ASCE GSP 224-2011 GEORISK 2011 GEOTECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT.pdf

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1、 GEOTECHNICAL SPECIAL PUBLICATION NO. 224 GEORISK 2011 GEOTECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT PROCEEDINGS OF GEORISK 2011 June 2628, 2011 Atlanta, Georgia SPONSORED BY Geo-Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers EDITED BY C. Hsein Juang Kok Kwang Phoon Anand J. Puppala Russell A. G

2、reen Gordon A. Fenton Published by the American Society of Civil Engineers Copyright and Disclaimer ISBN: 978-0-7844-1183-4 Any statements expressed in these materials are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the views of ASCE, which takes no responsibility for any statem

3、ent made herein. No reference made in this publication to any specific method, product, process or service constitutes or implies an endorsement, recommendation, or warranty thereof by ASCE. The materials are for general information only and do not represent a standard of ASCE, nor are they intended

4、 as a reference in purchase specifications, contracts, regulations, statutes, or any other legal document. ASCE makes no representation or warranty of any kind, whether express or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or utility of any information, apparatus, product, or proce

5、ss discussed in this publication, and assumes no liability therefore. This information should not be used without first securing competent advice with respect to its suitability for any general or specific application. Anyone utilizing this information assumes all liability arising from such use, in

6、cluding but not limited to infringement of any patent or patents. Copyright 2011 by the American Society of Civil Engineers. All Rights Reserved. ASCE and American Society of Civil EngineersRegistered in U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. American Society of Civil Engineers ASCE International Headqua

7、rters 1801 Alexander Bell Drive Reston, VA 20191-4400 USA Call Toll-Free in the U.S.: 1-800-548-2723 (ASCE) Call from anywhere in the world: 1-703-295-6300 Internet: http:/www.pubs.asce.org Preface This Geotechnical Special Publication is the official proceedings of GeoRisk 2011, the Geo-Institute (

8、G-I) conference on Geotechnical Risk Assessment and Management. GeoRisk 2011 is the first G-I specialty conference held in this field since the 1996 “Uncertainty in the Geologic Environment: from Theory to Practice” conference presented in Madison, Wisconsin. Uncertainties in the geologic environmen

9、t, and their effects, are well recognized by geotechnical engineers. Use of higher factors of safety in geotechnical practice than in other disciplines is a reflection of the greater uncertainties the geotechnical engineers face. In his 1965 Terzaghi Lecture, Arthur Casagrande introduced the concept

10、 of “calculated risk” as a means for accounting for these uncertainties in design. This concept was further elaborated by Robert V. Whitman in his 1981 Terzaghi Lecture on “evaluating calculated risk” and by Norbert R. Morgenstern in his Casagrande Lecture in 1995 on “managing risk.” Over the past f

11、ew decades, geotechnical engineers have become increasingly aware of the need and benefits of risk assessment and management in geotechnical engineering, as well as of the need to effectively communicate risk among and between engineers, clients, regulatory agencies, and the public. Risk assessment

12、and management is also a critical aspect of geotechnical practice from perspective of private industry. This Geotechnical Special Publication contains peer-reviewed technical papers that address such issues, covering new and continuing work on geohazard mitigation, uncertainty modeling, and risk ass

13、essment and management in all fields of geotechnical engineering from theory to practice. Held in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 26-28, 2011, this GeoRisk 2011 conference was initially proposed by C. Hsein Juang of the G-I Technical Committee on Risk Assessment and Management and approved by the G-I Conf

14、erence Coordination Committee (CCC) in April 2008. Steve Kramer was appointed as the CCC liaison to the Organizing Committee of the Conference, which included C. Hsein Juang (Chair), Kok-Kwang Phoon and Glenn Rix (Co-Chairs), Gordon A. Fenton, Edward Glynn, Russell A. Green, D.V. Griffiths, Anand Pu

15、ppala, and Xiong “Bill” Yu. In addition to papers submitted in response to the Call for Papers, the conference proceedings also includes the keynote lectures delivered by the following world renowned experts: “Risk of Limit-Equilibrium Failure of Long Earth Slopes: How it Depends on Length” by Erik

16、Vanmarcke “Development of a Risk-based Landslide Warning System” by Wilson Tang “Unresolved Problems in Geotechnical Risk and Reliability” by John Christian and Gregory Baecher “Learning to Live with Geohazards: From Research to Practice” by Suzanne Lacasse and Farrokh Nadim “Geo-Risks in the Busine

17、ss Environment” by William Brumund “The Practical Application of Risk Assessment to Dam Safety” by Gregg Scott All papers, both “submitted” and “keynote” papers, were reviewed following the same procedures and using the same technical standards of practice of the Geo-Institute of the American Societ

18、y of Civil Engineers. More than 260 abstracts and 155 papers were received in response to the Call for Papers. All papers were subject to a peer review process coordinated by the various session organizers and supervised by the conference editors. Two positive reviews were required for acceptance an

19、d two negative reviews were required for exclusion. Standard editorial review forms (online version) were applied to maintain uniform technical standards of the papers. As a result, 127 papers were accepted for presentations at the conference and published in this Geotechnical Special Publication. T

20、he editors expect that diverse assortment of papers written by a distinguished group of national and international authors will be both stimulating and inspiring to their readers. The papers are eligible for discussion in the Journal of Geotechnical and Geo-environmental Engineering and for ASCE awa

21、rd nominations. A publication of this quality would not have been possible without the dedication and professionalism of the session organizers and paper reviewers, the names of which appear in our subsequent acknowledgment. For those additional reviewers who were inadvertently omitted, we offer our

22、 sincere apologies. We wish to acknowledge the marvelous efforts of the invited keynote speakers, authors, reviewers, and session organizers for their significant contributions. We also wish to extend our special thanks to the organizers and panelists of the three important discussion panels, “Impac

23、t of Public Policy on Risk” “The Future of Risk, Reliability, and Probabilistic Methods in Geotechnical Engineering” “Geotechnical Business Risk” The first panel on “Impact of Public Policy on Risk” was organized by Robert B. Gilbert and its panelists included Joe D. Manous, Marty McCann, Jr., and B

24、rian Pallasch. The second panel on “The Future of Risk, Reliability, and Probabilistic Methods in Geotechnical Engineering” was organized by John T. Christian and Gregory B. Baecher and its panelists included Gregory B. Baecher, William Roberds, and Robert C. Patev. The third panel on “Geotechnical

25、Business Risk” was organized by Todd H. Rees and its panelists included Michael Davis, Roger Jinks, Alan J. Krause, W. Allen Marr, and William F. Brumund. We also wish to convey our sincere gratitude to Steve Kramer, the CCC liaison to the Organizing Committee of the GeoRisk 2011 Conference, and the

26、 ASCE/G-I staff especially Elaine Watson, Robert Schweinfurth, Sean Scully, Lauren Tighe and Helen Cook for their coordination and enthusiastic support to this conference. All of the submission activities of the papers for this conference were managed online by MIRA SMART and we wish to express our

27、thanks to Patrick Driscoll for his unceasing effort. The editors also wish to acknowledge the assistance of Ms. Kate Gunberg of Virginia Tech and Ms. Donna Dickert at ASCE Geo-Institute in the final production of this Geotechnical Special Publication. Editors C. Hsein Juang (Clemson University) Kok

28、Kwang Phoon (National University of Singapore) Anand J. Puppala (University of Texas at Arlington) Russell A. Green (Virginia Tech) Gordon A. Fenton (Dalhousie University) Acknowledgments List of Technical Session Organizers: Jose Andrade Ronald Andrus Laurie Baise Omer Bilgin Mohammed Gabr Edward G

29、lynn Russell Green Hongwei Huang Nick Hudyma Jeff Keaton Dianqing Li Zenon Medina-Cetina Shadi Najjar Anand Puppala Nadarajah Ravichandran Krishna R. Reddy Lance Roberts Adrian Rodriguez-Marek Marika Santagata Kallol Sett Mingjiang Tao Wang Yu Xiong Yu Lianyang Zhang Limin Zhang List of Paper Review

30、ers: Murad Abu-Farsakh Sami Akbas Linda Al Atik Tamara Al Bittar Jose Andrade Ron Andrus Marwan Aouad Chloe Arson Adda Athanasopoulos Muhunthan Balasingam Laurie Baise Paola Bandini Munwar Basha Dipanjan Basu Reza Behrou Michelle Bernhardt mer Bilgin Ross Boulanger Aaron Bradshaw Scott Brandenberg A

31、shly Cabas Michele Calvello Zijun Cao Jose Cepeda Ronald A. Chadderton Debanik Chaudhuri Jie-Ru Chen John Chen Qun Chen Yonggang Cheng Jianye Ching Bhaskar Chittoori Deepankar Choudhury Richard Coffman Brady Cox Don De Groot Juan Du Saba Esmailzadeh Luis Fargier-Gabaldon Du Feng Gordon A. Fenton Dam

32、on Fick Kevin Foster Kevin Foye Mo Gabr Sivapalan Gajan Patricia Gallagher Louis Ge Anthony Goh Russell A. Green Kathryn A. Gunberg Seungwoon Han Kianoosh Hatami Ahmed Hedayat Francisco Hernandez Dennis Hiltunen Roman Hryciw Austin Huang Fu-Kuo Huang Hongwei Huang Wen Chao Huang Nick Hudyma Magued I

33、skander Mark Jaksa Allen Jones C. Hsein Juang Ronnie Kamai Siddharth Khandelwal Yazen Khasawneh Arash Khosravifar William Kitch Harald Klammler Murali Krishna Kiseok Kwak Sam Lasley Christian Ledezma Jongwon (John) Lee Junhwan Lee Kyu Lee Steve Levorson Dianqing Li Jinhui Li Xu Li Nina Liu Yan Liu Z

34、hen Liu Barbara Luke Ronaldo Luna Antony Martin Zenon Medina-Cetina Paul Michaels Stanley Miller Anil Misra Nisha Mohanan Mohammad Mohseninfar Gonzalo Montalva Eugene Morgan Robb Moss Farrokh Nadim Shadi Najjar Arpita Nandi Soheil Nazarian Guney Olgun Thomas Oommen Jun Kyung Park Ming Peng Thomas Pe

35、nnington Marry Perlea Vlad Perlea Michael Perlow Jr Kok-Kwang Phoon Pouya Pishgah Gilani Widjojo Prakoso Monica Prezzi Anand Puppala Byron Quan Luna Marco Rannalli Nadarajah Ravichandran Lance Roberts Adrian Rodriguez-Marek J. David Rogers Michel Saad David Saftner Anastasia Santoso Jessee Scarborou

36、gh Brian Schleppi Bernd Schuppener Aniruddha Sengupta Kallol Sett Ajay Shara N. Shariatmadari Amit Shrivastava Raj Siddharthan Brian Simpson Ida Solhell Abdul-Hamid Soubra Dan Spikula Victor Taboada Nima Tafazzoli Junliang Tao Mingjiang Tao Eric Thompson Laura Tonni Fulvio Tonon Thalia Travassarou J

37、ohn Tripp Mesut Turel Thomas Tye Marco Uzielli Miranda Vanderpool Giovanna Vessia Jui-Pin Wang Yu Wang Joseph Wartman Lei Wei Andrea L. Welker Haijia Wen Yiping Wu Ryan Yan Shaoli Yang John Yao Negin Yousefpour Dalia Youssef Abdel Massih Xinbao Yu Xiong Yu Dimitrios Zekkos Ioannis E. Zevgolis Bin Zh

38、ang Gregg Zhang Jie Zhang Lianyang Zhang Limin Zhang Lulu Zhang Don Zhao Gongdan Zhou 1255064117129169178186193201209217Table of ContentsKeynote LecturesRisk of Limit-Equilibrium Failure of Long Earth Slopes: How It Depends on LengthErik VanmarckeDevelopment of a Risk-Based Landslide Warning SystemW

39、ilson H. Tang and L. M. ZhangUnresolved Problems in Geotechnical Risk and ReliabilityJohn T. Christian and Gregory B. BaecherLearning to Live with Geohazards: From Research to PracticeSuzanne Lacasse and Farrokh NadimGeo-Risks in the Business EnvironmentWilliam F. BrumundThe Practical Application of

40、 Risk Assessment to Dam SafetyGregg A. ScottCharacterization and Modeling of Variability of Soilsacross ScalesRandom Field Model Parameters for Columbia River SiltArmin W. StuedleinReliability-Based Design for Allowable Bearing Capacity by ConsideringDifferential Settlement on Highly Fractured Rock

41、MassesJianye Ching, Yu-Gang Hu, Zon-Yee Yang, and Jang-Quang ShiauAssessment of Levee Site Variability As a Function of the Number ofExplorationsChristopher B. Groves, Hollie L. Ellis, and N. Kyle TaborInfluence of Geotechnical Dataset on the Range of Influence of UndrainedShear StrengthSite Onyejek

42、we and Louis GeReliability Based Approach to Quantify Montmorillonite Mineral in ExpansiveClaysBhaskar Chittoori and Anand J. PuppalaProbabilistic/Simulation MethodsSubset Simulation and Its Application to a Spatially Random SoilAshraf Ahmed and Abdul-Hamid SoubraProbabilistic Analysis of Basal Heav

43、e in Deep Excavation225233240247255263271279287295303310Y. G. Tang and Gordon T. C. KungInfluence of the Scale of Fluctuation of the Friction Angle on the Face Stabilityof a Pressurized Tunnel in SandsM. Guilhem Mollon, Kok-Kwang Phoon, Daniel Dias, and Abdul-Hamid SoubraProbabilistic Finite Element

44、 Analysis of a Raft Foundation Supported by DrilledShafts in KarstD. V. Griffiths, D. Dotson, and J. HuangProbabilistic Slope Stability Analysis As a Supplement to a DeterministicStudyNishant Dayal, A. Rafael Prieto, J. Paul Lewis, and R. David SchererLiquefaction Probability by Probabilistic Versio

45、n of Robertson and WrideModelChih-Sheng Ku, C. Hsein Juang, Jianye Ching, and Der-Her LeeUncertainty ModelingDesign Criteria for the Differential Settlement of Landfill Foundations ModeledUsing Random FieldsK. C. Foye and X. ZhaoBayesian Updating of Load Settlement Curves for Footings on Cohesionles

46、sSoilShadi S. Najjar and Michel SaadStochastic vs. Deterministic Analysis of Consolidation Problem in NaturalAlluvial DepositsPouya Pishgah Gilani and Reza Jamshidi ChenariBearing Capacity of Strip Footings on Spatially Random Soils Using SparsePolynomial Chaos ExpansionTamara Al-Bittar and Abdul-Ha

47、mid SoubraSpatial Variability of Aperture in a Rough-Walled Crack in Surface SoilJ. H. Li, Z. F. Wang, and L. M. ZhangParameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Incorporating EngineeringJudgement by Bayesian InversionC. P. Lin and Y. C. HungEarthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics ISite Response

48、Effects on Partially Ergodic PSHAG. A. Montalva and A. Rodriguez-MarekA Case Study of Alternative Site Response Explanatory Variables in Parkfield,CaliforniaE. M. Thompson, L. G. Baise, Robert E. Kayen, Eugene C. Morgan, and James Kaklamanos318326336344352361371379387395403411420Estimating Repair Co

49、st and Downtime Due to Earthquake-Induced Damage atContainer PortsL. M. Ivey, G. J. Rix, S. D. Werner, and A. L. EreraEffect of Fabric Anisotropy on Seismic Response of Strip FoundationsBo Li, Xiangwu Zeng, and Hao YuSeismic Response of Reinforced Soil Retaining Walls: Is PGA-Based DesignAdequate?J. B. Varnier and K. HatamiPerformance Based Assessment of Dynamic Soil-Structure Interaction Effectson Seismic Response of Building FramesBehzad Fatahi, Hamid Reza Tabatabaiefar, and Bijan SamaliGeotechnical Assessme