven the alternative hypothesis. C. To test the claim that X is greater than zero, the null hypothesis would be Ho : X0.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.33.John Cupp, CFA, has several hundred clients. The values of the portfolios Cupp manages are approximate

30、ly normally distributed with a mean of $ 800000 and a standard deviation of $ 250000. The probability of a randomly selected portfolio being in excess of $1000000 is :（分数：1.00）A.A. 0.3773. B.B. 0.6227. C.C. 0.2119.34.A sample of size n=25 is selected from a normal population. This sample has a mean

31、of 15 and a sample variance of 4. What is the standard error of the sample mean?（分数：1.00）A.A. 2.0. B.B. 0.4. C.C. 0.8.35.Which of the following statements about sampling errors is FALSE? A. Sampling errors are errors due to the wrong sample being selected from the population. B. Sampling error is th

32、e difference between a sample statistic and its corresponding population parameter. C. Sampling errors will vary from one sample to the next.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.36.The power of the test is: A. the probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis. B. equal to the level of significance. C. the probability o

33、f rejecting a false null hypothesis.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.37.Which of the following is the best method to avoid data mining bias when testing a profitable trading strategy? A. Increase the sample size to at least 30 observations per year. B. Test the strategy on a different data set than the one used to de

34、velop the rules. C. Use a sample free of survivorship bias.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.38.The Central Limit Theorem states that, for any distribution, as n gets larger, the sampling distribution:（分数：1.00）A.A. becomes larger. B.B. becomes smaller. C.C. approaches a normal distribution.39.Point and figure charting

35、 is most concerned with which of the following?（分数：1.00）A.A. Time. B.B. Price “jumps“. C.C. Relative Strength.40.If X has a normal distribution with =100 and =5, then there is approximately a 90% probability that:（分数：1.00）A.A. P(90.2X109.8). B.B. P(87.1X112.9). C.C. P(91.8X108.3).41.An equity analys

36、t needs to select a representative sample of manufacturing stocks. Starting with the population of all publicly traded manufacturing stocks, she classifies each stock into one of the 20 industry groups that form the Index of“ Industrial Production for the manufacturing industry. She then selects a n

37、umber of stocks from each industry based on its weight in the index. The sampling method the analyst is using is best characterized as:（分数：1.00）A.A. data mining. B.B. nonrandom sampling. C.C. stratified random sampling.42.A probability function: A. only applies to continuous distributions. B. specif

38、ies the probability that the random variable takes on a specific value. C. is often referred to as the “cdf. “（分数：1.00）A.B.C.43.The owner of a bowling alley determined that the average weight for a bowling ball is 12 pounds with a standard deviation of 1.5 pounds. A ball denoted “heavy“ should be on

39、e of the top 2 percent based on weight. Assuming the weights of bowling balls are normally distributed, at what weight (in pounds) should the “heavy“ designation be used?（分数：1.00）A.A. 15.08 pounds. B.B. 14.00 pounds. C.C. 14.22 pounds.44.If the null hypothesis is innocence, then the statement “It is

40、 better that the guilty go free, than the innocent are punished“ is an example of preferring a: A. type I error over a type error. B. two tailed test over a one tailed test. C. type error over a type I error.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.45.The number of days a particular stock increases in a given five - day peri

41、od is uniformly distributed between zero and five inclusive. In a given five -day trading week, what is the probability that the stock will increase exactly three days?（分数：1.00）A.A. 0.333. B.B. 0.200. C.C. 0.167.46.An analyst wants to get, crate a simple random sample of 500 stocks from all 10000 st

42、ocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange, and NASDAQ. Which of the following methods is least likely to generate a random sample? A. Listing all the stocks traded on all three exchanges in alphabetical order and selecting every. 20th stock. B. Writing the name of each

43、stock on a piece of paper, putting them in a hat, and drawing out 500 names, one at a time. C. Using the 500 stocks in the SP 500.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.47.Which of the following statements about hypothesis testing is TRUE? A Type error is the probability of: A. rejecting a true null hypothesis. B. rejectin

44、g a true alternative hypothesis. C. failing to reject a false null hypothesis.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.48.Construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the starting salaries of 100 recently hired employees with average starting salaries of $ 50000 and a standard deviation of $ 3000 assuming the population ha

45、s a normal distribution.（分数：1.00）A.A. 500001.65 (3000); B.B. 500001.65 (300). C.C. 300001.65 (5000).49.A test of the population variance is equal to a hypothesized value requires the use of a test statistic that is:（分数：1.00）A.A. t - distributed. B.B. z - distributed. C.C. Chi- squared distributed.50

46、.The mean and standard deviation of four portfolios are listed below in percentage terms. Using Roys safety- first criteria and a threshold of 4 percent, select the mean and standard deviation that corresponds to the optimal portfolio. Mean Standard Deviation A. 14 20 B. 8 10 C. 19 28（分数：1.00）A.A. B

47、.B. C.C. 51.Assume thirty percent of the CFA candidates have a degree in economics. A random sample of three CFA candidates is selected. What is the probability that none of them has a degree in economics?（分数：1.00）A.A. 0.343. B.B. 0.900. C.C. 0.027.52.The mean return of a portfolio is 20% and its st

48、andard deviation is 4%. The returns are normally distributed. Which of the following statements about this distribution are least accurate? The probability of receiving a return:（分数：1.00）A.A. of less than 12% is 0.025. B.B. between 12% and 28% is 0.95. C.C. in excess of 16% is 0.16.53.Assume a discr

49、ete distribution for the number of possible sunny days in Provo, Utah during the week of April 20 through April 26. For this discrete distribution, p(x)=0 when x cannot occur, or p(x)0 if it can. Based on this information, what is the probability of it being surely on 5 days and on 10 days during the week? 5 Days of Sunshine 10 Days of Sunshine A. A positive value Infinite B. Zero Infinite C. A positive value Zero（分数：1.00）A.A. B.B. C.C. 54.A scientist working for a pharmaceutical company tries many models using the same data