ICAO 8991-2006 Manual on Air Traffic Forecasting Third Edition《空中交通预测手册第3版》.pdf

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1、Doc 8991 AT172213 Manual on Air Traffic Forecasting Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authority Third Edition - 2006 International Civil Aviation Organization Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduct

2、ion or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-Published in separate English, French, Russian and Spanish editions by the Intemational Civil Aviation Organization. All correspondence, except orders and subscriptions, should be addressed to the Secretary General. Orders should be sent to on

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11、e la OACI, Oficina Norteamrica, Centroamrica y Caribe, Av. Presidente Masaryk No. 29, 3e Piso, Nigeria. Landover Company, P.O. Box 3165, Ikeja, Lagos Peru. Director Regional de la OACI, Oficina Sudamrica, Apartado 4127, Lima 100 Russian Federation. Aviaizdat, 48, Ivan Franko Street, Moscow 121351 /

12、Telephone: +7 (095) 417-0405; Facsimile: +7 (095) 417-0254 Senegal. Directeur rgional de IOACI, Bureau Afrique occidentale et centrale, Bote postale 2356, Dakar Slovakia. Air Traffic Services of the Slovak Republic, Letov prevdzkov sluzby Slovenskej Republiky, State Enterprise, South Africa. Avex Ai

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17、ue of ICAO Publications and Audio-visual Training Aids Issued annually, the Catalogue lists all publications and audio-visual training aids currently available. Supplements to the Catalogue announce new publications and audio-visual training aids, amendments, supplements, reprints, etc. Available fr

18、ee from the Document Sales Unit, ICAO. Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-Doc 8994 AT172213 Manual on Air Traffic Forecast na Approved by the Secretary General a

19、nd published under his authority Third Edition - 2006 I n te r n a t i on a I C iv i I Av at i on O rg a n iza t i o n Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-AMENDME

20、NTS No. The issue of amendments is announced regularly in the ICAO Journal and in the supplements to the Catalogue of ICAO Publications and Audio-visual Training Aids, which holders of this publication should consult. The space below is provided to keep a record of such amendments. Date Entered by R

21、ECORD OF AMENDMENTS AND CORRIGENDA AMENDMENTS Entered by (ii) Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-FOREWORD 1. Assembly Resolution A35-18 (Consolidated statement o

22、f continuing ICAO policies in the air transport field): The work of the Organization in the field of air traffic forecasting .is governed by Appendix C of Appendix C - Forecasting and Economic Planning Whereas Contracting States require global and regional forecasts of future civil aviation developm

23、ents for various purposes; Whereas the Council, in carrying out its continuing functions in the economic field, must foresee future developments likely to require action by the Organization and must initiate such action in good time; and Whereas the Organization requires specific forecasts and econo

24、mic support for airports and air navigation systems planning and environmental planning purposes; The Assembly: 1. Requests the Council to prepare and maintain, as necessary, long-term and medium-term forecasts of future trends and developments in civil aviation of both a general and a specific kind

25、, including, where possible, regional as well as global data, and to make these available to Contracting States; 2. Requests the Council to develop methodologies and procedures for the preparation of forecasts, the analysis of cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness, and the development of business cases

26、, to meet the needs of the regional air navigation planning groups and, as required, other systems or environmental planning bodies of the Organization; and 3. Requests the Council to make arrangements to collect and develop material on current forecasting methods both for the purposes described in

27、clauses 1 and 2 and for dissemination to Contracting States from time to time as guidance in their own forecasting and economic planning. 2. This manual represents a partial fulfilment of the requirement set out in the third resolving clause “to collect and develop material on current forecasting me

28、thods . . . for dissemination to Contracting States from time to time as guidance in their own forecasting and economic planning”. The first edition of this manual was published in 1972. The second edition, published in 1985, took into account additional material received by ICAO and experience gain

29、ed during the intervening period. This third edition takes into account new material developed by ICAO and additional experience gained since 1985. 3. This manual is addressed to civil aviation administration personnel, airline planners, planners of airports and air navigation systems and others act

30、ively engaged in practical forecasting work. It provides a survey of techniques currently used for air traffic forecasting, and practical guidance on the application of these techniques. The advantages and disadvantages of the techniques as well as the criteria for selection of a particular techniqu

31、e for the forecast concerned are discussed. These techniques can vary considerably in their usefulness and sophistication. 4. The manual is divided into three parts. Part I presents the techniques that are available for air traffic forecasting purposes. These are classified into three broad categori

32、es: quantitative, qualitative and Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-(W Manual on Air Traffic Forecasting decision analysis. Within quantitative forecasting meth

33、ods, time-series analysis using both trend projection and decomposition methods are presented. This is followed by a presentation of causal methods for traffic forecasting based on the formulation of cause and effect relationships between air traffic demand and the underlying causal factors. Econome

34、tric analysis methods, widely recognized for the development of air traffic forecasts, are described in detail, along with procedures to interpret and understand summary statistics and the pros and cons of estimation procedures. This is followed by a presentation of other causal methods. Part I also

35、 presents other methods of forecasting under “qualitative forecasting methods” and “decision analysis”. A discussion of various forecasting time horizons and forecasting accuracy is included. This is followed by a set of illustrative examples from various regions of the world including an illustrati

36、on of the development of a longer term (fifty-year) forecast. 5. Part II of this manual presents methods and procedures for forecasting for aviation planning, including forecasting for air navigation planning, airline planning and airport planning purposes. The methods developed by ICA0 and its regi

37、onal traffic forecasting groups (TFGs), including those required for the progressive implementation of the components of the communications, navigation, surveillance/air traffic management (CNS/ATM) systems, are included in this section. 6. Part III of this manual is devoted to case studies and meth

38、odologies developed by selected Contracting States and other organizations to develop forecasts for the requirements of civil aviation, including aviation ,forecasting methods used by the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL), Canada, India and Tunisia. This is followe

39、d by a presentation of methodologies used in forecasting for airports including methods applied by airports in India and Newark Airport in the United States. Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitt

40、ed without license from IHS-,-,-ABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION PART I . FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES . Quanti tat ive forecast ng met hods . Time-series analysis . Causal methods Other variations of causal methods . Qualitative forecasting methods . Delphi technique . Technological forecasting . De

41、cision analysis Market research and industry surveys . Probabilistic analysis Bayesian analysis . System dynamics . Forecasting time horizons . Trend projection (North Atlantic market) Econometric analysis . Forecas ti ng accu racy Illustrative examples . Longer-term forecasts (25 to 50-year horizon

42、) . PART II . FORECASTING FOR AVIATION PLANNING Air navigation systems planning . Estimates of aircraft movements Peak-period planning parameters Identification of airport planning parameters Airport passengers . Aircraft movements Airport planning . Traffic in peak periods Other parameters . Altern

43、ative development strategies Airline planning . Planning of routes and services . Impact of fare structures . Fleet planning . Estimation of an airlines market share PART 111 . CASE STUDIES AND METHODOLOGIES FOR FORECASTING . 1 1-1 I- 1 1-1 1-7 1-20 1-22 1-24 1-24 1-24 1-24 1-25 1-25 1-26 1-26 1-27

44、1-27 1-27 1-31 1-36 11-1 11-1 11-1 11-2 11-4 11-7 11-7 11-7 11-8 11-9 11-9 11-9 11-9 11-1 0 11-1 0 11-1 2 111-1 Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-(vi) Manual on

45、 Air Traffic Forecasting General air traffic forecasting EUROCONTROL forecasting methodology . Transport Canada forecasting model . Air traffic forecasting for India . Air traffic forecasting for Tunisia . Forecasting for airports in India Forecasting for airports . Forecasting for Newark Airport (U

46、nited States) . Page 111-1 111-1 111-4 111-1 1 111-1 3 111-22 111-22 111-28 Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-INTRODUCTION 1. The air transport industry has exp

47、erienced rapid growth with an average annual growth rate of almost 1 O per cent over the past 55 years. This rate is just over three times the average growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms, the broadest available measure of world economic activity. This increase in air traffic has

48、 been achieved through technological advances, productivity improvements and increased consumer spending along with the progressive de-regulation of the air transport markets. 2. Civil aviation, through a complex interaction with other economic sectors, benefits from and contributes to the economic development of nations. Because of the increasing role of air transport in the economic development of nations and regions, it is important to take due account of the economic and social benefits that an effici