A Peak Oil Update and a Quantitative Assessment of Future .ppt

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1、A Peak Oil Update and a Quantitative Assessment of Future Net Oil Exports by the Top Five Net Oil Exporters,Jeffrey J. Brown & Samuel Foucher, Ph.D.,Capital & Energy Required to Produce Liquid Transportation Fuels from Fossil Fuels,Capital & Energy Requirements Increase,Carbon Content & Contaminants

2、 Increasing,Gas,Liquid,Solid,Natural Gas,Bitumen,Coal,Jeffrey J. Brown, Geologist email: ,Natural Gas Liquids,Condensate,Light Sweet Crude,Heavy Sour Crude,Lower 48 Production 1960-1980,Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only,Lower 48 HL Plot,Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only,Total Lower 48

3、Production (1990 to current),Lower 48 and World Production,Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only,Jeffrey J. Brown, Geologist email: ,Source Material: GRAPHOILOGY by KHEBAB,Jeffrey J. Brown, Geologist email: ,Source Material: GRAPHOILOGY by KHEBAB,Texas and Saudi Production,Source: EIA, crude oil

4、+ condensate only, Railroad Commission of Texas,Texas and Saudi Production,Texas and North Sea Production,Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only,Export Land Model,ELM, UK and Indonesia, Year over Year Changes in Net Exports,Conventional Wisdom - the Economist Quote About Saudi Arabia, Saudi Aramco

5、s proved reserves alone could keep the world supplied for several decades. But it is only exploiting ten of its 80 or so fields, so will be able to pump at the present rate for about 70 years even if it never discovers another drop of oil . Economist Magazine, August 10, 2006,Saudi Arabia: Constant

6、Production at 11 mbpd, Versus Consumption Increasing at +5.7%/year,Saudi Arabia, Production, Consumption,4.4% 2%/year,URR=224 24 Gb,-2.7 2%/year,Saudi Arabia, Net Exports,2015,-4.73 4%/year,Russia, Production, Consumption,URR=204 7 Gb,0.3% 0.8%/year,2015,-5.1 2%/year,Russia, Exports,2015,-8.2 4%/yea

7、r,Norway, Production, Consumption,URR=29 1 Gb,0.7% 2.7%/year,2015,-11.0 2%/year,Norway, Exports,2015,-12.1 2.5%/year,Iran, Production, Consumption,URR=124 12 Gb,2.9% 1.8%/year,2015,-1.5 2%/year,Iran, Exports,2015,-4.9 7%/year,UAE, Production, Consumption,URR=49 9 Gb,5.0% 5.0%/year,2015,-2.9 4%/year,UAE, Exports,2015,-4.0 7%/year,Top Five, Production, Consumption,URR=680 55 Gb,1.8% 0.9%/year,2015,-3.8 2%/year,Top Five, Exports,2015,-6.2 4%/year,Top Five Net Exports, With US Total Imports,Electrified Transportation in San Angelo, Texas, Circa 1908,