ITU-R REPORT M 2072-2005 World mobile telecommunication market forecast《世界移动通信市场预测》.pdf

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1、 Rep. ITU-R M.2072 1 REPORT ITU-R M.2072 World mobile telecommunication market forecast (Question ITU-R 229/8) (2005) Executive Summary This Report provides a summary of the market analysis and forecast of evolution of mobile market and services for the future development of IMT-2000, systems beyond

2、 IMT-2000 and other systems. This Report has derived market related parameters and provided forecasts for 2010, 2015, and 2020 for the mobile market. These parameters are essential inputs in developing a spectrum estimate, for future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT 2000 in preparation

3、 for the World Radiocommunication Conference 2007. This Report describes analysis results information provided by about thirty administrations and organizations, in response to a request for information from the ITU (Circular Letter CACE/326). The findings of this Report are based on internal and ex

4、ternal studies to the year 2020 as well as detailed data on the traffic forecasts in different parts of the world. It also provides examples of potential services and applications of future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 from the year 2010 onwards. The Report consists of nine se

5、ctions: Section 1 and 2 provide an introduction and scope that provides context for the market study. Section 3 provides a reference to ITU Recommendations and Reports that are directly related to the market report. Section 4 provides market information both on a worldwide and regional level that ha

6、s been derived from the numerous input contributions. The information includes background information on types of systems used, traffic volume, coverage areas as well as information on subscribers and transition from 2G to 3G. Year 2004 and first half of 2005 are significant in deployment of IMT-200

7、0 systems. New tariffs (flat rate, large volume) were introduced, which will affect traffic volume (kbytes and minutes) in the future and will facilitate data usage adoption. Handsets capabilities have been enhanced with better operating systems, large memory and multimedia functions (photo, video c

8、amera, etc.). In September 2005 there are more than two billion mobile users in the world. Section 5 covers tendencies in service evolution to the year 2020 that includes applications/services envisaged for the future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 and several relevant case stud

9、ies. High performance, intelligent mobile terminals and rich content will continue to become available. Transmission speed equivalent to those of fixed system is becoming a reality with IMT-2000 systems, which offer transmission speeds of several Mbit/s. Beyond IMT-2000, the enhancements of its tech

10、nical capabilities, range of services and breadth of applications will be progressively introduced. 2 Rep. ITU-R M.2072 Section 6 identifies the key market parameters and provides numerous usage traffic forecasts. The size of the mobile communication market can be estimated from many kinds of parame

11、ters. It is also necessary for the market size estimation to take into account some key issues from contexts of the socioeconomic aspects technological, market, service, regulatory and industrial aspects. Traffic forecasts for daily traffic per user in 2020 were provided by several administrations a

12、nd international organizations, and vary from hundreds of MB/user/day to multiple GB/user/day. These differences result from the variety of environments and assumptions. Section 7 provides an overview of other radio systems that might interwork with the future development of IMT-2000. Present mobile

13、 communication systems have evolved by adding more and more system capabilities and enhancements, and the user will see a significant increase in capability through the future development of IMT-2000. Systems beyond IMT-2000 will be realized by functional fusion of existing, enhanced and newly devel

14、oped elements of IMT-2000, nomadic wireless access systems and other wireless systems with high commonality and seamless interworking. Section 8 provides calculated market attribute values per each service category and service environment for 2010, 2015 and 2020 which is essential input for spectrum

15、 estimate effort. The five market attributes are: market scale, number of session attempts, mean service bit rate, average session duration, and mobility ratio. Each service is mapped into the table composed of service type (very low rate data, low rate date and low multimedia, medium multimedia, hi

16、gh multimedia, super high multimedia) and traffic class (conversational, streaming, interactive and background). Six service environments are identified through a table composed of service usage pattern (home, office, public area) and teledensity (dense urban, suburban, rural). Section 9 identifies

17、items that will impact the markets of the future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 and provides some estimates on their impact on the market. The driving forces in the markets of the future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 are classified into four categories: tec

18、hnology forces, market, regulatory and idealistic forces. This Report contains details on regional markets in 2002 and a number of case studies about penetration forecasts up to 2020. The market report highlights strong growth in the wireless market with the share of mobile lines among the total fix

19、ed and mobile telecommunications network lines exceeding 50% in 2002 with most regions have higher mobile phone penetration than wireline. The Market Report has been compiled from input received from administrations and organisations worldwide and provides estimates of market growth for 2010, 2015,

20、and 2020. Rep. ITU-R M.2072 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 Introduction 5 2 Scope 5 3 Related ITU-R documents 6 3.1 Related Recommendations . 6 3.2 Related Reports. 6 4 Market of pre-IMT-2000 and IMT-2000 mobile systems 6 4.1 Worldwide market overview 6 4.2 Regional market information 9 4.2.1 Region 1 .

21、 9 4.2.2 Region 2 . 10 4.2.3 Region 3 . 12 5 General trends in service evolution 17 5.1 List of applications/services envisaged for the future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000. 18 5.2 Market issues 20 5.2.1 Case Study Brazil 20 5.2.2 Case Study Canada 21 5.2.3 Perspective on marke

22、t issues CEPT 22 5.2.4 Case Study China 22 5.2.5 Case Study Estonia 27 5.2.6 Case Study Japan 27 5.2.7 Case Study Republic of Korea 30 5.2.8 Perspective on market issues UMTS Forum. 33 5.2.9 Case Study USA 41 6 Usage forecast for future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 42 6.1 Key

23、market parameters . 42 6.1.1 Introduction 42 6.1.2 List of parameters. 43 6.2 Traffic forecast 46 6.2.1 Results from CEPT 46 6.2.2 Results from China. 46 6.2.3 Results from France Telecom 49 6.2.4 Results from Japan . 54 4 Rep. ITU-R M.2072 Page 6.2.5 Results from Korea 57 6.2.6 Results from UMTS Fo

24、rum . 57 6.2.7 Other information. 58 7 Usage forecast for other radio systems. 58 7.1 Introduction. 58 7.2 Overview of other systems identified . 59 7.3 Detailed information on other radio systems 59 7.4 Parameter forecasts for other radio systems . 60 7.4.1 Service issues . 60 7.4.2 Market forecast

25、s. 61 7.4.3 Traffic forecasts . 65 8 Market related parameters for spectrum calculation 68 8.1 Traffic classes for service categorization . 68 8.1.1 Conversational class. 69 8.1.2 Interactive class 69 8.1.3 Streaming class 69 8.1.4 Background class . 70 8.2 Map the services into service category (SC

26、) table per each service environment (SE) 70 8.3 Market attribute values per SC and SE. 72 9 Driving forces. 87 9.1 Overview. 87 9.2 Technology forces 88 9.3 Market forces 89 9.4 Regulatory forces 91 9.5 Idealistic forces. 92 Annex 1 Questionnaire on the services and market for the future developmen

27、t of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 . 94 Annex 2 List of responses to “service view” document . 103 Annex 3 Market size estimation and traffic forecast methodologies 106 Annex 4 Method to analyse responses 112 Annex 5 Worksheet towards list of applications/services 120 Rep. ITU-R M.2072 5 1 In

28、troduction International Mobile Telecommunications-2000 (IMT-2000) systems are third generation mobile systems, which provide access to a wide range of telecommunications services, supported by the fixed telecommunication networks (e.g. PSTN/ISDN/Internet Protocol (IP), and to other services, which

29、are specific to mobile users. Key features of IMT-2000 are: a high degree of commonality of design worldwide; compatibility of services within IMT-2000 and with the fixed networks; high quality; small terminals suitable for worldwide use; worldwide roaming capability; capability for multimedia appli

30、cations within a wide range of services and terminals. The capabilities of IMT-2000 systems are being continuously enhanced in line with market and technology trends. The specifications for the initial releases of IMT-2000, which are defined in Recommendation ITU-R M.1457, have been completed, and t

31、he commercial deployment of IMT-2000 has begun. Work is already underway in various external organizations to extend the capabilities of the initial releases in line with market expectations and technology trends. To help meet the ever increasing demands for wireless communication, and the expected

32、higher data rates needed to meet user demands, it is necessary to forecast the evolution of mobile market and services for the future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000. In order to produce this Report, the ITU sought information on the analysis and forecast of services and market a

33、spects. This information was gathered by means of a questionnaire, distributed via circular letter (Circular Letter CACE/326) to a range of organizations worldwide, including organizations outside the ITU. Within this Report, the questionnaire is also referred to as the “service view” document, and

34、can be found in Annex 1. The responses to the questionnaire received by the ITU have been collated and summarized within this Report. Further, data presentations have been harmonized to produce a set of parameters to be used for the purpose of spectrum requirement estimation. A list of responses rec

35、eived is included in Annex 2. Content within the responses to the questionnaire has been included in the Report in accordance with the original response. Although content and data has been aligned editorially, no changes have been made to the original meaning or values. 2 Scope This Report provides

36、a summary of the market analysis and forecast of the future market, as well as detailed data on the traffic forecasts, based on internal and external studies to the year 2010 2020 as well as detailed data on the traffic forecasts in different parts of the world. It also provides examples of potentia

37、l services and applications of future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 from the year 2010 onwards. The information involved in this Report will be considered in the methodology and spectrum estimates activities in the preparation for WRC-07. 6 Rep. ITU-R M.2072 This Report is stru

38、ctured in six main parts describing: Market of pre-IMT-2000 and IMT-2000 mobile systems General Trends in Service Evolution Usage forecast for future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 Usage forecast for other radio systems Market related parameters for spectrum calculation Driving

39、forces 3 Related ITU-R documents 3.1 Related Recommendations Recommendation ITU-R M.1457 Detailed specification of the radio interfaces of International Mobile Telecommunications-2000 (IMT-2000) Recommendation ITU-R M.1645 Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT-2000 and sy

40、stems beyond IMT-2000 Recommendation ITU-R M.1768 Methodology for calculation of spectrum requirements for the future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 3.2 Related Reports Report ITU-R M.2074 Report on Radio Aspects for the terrestrial component of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2

41、000 4 Market of pre-IMT-2000 and IMT-2000 mobile systems Section 4 provides market information both on a worldwide and regional level. The information includes background information on types of systems used, traffic volume, coverage areas as well as information on subscribers and the transition fro

42、m 2G to 3G. 4.1 Worldwide market overview Many factors contribute to explain the current mobile penetration levels: some are linked to a countrys historical peculiarities such as the nature of the regulatory environment, or the particulars of the operators offerings these factors are short-term by n

43、ature. Other factors are linked to fundamental social and economic characteristics of the country. Extensive literature exists that describes the historical evolution of the fixed and mobile telecommunication penetration worldwide. Table 1 compares mobile penetration rates at continent/subcontinent

44、basis between 1995 and 2002. The share of mobile lines among the total fixed and mobile telecommunications network lines grew strongly during the 1995-2002 period to exceed 50% in 2002 as shown in Table 2. Most regions have or shortly will have higher mobile phone penetration than wireline penetrati

45、on: for high teledensity countries, mainly as a complement, or, for developing countries, as a substitute to expensive fixed infrastructures. Rep. ITU-R M.2072 7 TABLE 1 Mobile penetration evolution per continent/subcontinent 1995-2002 (Source: ITU 2003 World Telecommunication Indicators) Penetratio

46、n 1995 (%) Penetration 2002 (%) CAGR 1995-2002 subscriber growth(%) Western Europe 5.9 78.9 45 North America 12.4 47.5 21 Asia/Pacific 3.0 23.9 37 Central in 2002 it was 115 RMB. MOU was 240 min; in 2002, it was 207 min. The mobile data service user accounted for 71% of the mobile users, and new ser

47、vice income accounted for 10.2%, SMS was still the main mobile data service. China Unicom: ARPU of GSM was 57 RMB; in 2002 it was 59 RMB. ARPU of CDMA is 128 RMB; in 2002 it was 149 RMB. MOU of GSM was 174 min, in 2002, it was 169 min. MOU of CDMA was 338 min; in 2002 it was 350 min. Japan Traffic V

48、olume: In fiscal year 2002 (end of March 2003), the number of calls made from mobile phones was at 47.45 billion (a 4.9% increase over the previous fiscal year. Holding time of calls originated by mobile phones and PHS both continued to rise at 1.6 billion hours (a 5.4% increase over the previous fi

49、scal year) and 160 million hours (a 33.9% increase from the previous fiscal year) respectively. Regional and geographical characteristics: In fiscal year 2003, Japan cellular penetration was about 68% including the penetrations of 92.6% in Tokyo metropolitan district, followed by 78.4% in Aichi Prefecture, and 77.2% in Osaka Prefecture. Japan has 47 prefectures, including Tokyo metropolitan district, Aichi and Osaka Prefectures, divided by geographical characteristics. Table 8 shows a distribution of cellular penetrations among t