数量方法：应用(一)及答案解析.doc

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1、数量方法：应用(一)及答案解析(总分：40.00，做题时间：90 分钟)一、B单项选择题/B(总题数：40，分数：40.00)1.Which of the following statements about hypothesis testing is TRUE? A Type error is the probability of: A. rejecting a true null hypothesis. B. rejecting a true alternative hypothesis. C. failing to reject a false null hypothesis.（分数：1

2、.00）A.B.C.D.2.A multivariate distribution : A. gives multiple probabilities for the same outcome. B. applies only to normal distributions. C. specifies the probabilities associated with groups of random variables.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.3.John Cupp, CFA, has several hundred clients. The values of the portf

3、olios Cupp manages are approximately normally distributed with a mean of $ 800000 and a standard deviation of $ 250000. The probability of a randomly selected portfolio being in excess of $1000000 is : A. 0.3773. B. 0.6227. C. 0.2119.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.4.Assume a discrete distribution for the number o

4、f possible sunny days in Provo, Utah during the week of April 20 through April 26. For this discrete distribution, p(x)=0 when x cannot occur, or p(x)0 if it can. Based on this information, what is the probability of it being surely on 5 days and on 10 days during the week?5 Days of Sunshine 10 Days

5、 of SunshineA. A positive value InfiniteB. Zero InfiniteC. A positive value Zero A. B. C. （分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.5.Which of the following characterizes the typical construction of a confidence interval correctly? A. Point estimate (Standard error/Reliability factor). B. Point estimate ( Reliability factor

6、 Standard error). C. ( Reliability factor Standard error) Point estimate.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.6.A scientist working for a pharmaceutical company tries many models using the same data before reporting the one that shows that the given drug has no serious side effects. The scientist is guilty of: A. look

7、-ahead bias. B. time -period bias. C. data mining.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.7.The power of the test is: A. the probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis. B. equal to the level of significance. C. the probability of rejecting a false null hypothesis.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.8.The 95 % confidence interval for th

8、e population mean based on a sample of 40 interest rates with a sample mean of 4% and a sample standard deviation of 15% is closest to: A. -0.851% to 8.851%. B. 1.261% to 6.739%. C. -0.794% to 8.794%.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.9.The mean return of a portfolio is 20% and its standard deviation is 4%. The retur

9、ns are normally distributed. Which of the following statements about this distribution are least accurate? The probability of receiving a return: A. of less than 12% is 0.025. B. between 12% and 28% is 0.95. C. in excess of 16% is 0.16.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.10.A researcher is testing whether the average

10、age of employees in a large firm is statistically different from 35 years ( either above or below). A sample is drawn of 250 employees and the researcher determines that the appropriate critical value for the test statistic is 1.96. The value of the computed test statistic is 4.35. Given this inform

11、ation, which of the following statements is FALSE? The test: A. is two- tailed. B. indicates that the researcher will reject the null hypothesis. C. has a significance level of 95%.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.11.Analysts who look for patterns and trends in security prices for buy and sell signals are called: A

12、. tecbnical analysts. B. fundamental analysts. C. signaling analysts.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.12.Which of the following statements about hypothesis testing is FALSE? A. The null hypothesis is a statement about the value of a population parameter. B. A Type error is failing to reject a false null hypothesis.

13、 C. If the alternative hypothesis is Ha: 0, a two - tailed test is appropriate.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.13.An equity analyst needs to select a representative sample of manufacturing stocks. Starting with the population of all publicly traded manufacturing stocks, she classifies each stock into one of the 20

14、 industry groups that form the Index of“ Industrial Production for the manufacturing industry. She then selects a number of stocks from each industry based on its weight in the index. The sampling method the analyst is using is best characterized as: A. data mining. B. nonrandom sampling. C. stratif

15、ied random sampling.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.14.A test of the population variance is equal to a hypothesized value requires the use of a test statistic that is: A. t - distributed. B. z - distributed. C. Chi- squared distributed.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.15.Which type of analysis requires the most subjective judgmen

16、t on the part of the analyst to be successful? A. Technical analysis. B. Fundamental analysis. C. Financial statement analysis.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.16.If a smooth curve is to represent a probability density function, what two requirements must be satisfied? The : A. area under the curve must be zero and

17、 the curve must not fall below the horizontal axis. B. area under the curve must be one and the curve must not rise above the horizontal axis. C. total area under the curve must be one and the curve must not fall below the horizontal axis.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.17.Which of the following is NOT an assumpti

18、on of the binomial distribution? A. The trials are independent. B. Random variable X is discrete. C. The expected value is a whole number.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.18.In addition to the usual parameters that describe a normal distribution, to completely describe 10 random variables, a multivariate normal dis

19、tribution requires knowing the: A. 45 correlations. B. overall correlation. C. 10 correlations.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.19.Construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the starting salaries of 100 recently hired employees with average starting salaries of $ 50000 and a standard deviation of $ 3000 assumin

20、g the population has a normal distribution. A. 500001.65 (3000); B. 500001.65 (300). C. 300001.65 (5000).（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.20.Which one of the following best characterizes the alternative hypothesis? The alternative hypothesis is usually the: A. hypothesis that is proved through statistical testing.

21、B. hoped -for outcome. C. hypothesis to be proved through statistical testing.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.21.Which of the following statements about sampling errors is FALSE? A. Sampling errors are errors due to the wrong sample being selected from the population. B. Sampling error is the difference between a

22、sample statistic and its corresponding population parameter. C. Sampling errors will vary from one sample to the next.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.22.According to a technician, stock prices tend to move: A. in trends that persist. B. randomly. C. only when accompanied by volume.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.23.A random vari

23、able that has a countable number of possible values is called a: A. discrete random variable. B. continuous random variable. C. probability distribution.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.24.The Central Limit Theorem states that, for any distribution, as n gets larger, the sampling distribution: A. becomes larger. B.

24、 becomes smaller. C. approaches a normal distribution.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.25.The lower limit of a normal distribution is: A. negative infinity. B. zero. C. one.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.26.The sample mean is a consistent estimator of the population mean because the: A. expected value of the sample mean is equal

25、 to the population mean. B. sampling distribution of the sample mean has the smallest variance of any other unbiased estimators of the population mean. C. sample mean provides a more accurate estimate of the population mean as the sample size increases.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.27.Which of the following stat

26、ements about hypothesis testing is most accurate? A. The probability of a Type I error is equal to the significance level of the test. B. If you can disprove the null hypothesis, then you have proven the alternative hypothesis. C. To test the claim that X is greater than zero, the null hypothesis wo

27、uld be Ho : X0.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.28.From a population of 5000 observations, a sample of n=100 is selected. Calculate the standard error of the sample mean if the population standard deviation is 50. A. 4.48. B. 5.00. C. 4.00.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.29.A stock priced at $10 has a 60 percent probability of mo

28、ving up and a 40 percent probability of moving down. If it moves up, it increases by a factor of 1.06. If it moves down, it decreases by a factor of 1/1.06. What is the expected stock price after two successive periods? A. $10.03. B. $11.24. C. $10.27.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.30.Given a normally distributed

29、 population with a mean income of $40000 and standard deviation of $ 7500, what percentage of the population makes between $ 30000 and $ 35000? A. 15.96. B. 13.34. C. 41.67.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.31.Which of the following is the best method to avoid data mining bias when testing a profitable trading strat

30、egy? A. Increase the sample size to at least 30 observations per year. B. Test the strategy on a different data set than the one used to develop the rules. C. Use a sample free of survivorship bias.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.32.A basic assumption of technical analysis in contrast to fundamental analysis is th

31、at: A. security prices move in patterns, which repeat over long periods. B. aggregate supply of and demand for goods and services are key determinants of stock value. C. a stocks market price will approach its intrinsic value over time.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.33.One of the assumptions of technical analysis

32、 is: A. all analysts have all current information. B. security prices move in random fashion. C. supply and demand are driven by rational and irrational behavior.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.34.Which of the following qualifies as a cumulative distribution function? A. F(1)=0.5, Y(2)=0.25, F(3)=0.25. B. F(1)=0,

33、F(2)=0.5, F(3)=0.5, F(4)=0. C. g(1)=0, F(2)=0.25, F(3)=0.50, F(4) =1.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.35.A local high school basketball team had 18 home games this season and averaged 58 points per game. If we assume that the number of points made in home games is normally distributed, which of the following is mos

34、t likely the range of points for a confidence interval of 90 percent? A. 26 to 80. B. 24 to 78. C. 34 to 82.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.36.Which of the following would result in a wider confidence interval? A. higher degree of confidence. B. higher alpha level. C. higher point estimate.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.37.Of t

35、he following explanations, which is least likely to be a valid explanation for divergence between statistical significance and economic significance? A. Transactions costs. B. Data errors. C. Taxes.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.38.Which of the following measures is NOT used as a market environment technical trad

36、ing signal? A. PEG ratio (P/E ratio divided by expected growth rate). B. Market breadth (advance/decline ratio). C. Short interest ratio.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.39.An analyst wants to get, crate a simple random sample of 500 stocks from all 10000 stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American S

37、tock Exchange, and NASDAQ. Which of the following methods is least likely to generate a random sample? A. Listing all the stocks traded on all three exchanges in alphabetical order and selecting every. 20th stock. B. Writing the name of each stock on a piece of paper, putting them in a hat, and draw

38、ing out 500 names, one at a time. C. Using the 500 stocks in the SP 500.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.40.Standardizing a normally distributed random Variable requires the: A. mean, variance and skewness. B. mean and the standard deviation. C. natural logarithm of X.（分数：1.00）A.B.C.D.数量方法：应用(一)答案解析(总分：40.00，做题时间：9

39、0 分钟)一、B单项选择题/B(总题数：40，分数：40.00)1.Which of the following statements about hypothesis testing is TRUE? A Type error is the probability of: A. rejecting a true null hypothesis. B. rejecting a true alternative hypothesis. C. failing to reject a false null hypothesis.（分数：1.00）A.B.C. D.解析：The Type error

40、is the error of failing to reject a null hypothesis that is not true.2.A multivariate distribution : A. gives multiple probabilities for the same outcome. B. applies only to normal distributions. C. specifies the probabilities associated with groups of random variables.（分数：1.00）A.B.C. D.解析：This is t

41、he definition of a multivariate distribution.3.John Cupp, CFA, has several hundred clients. The values of the portfolios Cupp manages are approximately normally distributed with a mean of $ 800000 and a standard deviation of $ 250000. The probability of a randomly selected portfolio being in excess

42、of $1000000 is : A. 0.3773. B. 0.6227. C. 0.2119.（分数：1.00）A.B.C. D.解析：Although the number of clients is discrete, since there are several hundred of them, we can treat them as continuous. The selected random value is standardized (its z - value is calculated) by subtracting the mean from the selecte

43、d value and dividing by the standard deviation. This results in a z - value of ( 1000000-800000)/250000=0.8. Looking up 0.8 in the z - value table yields 0.7881 as the probability that a random variable is to the left of the standardized value (i. e. less than $1000000). Accordingly, the probability

44、 of a random variable being to the right of the standardized value (i. e. greater than $1000000) is 1-0.7881=0.2119.4.Assume a discrete distribution for the number of possible sunny days in Provo, Utah during the week of April 20 through April 26. For this discrete distribution, p(x)=0 when x cannot

45、 occur, or p(x)0 if it can. Based on this information, what is the probability of it being surely on 5 days and on 10 days during the week?5 Days of Sunshine 10 Days of SunshineA. A positive value InfiniteB. Zero InfiniteC. A positive value Zero A. B. C. （分数：1.00）A.B.C. D.解析：The probability of it be

46、ing sunny on 5 days during the week has some positive value, but the probability of having sunshine 10 days within a week of 7 days is zero because this cannot occur.5.Which of the following characterizes the typical construction of a confidence interval correctly? A. Point estimate (Standard error/

47、Reliability factor). B. Point estimate ( Reliability factor Standard error). C. ( Reliability factor Standard error) Point estimate.（分数：1.00）A.B. C.D.解析：We can construct a confidence interval by adding and subtracting some amount from the point estimate. In general, confidence intervals have the fol

48、lowing form. Point estimate + Reliability factor x Standard error Point estimate = the value of a sample statistic of the population parameter Reliability factor = a number that depends on the sampling distribution of the point estimate and the probability the point estimate falls in the confidence interval (1-) Standard error = the standard error of the point estimate6.A scientist working for a pharmaceutical company tries many models using the same data before reporting the one that shows that the given drug has no serious side effects. The sci