21st International Forum on Systems, Software, and .ppt
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1、21st International Forum on Systems, Software, and COCOMO Cost Modeling Systems Engineering Cost Estimation: System-of-Systems Jon K. Ilseng November 8, 2006,Introduction Systems Engineering Definitions COSYSMO SECOST History SECOST Capabilities and Functionality SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-
2、of-Interest System-of-Systems Definition System-of-Systems Examples SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Systems SECOST Recommended Modifications Summary and Conclusions,Agenda,Introduction,Systems Engineering Cost Estimates Our customers require believable and accurate estimates OSD AT&L encourag
3、ing defense contractors to find “most accurate and consistent systems engineering cost estimation method” Critical that all 5 Raytheon Business Units (IIS, NCS, SAS, IDS, RMS) submit accurate, consistent, and believable cost estimates,Introduction,Systems Engineering Cost Estimates Various cost esti
4、mates used past 20 years for a “system-of-interest” Heuristic and rule of thumb Systems Engineer use knowledge less time-consuming than bottoms-up,Introduction,Systems Engineering Cost Estimates Motivation for improving SE Cost Estimates Improved estimation process consistency Improved accuracy, sta
5、keholder confidence due to historical basis Establish cost directly correlated with customer supplied requirements & sizing artifacts Parametric Cost Initiative software & hardware study performed a few years back Parametric estimates 25-35% less expensive to develop than “bottoms-up” Parametric est
6、imates every bit as accurate as “bottoms-up” Improved cost realism, more quantifiable risks Leaner, more supportable cost bids Increased Trade Space/Reduced Cycle Time Some cost estimates require short turn-around time Better CMMI Support CMMI model reveals several requirements for cost estimation m
7、odel as organization moves from Level 2 through Levels 4 & 5,Formal SE Cost Estimation Supports CMMI,Level 2 Project Planning Project Monitoring and Control Consistent WBS Size and Complexity Drivers Attribute-Based Estimates,Level 3 Integrated Project Monitoring Measurement Repository Monitor Attri
8、butes Actuals vs Plan,Level 4 Organizational Process Performance Quantitative Project Management Data Collection Parametric Cost Estimation Model Local Model Calibration,Level 5 Organizational Innovation and DeploymentSE Parametric Modeling Represents an Innovative Approach,Introduction,Introduction
9、,Parametric Cost Estimation Method October 2003 OSD SE Summit OSDs position is parametric-based estimates are recommended technique for preparing SE Cost Estimates Why Parametric Cost Estimation Method Provides a credible source Shortens cost estimating cycle times Creates more easily defended negot
10、iation position with customer Reduces customer-approval cycle times Uses historical data to improve quality of cost estimates Establishes greater consistency in cost estimating process DCAA/DCMA Government agencies very supportive of parametrics,Systems Engineering Definitions,Systems Engineering Va
11、rious definitions across SE Domain Applying scientific & engineering efforts to integrate related technical parameters System solution which satisfies customers expectations Interdisciplinary approach which involves integrating various engineering disciplines (i.e., electrical design, software desig
12、n, hardware design Notice something missing from these various definitions! No mention of cost estimating, however, does not diminish importance of it Pro-active aggressive SE process during program life-cycle Lower life cycle costs High system quality & enhanced technical solution Minimizes cost &
13、schedule overruns,Systems Engineering Definitions,System-of-Interest Defined by ISO/IEC 15288 architectural structures Comprised of interacting system elements Each system element independent of each other; can operate on their own Only provides real value when connected together to provide system f
14、unctions,COSYSMO,Consortium developed COnstructive SYStems Engineering Cost MOdel (COSYSMO) parametric model University of Southern California Center for Software Engineering (USC/CSE) USC/CSE Industrial Affiliates (including Raytheon) COSYSMO Cost Model Accurately estimates time & effort for SE tas
15、ks Parametric-based cost model Successfully defended August 2005 doctoral dissertation Open public domain model COSYSMO led by Dr. Barry Boehm, USC/CSE, developer of COCOMO family of software cost models COSYSMO drawn significant interest & support from INCOSE,SECOST - History,Raytheon Affiliate bui
16、lds initial version of USCs COSYSMO Early 2001 “MyCOSYSMO” leveraged off Garlands SWCOST COCOMO II based Proven tool - used at Garland and other IIS sites for 8+ years,SECOST developed as Raytheons Proprietary version of MyCOSYSMO Early 2004 Added back Company Proprietary functionality,SECOST deploy
17、ed at several Raytheon business units as a “second opinion” for proposals,Beginning development of COSYSMO Initiated by paper walked-on in 2000 by a Raytheon Affiliate to USC/CSE Joint effort by USC/CSE and INCOSE,SECOST Capabilities and Functionality,Suite of MS Excel spreadsheets Generates, docume
18、nts, and archives SE cost estimates within single process-focused framework Supports ROMs, budgetary estimates, formal proposal bids Supports multiple levels of estimate formality & complexity Consists of SECOST Framework USC COSYSMO is embedded engine Interfaces with standard Raytheon Pricing Syste
19、ms Supports Cost Volume & generates Basis-of-Estimates In-Process & Historical Data Collection Results used for local COSYSMO model calibrations Local COSYSMO model calibrations feeds USC COSYSMO,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest,Cost estimation mode prepare SE cost estimates for futur
20、e pursuits Data collection mode collects SE labor hours expended during program execution Current Raytheon NCS Systems Engineering Cost Estimation Enabler Using SECOST Size Drivers (Requirements, Interfaces, Algorithms, Operational Scenarios) Using SECOST Size Drivers Complexity Criteria Using SECOS
21、T EREQ Conversion and Reuse Factors,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest,Focus on Cost Estimation Mode Cost Estimation Mode 15 steps 1) Initialize Project Parameters (e.g. project name, period of performance, type of estimate) 2) Enter SE Contractor Work Breakdown Structure (e.g. Technica
22、l Management, IV&V, Requirements Definition & Validation) 3) Document Project Assumptions Assumptions always associated with SE cost estimates 4) Document and Register Project Risks Program risks always associated with SE cost estimates,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest (continued),Cos
23、t Estimation Mode 15 steps (continued) 5) Set COSYSMO Effort Multipliers (continued) Application Effort Multiplier evaluates specific COSYSMO application factors on scale from Very Low to Extremely High Requirements Understanding Architecture Understanding Level of Service Requirements Migration Com
24、plexity Number & Diversity of Installations/Platforms Number of Recursive Levels in Design Documentation to match lifecycle needs Technology Risk,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest (continued),Cost Estimation Mode 15 steps (continued) 5) Set COSYSMO Effort Multipliers (continued) Team E
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