ASTM E1946-2007 Standard Practice for Measuring Cost Risk of Buildings and Building Systems《估算建筑物和建筑系统成本风险的标准实施规范》.pdf
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1、Designation: E 1946 07Standard Practice forMeasuring Cost Risk of Buildings and Building Systems1This standard is issued under the fixed designation E 1946; the number immediately following the designation indicates the year oforiginal adoption or, in the case of revision, the year of last revision.
2、 A number in parentheses indicates the year of last reapproval. Asuperscript epsilon (e) indicates an editorial change since the last revision or reapproval.1. Scope1.1 This practice covers a procedure for measuring cost riskfor buildings and building systems, using the Monte Carlosimulation techniq
3、ue as described in Guide E 1369.1.2 A computer program is required for the Monte Carlosimulation. This can be one of the commercially availablesoftware programs for cost risk analysis, or one constructed bythe user.2. Referenced Documents2.1 ASTM Standards:2E 631 Terminology of Building Construction
4、sE 833 Terminology of Building EconomicsE 1369 Guide for Selecting Techniques for Treating Uncer-tainty and Risk in the Economic Evaluation of Buildingsand Building SystemsE 1557 Classification for Building Elements and RelatedSiteworkUNIFORMAT IIE 2168 Classification for Allowance, Contingency and
5、Re-serve Sums in Building Construction Estimating3. Terminology3.1 DefinitionsFor definition of terms used in this guide,refer to Terminologies E 631 and E 833.4. Summary of Practice4.1 The procedure for calculating building cost risk consistsof the following steps:4.1.1 Identify critical cost eleme
6、nts.4.1.2 Eliminate interdependencies between critical ele-ments.4.1.3 Select Probability Density Function.4.1.4 Quantify risk in critical elements.4.1.5 Create a cost model.4.1.6 Conduct a Monte Carlo simulation.4.1.7 Interpret the results.4.1.8 Conduct a sensitivity analysis.5. Significance and Us
7、e5.1 Building cost risk analysis (BCRA) provides a tool forbuilding owners, architects, engineers, and contractors tomeasure and evaluate the cost risk exposures of their buildingconstruction projects.3Specifically, BCRA helps answer thefollowing questions:5.1.1 What are the probabilities for the co
8、nstruction contractto be bid above or below the estimated value?5.1.2 How low or high can the total project cost be?5.1.3 What is the appropriate amount of contingency to use?5.1.4 What cost elements have the greatest impact on thebuildings cost risk exposure?5.2 BCRA can be applied to a building pr
9、ojects contractcost, construction cost (contract cost plus construction changeorders), and project cost (construction cost plus owners cost),depending on the users perspectives and needs. This practiceshall refer to these different terms generally as “building cost.”6. Procedure6.1 Identify Critical
10、 Cost Elements:6.1.1 A building cost estimate consists of many variables.Even though each variable contributes to the total building costrisk, not every variable makes a significant enough contribu-tion to warrant inclusion in the cost model. Identify the criticalelements in order to simplify the co
11、st risk model.6.1.2 A critical element is one which varies up or downenough to cause the total building cost to vary by an amountgreater than the total building costs critical variation, and onewhich is not composed of any other element which qualifies asa critical element. This criterion is express
12、ed as:IF VY. VCRIT(1)AND Y contains no other element X where VX. VCRITTHEN Y is a critical elementwhere:1This practice is under the jurisdiction of ASTM Committee E06 on Perfor-mance of Buildings and is the direct responsibility of Subcommittee E06.81 onBuilding Economics.Current edition approved Ap
13、ril 1, 2007. Published April 2007. Originallyapproved in 1998. Last previous edition approved in 2002 as E 1946 02.2For referenced ASTM standards, visit the ASTM website, www.astm.org, orcontact ASTM Customer Service at serviceastm.org. For Annual Book of ASTMStandards volume information, refer to t
14、he standards Document Summary page onthe ASTM website.3This practice is based, in part, on the article, “Measuring Cost Risk of BuildingProjects,” by Douglas N. Mitten and Benson Kwong, Project Management Services,Inc., Rockville, MD, 1996.1Copyright ASTM International, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, PO Box
15、 C700, West Conshohocken, PA 19428-2959, United States.VY5 (2)Max. percentage variation of the element Y! * Ys anticipated cost!Total Building costVCRIT= Critical Variation of the Building Cost.6.1.3 A typical value for the total building costs criticalvariation is 0.5%4. By experience this limits t
16、he number ofcritical elements to about 20. A larger VCRITwill lead to fewercritical elements and a smaller VCRITwill yield more. A riskanalysis with too few elements is over-simplistic. Too manyelements makes the analysis more detailed and difficult tointerpret. A BCRA with about 20 critical element
17、s provides anappropriate level of detail. Review the critical variation usedand the number of critical elements for a BCRA against theunique requirements for each project and the design stage. Ahigher critical variance resulting in fewer critical elements, ismore appropriate at the earlier stages of
18、 design.6.1.4 Arrange the cost estimate in a hierarchical structuresuch as UNIFORMAT II (Classification E 1557). Table 1shows a sample project cost model based on a UNIFORMATII Levels 2 and 3 cost breakdown. The UNIFORMAT IIstructure of the cost estimate facilitates the search of criticalelements fo
19、r the risk analysis. One does not need to examineevery element in the cost estimate in order to identify thosewhich are critical.6.1.5 Starting at the top of the cost estimate hierarchy (thatis, the Group Element level), identify critical elements in adownward search through the branches of the hier
20、archy.Conduct this search by repeatedly asking the question: Is itpossible that this element could vary enough to cause the totalbuilding cost to vary, up or down, by more than its criticalvariation? Terminate the search at the branch when a negativeanswer is encountered. Examine the next branch unt
21、il allbranches are exhausted and the list of critical elements estab-lished. Table 1 and Fig. 1 show the identification of criticalelements in the sample project using the hierarchical searchtechnique.6.1.6 In the sample project, Group Element Superstructurehas an estimated cost of $915,000 with an
22、estimated maximumvariation of $275,000, which is more than $50,000, or 0.5 % ofthe estimated total building cost. It is therefore a candidate fora critical element. However, when we examine the IndividualElements that make up Superstructure, we discover that FloorConstruction has a estimated maximum
23、 variation of $244,500,qualifying as a critical element; whereas Roof Constructioncould only vary as much as $40,000, and does not qualify.Since Floor Construction is now a critical element, we wouldeliminate Superstructure, its parent, as a critical element.6.1.7 Include overhead cost elements in t
24、he cost model,such as general conditions, profits, and escalation, and checkfor criticality as with the other cost elements. Consider timerisk factors, such as long lead time or dock strikes for importedmaterial, when evaluating escalation cost.6.1.8 Allowance and contingency, as commonly used in th
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