API PUBL 4546-1992 Hazard Response Modeling Uncertainty (A Quantitative Method) Volume II Evaluation of Commonly Used Hazardous Gas Dispersion Models《灾害响应模型的不确定性(定量法).第2卷.评价普遍使用有害气.pdf
《API PUBL 4546-1992 Hazard Response Modeling Uncertainty (A Quantitative Method) Volume II Evaluation of Commonly Used Hazardous Gas Dispersion Models《灾害响应模型的不确定性(定量法).第2卷.评价普遍使用有害气.pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《API PUBL 4546-1992 Hazard Response Modeling Uncertainty (A Quantitative Method) Volume II Evaluation of Commonly Used Hazardous Gas Dispersion Models《灾害响应模型的不确定性(定量法).第2卷.评价普遍使用有害气.pdf(334页珍藏版)》请在麦多课文档分享上搜索。
1、API PUBL*454b 92 = 0732290 0505438 771 W Hazard Response Modeling Uncertainty (A Quantitative Method) Volume II Evaluation of Commonly Used Hazardous Gas Dispersion Models HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES API PUBLICATION NUMBER 4546 OCTOBER 1992 American Petmleum Institute 1220 L Street, Northwest
2、11 Washington, D.C. 20005 Hazardous Response Modeling Uncertainty (A Quantitative Method) Volume II Evaluation of Commonly Used Hazardous Gas Dispersion Models Prepared for: American Petroleum Institute Health and Environmental Sciences Department and Air Force Engineering and Services Center Tyndal
3、l Air Force Base PUBLICATION NUMBER 4546 OCTOBER 1992 PREPARED UNDER CONTRACT BY: SIGMA RESEARCH CORPORATION 196 BAKER AVENUE CONCORD, MASSACHUSETTS American Petroleum Institute APT PUBLWSU 92 0732290 0505W+O 32T FOREWORD API PUBLICATIONS NECESSARILY ADDRESS PROBLEMS OF A GENERAL NATURE. Wi“H RESPEC
4、T TO PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES, LOCAL, STATE, AND EDEFUL, LAWS AND REGULATIONS SHOULD BE REVIEWED. TURERS, OR SUPPLERS ?io WARN AND PROPEZCY TRAIN AND EQUIP THEIR EMPLOYEES, AND OTHERS EXPOSED, CONCERNING AND SAFETY RISKS AND PRECAUTIONS, NOR UNDERTAKING “EX3 OBLIGAIIONS UNDER LOCAL, STWE, OR FEDERAL
5、 LAWS. NOTHING CONTAINED IN ANY API PUBLICATION IS To BE CONSTRUED AS API IS NOT UNDERTAKING TO THE DUTIES OF EMPLOYERS, MANUFAC- GRANTING ANY RIGHT, BY IMPLICATION OR OTHERWISE, FOR THE MANU- FACTURE, SALE, OR USE OF ANY METHOD, APPARATUS, OR PRODUCT COV- THE PUBLICATION BE CONSTRUED AS INSURING AN
6、YONE AGAINST LIABL- ERED BY LEMERS PATENT. NEITHER SHOULD ANYTHING CONTAINED IN ITY FOR I“GEMENT OF LEXES PAENT. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS THE FOLLOWING PEOPLE ARE RECOGNIZED FOR “HEIR CONTRIBUTIONS OF TIME AND EXPERTISE DURING THIS STUDY AND IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS EPRT API STAFF CONT ACTr Howard Feldman,
7、 Health and Environmental Sciences MEMBERS OF THE AIR MODELING TASK FORCE Kenneth Steinberg, Exxon Research and Enginering Company Thomas Baker, ARCO Oil and Gas Company Douglas Blewitt, Amoco Corporation Richard Carney, Phillips Petroleum Comany David Fontaine, Chevron Research and Technology Compa
8、ny Lee Gilmer, Texaco Research Marvin Hem, Shell Development Company Gilbert Jersey, Mobil Research and Development Company George Lauer, ARCO Robert Peace, Und WE ARE INDEBTED TO CAPTAIN MICHAEL MOSS, UNITED STATES AIR FORCE, FOR HIS CONSIDERABLE EFFORTS DURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PUBLICATION.
9、iii APZ PURL*454b 92 W O732290 0505442 IT2 M This volume of the final report provides documentation of some of the results of a two year project entitled Hazard ResDonse Modeliny Uncertainty (A Quantitative Methodl. tasks related to evaluating the performance of commonly used hazardous gas dispersio
10、n models is summarized. Work that has been accomplished on the technical work Eight datasets are used in the evaluation. Those field experiments that involve the release of dense-gas clouds are Burro, Coyote, Desert Tortoise, Goldfish, Maplin Sands, and Thorney Island. Those field experiments that i
11、nvolve the release of passive clouds are Hanford (Kr85 tracer studies) and Prairie Grass. Modelers Data Archive (MDA), and an extensive set of software was developed to prepare data-files for each model evaluated. Data from these experiments are placed in a common format as a Fourteen dispersion mod
12、els are evaluated, including six publicly= available computer models (AFTOX, DEGADIS, HEGADAS, I-, OB/DG, and SLAB) and six proprietary computer models (AIRTOX, CARM, FOCS, GACTAR, PHAST, and TRACEI. McQuaid) are also evaluated for comparative purposes. A simple Gaussian plume formula and a set of n
13、omograms (Britter and The statistical evaluation indicates that there are a few models that can successfully predict concentrations with a mean bias of 20 percent or less, a relative mean square error of 50 percent or less, and little variability of the residual errors with the input parameters Thes
14、e models are identified in Section VII. It is also clear that model performance is not dependent upon model complexity. It is necessary to point out that this evaluation exercise has been by no means independent, since all of the models have been previously tested by the developers with at least one
15、 of the datasets. Furthermore, some of the results may be fortuitous, since, in a few cases, certain models have been applied to source scenarios for which they were not originally intended. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Sect ion Title Paqe EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES-1 I . INTRODUCTION 1 A . OBJECTIVES . 1 II . II
16、I . B . BACKGROUND . 3 1 . EPA Model Evaluation Program 3 2 . Model Sensitivity Studies 5 Heavy Gas Dispersion Models . 6 5 . Comprehensive Model Evaluation Studies . 7 6 . CMA Model Evaluation Studies 8 C . SCOPE . 8 DATASETS . 11 A . CRITERIA FOR CHOOSING DATASETS 11 B . DESCRIPTION OF INDIVIDUAL
17、STUDIES 14 1 . Burro and Coyote . 14 2 . Desert Tortoise and Goldfish . 16 3 . Hanford Kr85 . 22 4 . Maplin Sands . 25 3 . Summary of Field Data 5 4 . A Methodology for Evaluating 5 . Prairie Grass . 28 6 . Thorney Island 32 C . CREATION OF A MODELERS DATA ARCHIVE . 36 D . METHODS FOR CALCULATING RE
18、QUIRED VARIABLES . . 39 1 . Burro . 40 2 . Coyote 41 3 . Desert Tortoise 41 4 . Goldfish . 42 5 . Hanford Kra5 43 6 . Maplin Sands . 46 7 . Prairie Grass . 47 8 . Thorney Island 48 E . SUMMARY OF DATASETS . 49 MODELS 53 A . CRITERIA FOR CHOOSING MODELS . 53 B . DESCRIPTION OF MODELS EVALUATED . 57 1
19、 . AFTOX 3.1 (Air Force Toxic Chemical Model . 58 2 . AIRTOX 60 4 . CHARM 6.1 (Complex and Hazardous Air Release Model . 65 5 . DEGADIS 2.1 (DEnse GAS DISpersion Model) . 67 3 . Britter ensor Array for the Desert Tortoise Series Experiments 20 ionfiguration of Meteorological Towers and Kr85 Detector
20、s for the Hanford Kr85 Trials (Reference 18) 24 Initial Configuration of the Maplin Sands Site 27 - Fisure 1. 2. 5. . 3. C 4. C 6. Revised Configuration of the Maplin Sands Site (After Trail 35) . 27 7. Con igi 9. 11. xation of Instrumentation Used for the Phase I Trials at Thorney Island (Reference
21、 25) . . 34 Correlation for continuous releases from Bratter and McQuaid (Reference 42) 64 Correlation for instantaneous release from Britter and McQuaid (Reference 42) 64 Model performance measures, Geometric Mean Bias MG = exp(PnC, - QnC,) and geometric variance VG = exp(QnC, - 4nC,12 for concentr
22、ation predictions and Observations for the continuous dense gas group of datasets (Burro, Coyote, Desert Tortoise, Goldfish, Maplin Sands, Thorney Island) . Ninety-five percent confidence intervals on MG are indicated. The solid line is the “minimum VG“ curve, from Equation (33). The dashed lines re
23、present factor of twoi1 agreement between mean predictions and observations . 127 Model performance measures, Geometric Mean Bias MG = exp(QnC, - QnC,) and geometric variance VG = exp(QnC, - QIIC,) for concentration predictions and observations for the instantaneous dense gas data from Thorney Islan
24、d. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals on MG are indicated. The solid line is the VG“ curve, from Equation The dashed lines represent “factor of 8. 10. _ two“ agreement between mean predictions and observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 12. Model performance measures, Geometric
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