Investing in Equities.ppt

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1、Investing in Equities,Topic 6 I. Common Stock Investments,A. Basic Characteristics,1. Equity Capital 2. Types a. Growth Stock b. Income Stock c. Speculative Stock d. Cyclical Stock e. Defensive Stock,B. Valuation of Common Stock,1. Dividend Valuation Model a. Example 2. Using the CAPM Process a. Ass

2、umptions 1. km = rate of return on the market 2. Rf = return on the risk free asset 3. km - Rf = Market Risk Premium b. Example,C. Other Common Stock Values,1. Par Value 2. Book Value 3. Liquidation Value 4. Market Value 5. Investment Value,D. Common Stock as an Inflation Hedge,Protection Against In

3、flation Over the last thirty years the S&P 500 has averaged approximately 11% annualcompound return. Inflation has averaged approximately5.4% during the same time period.,Common Stock as an Inflation Hedge:,S&P LT Bonds LT Govt Bonds T. Bills CPILast 10: 14.8% 11.3% 11.9% 5.6% 3.5% Last 20: 14.6% 10

4、.6% 10.4% 7.3% 5.2% Last 30: 10.7% 8.2% 7.9% 6.7% 5.4% Last 40: 10.8% 6.8% 6.4% 5.7% 4.5% Last 50: 11.9% 5.8% 5.3% 5.7% 4.4%Source: Ibbotson and Sinquefield, “Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation 1997 yearbook,” Chicago.,The Panic of 1987,Index arbitrage and portfolio insurance (programmed trading) we

5、re the major cause. From Tuesday 10/13/87 to 10/19/87, the DJIA fell 769 points or 31%. On 10/19/87 the DJIA fell508 points or 22.6%. On 10/28/29 the DJIA fell 11.7%. Mutual funds and pension funds use portfolio insurance. Portfolio insurance is a strategy that uses computer based models to determin

6、e an optimal stock/cash ratio at various market prices. Two insurance users called for sales equaling 50% in response to a 10% decline in the S&P 500 Index.,Investment Wisdom,Dont try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. This cant be done - except by liarsBernard BaruchFools and greed usually g

7、o hand in hand, which creates a field of opportunity for the rational man.Warren Buffett,Investment Wisdom,When it comes to risk, weve done better by avoiding dragons rather than by slaying them. Warren Buffett Traditional Wisdom can be long on tradition and short on wisdom. Warren Buffett,Investmen

8、t Wisdom,Investing is the greatest business in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate; the pitcher throws you GM at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. Theres no penalty except opportunity. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then, when the fielder

9、s are asleep, you step up and hit it. Warren Buffett,Investment Wisdom,On Leaving Management Alone:At Berkshire we dont tell .400 hitters how to swing. Warren Buffett,Warren Buffett on taking Your Time,An investor should act as though he/she had a lifetime decision card with just twenty punches on i

10、t. With every investment decision his card is punched, and he/she has one fewer available for the rest of his/her life.,Investing in Equities,Topic 6 II. Principles of Security Analysis,Types of Security Analysis,1. Fundamental Analysis2. Technical Analysis,The Father of Fundamental Analysis: Benjam

11、in Graham,Who was Benjamin Graham?Sources: Security Analysis (Graham and Dodd); The Intelligent Investor (Graham),Ben Graham and Mr. Market:,Ben Graham long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should

12、 imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his. Even though the business that the two of you own

13、 may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Markets quotations will be anything but stable. For, it is sad to say, Mr. Market is a fellow who has incurable emotional problems. At times he falls euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he

14、names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that y

15、ou will unload your interest on him.,Ben Graham and Mr. Market Continued:,Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesnt mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these cond

16、itions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he sh

17、ows up someday in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you arent certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you dont belong in the gam

18、e. As they say in poker, “If youve been in the game 30 minutes and you dont know who the patsy is, youre the patsy.”,B. Grahams Fundamental Investment Rules,1. Adequate Size 2. Sufficient Strong Financial Condition 3. Earnings Stability 4. Dividend Record 5. Earnings Growth 6. Moderate Price/Earning

19、s Ratio 7. Moderate Ratio of Price to Assets,C. Terms,1. Net Current Assets (NCA) Defined as: Current Assets- Current Liabilities- Long-Term Debt- Preferred Stock NCA Total NCAc = NCA/# of Common Shares,C. Terms (continued),2. Data Source S&P Stock Guide Value Line, etc. 3. Earnings Per Share (EPS)

20、4. Market Price 5. Book Value Per Share 6. Dividends Per Share 7. Current Ratio,C. Terms (continued),8. Total Debt9. Equity 10. Growth g = (1 + RP,-1)(1 + RP,-2) . (1 + RP,-10) -1,1/n,D. The Graham Model,1. Group A Criteria #1: E/P 2 (AAA Yield) (1 pt.)E/P 1.33 (AAA Yield) (1/2 pt.) #2: P/E .67 (AAA

21、 Yield) (1 pt.)D/P .50 (AAA Yield) (1/2 pt) #5: P/NCA 1 (1 pt.)P/NCA 1.33 (1/2 pt.),D. The Graham Model (continued),2. Group B Criteria #6: CR 2 (1 pt.)CR 1.8 (1/2 pt.) #7: TD/E 0 (1/2 pt.) #9: G10 7%/YR. (1 pt.)G5 7%/YR. (1/2 pt.) #10: No more than 2 declines in earnings of 5% each over the last 10

22、 years for one full point. No more than 3 declines in earnings of 5% or more in last 10 years for one-half point.,Contemporary Fundamentals:,Peter Lynchs Ten Golden Rules of Investing:1. Dont be intimidated by professionals2. Look in your own backyard3. Dont buy something you cant illustrate with a

23、crayon4. Make sure you have the stomach for stocks5. Avoid hot stocks in hot industries6. Owning stocks is like having children. Do not have more than you can handle.7. Dont even try to predict the future.8. Avoid weekend worrying. Do not get scared out of good stocks. Own your mind.9. Never invest

24、in a company without first understanding its finances.10. Do not expect too much, too soon. Think long-term.,Contemporary Fundamentals:,Peter Lynchs mistakes to avoid:1. Thinking that this year will be any different than any other year.2. Becoming too concerned over whether the stock market is going

25、 up or down.3. Trying to time the market.4. Not knowing the story behind the company inwhich you are buying stock.5. Buying stocks for the short-term.,Contemporary Fundamentals:,Lynch Maxims:1. A good company usually increases its dividends every year.2. You can lose money in a very short time, but

26、it takes a long time to make money.3. The stock market isnt a gamble, as long as you pick good companies that you think will do well, and not just because of the stock price.4. You have to research the company before you put money into it.,Lynch Maxims (cont.),5. When you invest in the stock market

27、you should always diversify. 6. You should invest in several stocks (5). 7. Never fall in love with a stock, always have an open mind. 8. Do your homework. 9. Just because a stock goes down doesnt mean it cant go lower. 10. Over the long-term it is generally better to buy stocks in small companies.

28、11. Never buy a stock because it is cheap, but because you know a lot about it. Source: One Up On Wallstreet, by Peter Lynch,Sir John Marks Templeton,Who is Sir John Marks Templeton? John Templeton borrowed $10,000 and started a brilliant investment career, which enabled him to be one of two investo

29、rs to become billionaires solely through their investment prowess. Templeton has had decade after decade of 20% plus annual returns and managed over $6 Billion in assets. Templeton is generally regarded as one of the worlds wisest and most successful investors. Forbes Magazine said,“Templeton is one

30、 of a handful of true investment greats in a field of crowed mediocrity and bloated reputations.” Templeton holds that the common denominator connecting successful people with successful enterprises is a devotion to ethical and spiritual principles. Many regard Sir John as the greatest Wallstreet In

31、vestor of all time.,Sir John Mark Templeton,Sir Johns 16 Rules for Investment Success:1. Invest for maximum total real return including taxes and inflation.2. Invest. Dont trade or speculate.3. Remain flexible and open-minded about types of investments. No one kind of investment is always best.4. Bu

32、y low. Buy what others are despondently selling. Then sell what others are despondently buying.5. Search for bargains among quality stocks.6. Buy value not market trends or economic value.7. Diversify. There is safety in numbers.8. Do your homework. Do not take the word of experts. Investigatebefore

33、 you invest.,Templetons 16 Rules (Cont.),9. Aggressively monitor your investments. 10. Dont panic. Sometimes you wont have everything sold as the market crashes. Once the market has crashed, dont sell unless you find another more attractive undervalued stock to buy. 11. Learn from your mistakes, but

34、 do not dwell on them. 12. Begin with prayer, you will think more clearly. 13. Outperforming the market is a difficult task, you must outthink the managers of the largest institutions. 14. Success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions. 15. There is no free lunch. Do not invest

35、 on sentiment. Never invest in an IPO. Never invest on a tip. Run the numbers and research the quality of management. 16. Do not be fearful or negative too ofter. For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. Stocks.,Warren Buffett-the Sage of Omaha,Buffetts Four Steps to Investing:1. Turn of

36、f the stock market.2. Dont worry about the economy.3. Buy a business, not a stock. Change your perspective to that of a business owner and learn as much as possible about the business and industry.4. Manage a portfolio of businesses. Dont diversify for diversifications sake.,Buffett on Diversificati

37、on,You cant be a Bo Jackson in investing. Spread your energies and your capital too many ways, and you are courting disaster. If you have really taken your time and only picked stocks that are bona-fide doozies, theres no need to diversify for safety. If youre not supremely confident about the futur

38、e of each stock in your small portfolio, perhaps you should never have invested in it. Remember, the fewer stocks you have, the more time you can spend becoming an expert in them . You should never own more than ten stocks. We dont believe in the Noahs Ark principle of investing, winding up with two

39、 of everything. Then you have a zoo.,Buffett on the Ideal Investor Personality,The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You dont need tons of IQ in this business. You dont have to be able to play three-dimensional chess or duplicate bridge. You need a temperament tha

40、t derives great pleasure neither from being with the crowd nor against the crowd. You know youre right, not because of the position of others but because your facts and your reasoning are right.,Buffets Tenets of Investing:,Buffets Business Tenets for Investing:1. Is the business simple and understa

41、ndable?2. Does the business have an identifiable consumer monopoly or franchise product?3. Does the business have a consistent operating history over time. Are earnings (net income) increasing and is the ROE consistently high (25-30%).4. Does the business have favorable long-term prospects? Is it a

42、franchise or least cost commodity producer? Look for “Goodwill” Invest within your circle of competence. Its not how big the circle is that counts, its how well you define the parameters. - Warren Buffett “Good Businesses are the ones that in some way are reasonably sheltered from competition. That

43、gets to having what I call a franchise of some sort.” - Warren Buffett,Buffets Tenets (Cont.),Buffets Management Tenets:5. Is management rational? Does the management use excess cash to “buy back” stock and issue dividends, or expand company into low return investments. Does management express that

44、they are committed to the best interests of the shareholders total return on investment.6. Is management candid with its shareholders? Does management do things the way that everyone else does or do they think and look at their environment before doing things? Business schools reward complex behavio

45、r more than simple behavior; but simple behavior is more effective. - Warren Buffett,Buffetts Tenets (Continued):,7. Does the Company have less than 30% debt?8. How much does the business have to spend on maintaining operations (check out operating ratios).9. Can the Company adjust prices during inf

46、lation? “Our favorite holding period is forever.” - Warren Buffett “The Margin of error is the cornerstone of our investment philosophy: Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results.” - Warren Buffett. “A great investment op

47、portunity occurs when a marvelous business encounters a onetime huge but solvable problem.” - Warren Buffett.,Buffets Tenets:,10. Focus on return on equity, not earnings per share. EPS is meaningless, since the equity base can expand over time due to increased retained earnings. Therefore, EPS does

48、not necessarily reflect good managerial performance.11. Calculate owner earnings. Seek out companies that produce cash in excess. Owner earnings is equal to net income plus depreciation, depletion, and amortization, minus capital expenditures necessary to maintain its economic position and unit volu

49、me. Id rather have a $10 million business making 15% than a $100 million business making 5%. I have other places I can put the money. - Warren Buffett We like to buy Businesses, but we dont like to sell them. -Warren Buffett,Buffets Tenets:,12. Look for companies with high profit margins. Companies

50、with tenacious cost-cutters. Remember companies with high costs will always come up with new ways to spend more.13. For every dollar retained, make sure the company has created at least three dollars of market value. Calculate the retained earnings to market value ratio (use a 10 year trend). Dollar created/Dollar retained.,