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1、Successful Prediction of Product Performance Quality, Reliability, Durability, Safety, Maintainability, Life-Cycle Cost, Profit, and Other Components 6636_Book.indb 1 7/28/16 9:55 AMOther SAE books of interest: Automotive E/E/ Reliability By John Day (Product Code: T-126) Design and Reliability Fact

2、or By John Day (Product Code: PT-174) Automotive Electronics Reliability By Ronald Jurgen (Product Code: PT-144) Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability Guidebook By: Multiple authors from Government and Industry (Product Code: M-102/95) For more information or to order a book, contact SAE

3、International at 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA 15096-0001, USA; Phone: 1+877.606.7323 (U.S. and Canada only) or 1+724.776.4970 (outside U.S. and Canada); Fax: 1+724.776.0790; Email: CustomerServicesae.org Website: http:/ /books.sae.org 6636_Book.indb 2 7/28/16 9:55 AMSuccessful Prediction o

4、f Product Performance Quality, Reliability, Durability, Safety, Maintainability, Life-Cycle Cost, Profit, and Other Components Lev Klyatis Professor Emeritus Dr.-Ing. Habil., Dr. of Technical Sciences, Ph.D. Warrendale, Pennsylvania, USA 6636_Book.indb 3 7/28/16 9:55 AM Copyright 2016 SAE Internatio

5、nal eISBN: 978-0-7680-8312-5400 Commonwealth Drive Warrendale, PA 15096-0001 USA E-mail: CustomerServicesae.org Phone: +1 877.606.7323 (inside USA and Canada) +1 724.776.4970 (outside USA) Fax: +1 724.776.0790 Copyright 2016 SAE International. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be

6、reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, distributed, or trans- mitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of SAE International. For permission and licensing requests, contact SAE Permissions, 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA 15096-0001 USA; email: copyrightsae.o

7、rg; phone: 1+724.772.4028; fax: 1+724.772.9765. SAE Order Number R-448 http:/dx.doi.org/10.4271/r-448 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Klyatis, Lev M., author. Title: Successful prediction of automotive, aerospace, and commercial product performance : quality, reliability, d

8、urability, safety, maintainability, life cycle cost, profit, recalls, other / Lev Klyatis. Description: Warrendale, PA : SAE International, 2016 | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: LCCN 2016011600 | ISBN 9780768081763 Subjects: LCSH: Reliability (Engineering) | Service life (Engineer

9、ing) Classification: LCC TS173 .K6323 2016 | DDC 620/ .00452-dc23 LC record available at https:/lccn.loc.gov/2016011600 Information contained in this work has been obtained by SAE International from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither SAE International nor its authors guarantee the acc

10、uracy or completeness of any information published herein and neither SAE International nor its authors shall be responsible for any errors, omissions, or damages arising out of use of this informa- tion. This work is published with the understanding that SAE International and its authors are supply

11、ing information, but are not attempting to render engineering or other professional services. If such services are required, the assistance of an appropriate professional should be sought. ISBN-Print - 978-0-7680-8176-3 ISBN-PDF - 978-0-7680-8312-5 ISBN-epub - 978-0-7680-8314-9 ISBN-prc - 978-0-7680

12、-8313-2 To purchase bulk quantities, please contact SAE Customer Service: Email: CustomerServicesae.org Phone: 1+877.606.7323 (inside USA and Canada) 1+724.776.4970 (outside USA) Fax: 1+724.776.0790 Visit the SAE International Bookstore at books.sae.org 6636_Book.indb 4 7/28/16 9:55 AMDedication To

13、My Wife NELLYA KLYATIS 6636_Book.indb 5 7/28/16 9:55 AMLanguage Editor Brian Dodson 6636_Book.indb 6 7/28/16 9:55 AMvii Contents Preface .xi Introduction xv Current Situation with Recalls and Related Problems xvi Current Situation in Performance Prediction .xxi The History of Reliability Prediction

14、. xxiii References .xxvii Chapter 1: Terms and Definitions for Successful Prediction, Reliability, and Durability Testing.1 References 9 Chapter 2: Analysis of Current Approaches in Simulation and Testing.11 2.1 General . 12 2.2 Elements of History of Physical Simulation Development . 12 2.3 Physica

15、l Simulation of the Real-World Conditions. Current Testing 14 References . 26 Chapter 3: Methodological Aspects as the First Basic Component of Successful Prediction of Product Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

16、 29 3.1 Introduction . 29 3.2 Common Principles of Successful Performance Prediction . 33 3.3 Common Criteria for Successful Prediction of Product Performance Components . 34 3.4 Methodology for Selecting Representative Input Regions for Accurate Simulation of Real-World Conditions . 43 3.5 Aspects

17、of Successful Prediction of Products Performance By Taking Into Account Coefficients of Recalculation that Depend On Manufacturing Technology Factors and Usage Conditions . 49 3.6 Building a Specific Type of Influence Function for Reliability and Maintainability Prediction . 52 3.7 Basic Methodologi

18、cal Aspects of Quality Prediction . 57 3.8 System Reliability Prediction from Testing Results of the Components . 60 3.9 Durability Prediction with Consideration of Expenses and Losses 61 3.10 Prediction of the Products Spare Parts 66 6636_Book.indb 7 7/28/16 9:55 AMviii Contents 3.11 Basic Aspects

19、of Safety and Human Factors Simulation, Their Prediction Methodology, and Risk Components 69 3.12 Successful Prediction of Some Financial Components of Performance (LCC, Profit, and Recalls) 69 3.13 Conclusions . 75 References . 76 Chapter 4: Basic Aspects of Accelerated Reliability/Durability Testi

20、ng as the Second Basic Component of Successful Prediction of Product Performance. 81 4.1 Introduction . 81 4.2 The Basic Concepts of the Strategy for Development of Accurate Physical Simulation of Real-World Conditions and ART/ADT . 84 4.3 The Principles of System of Control for Physical Simulation

21、of Random Input Influences . 98 4.4 Trends in the Development of ART/ADT . 105 References . 110 Chapter 5: Integrated Equipment for Physical Simulation of Interacted Real-World Conditions . 113 5.1 Introduction . 113 5.2 Combined Testing Equipment . 114 5.3 Equipment for Accelerated Reliability and

22、Durability Testing . 136 5.4 The Mechanisms for Control of Simulation of the Real-World Random Input Influences 145 References 154 Chapter 6: Financial Considerations, Use of the Authors Approach, and Some Published Reviews to the Authors Previous Books 157 6.1 Financial Considerations . 158 Referen

23、ces 163 6.2 Use of the Authors Approach (Publications) 163 6.3 Some Published Reviews to Authors Previous Books 171 Chapter 7: Improving the Standardization of Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing 177 7.1 Current Situation . 177 7.2 Standards in Combined Testing . 178 7.3 Standards in Reli

24、ability Testing . 185 7.4 SAE International Standards in Reliability Testing . 187 References 206 6636_Book.indb 8 7/28/16 9:55 AMix Contents Chapter 8: Improvement in Engineering Culture for Successful Prediction 209 References.222 Index.223 About the Author.229 6636_Book.indb 9 7/28/16 9:55 AM6636

25、_Book.indb 10 7/28/16 9:55 AMxi Preface This book is solely based on scientific and technical aspects of successful prediction product performance. There are many recent publications concerning automotive and other product recalls and related technical and economic problems that prompt me to write t

26、his book. Mostly, these publications concentrate on safety issues that are related to a products quality, reli- ability, and durability, that in turn affect economic problems and peoples lives. In fact, the above information is not a cause for recalls, but merely the result. The cause of these recal

27、ls is actually the inefficient or inadequate prediction of product safety and reliability and other performance components during the design and manu- facturing processes. Therefore, safety issues and other problems are the result. This is one of the basic reasons for the issues outlined above. For

28、many years, the author has been working on a discipline called “successful predic- tion of product performance” (or product efficiency). This discipline seeks to solve the problems affecting successful prediction of product performance during its service life. Performance consists of the following i

29、nteracting components: safety, quality, reliability, durability, maintainability, recalls, profit, life-cycle cost, and others. People need predic- tion capabilities in different areas of their personal lives, as well as in their professional activity. Such capabilities are also related to professio

30、nals who are involved in research, design, manufacturing, marketing, finance, sales, management, teaching, and other areas, because they need to know how to access the results of their current work in the real world for an extended period of time. Prediction, especially successful prediction, is com

31、plicated. Therefore, often people simplify it using the word “planning” when they are thinking about the future of different aspects of their current activity. Prediction is an inalienable component of technology development and it is useful when it is successful. There are no published books on suc

32、cessful prediction of industrial product performance. There are books only on reliability prediction, where reliability is considered as a separate component, without interaction with other performance compo- nents. But industrial engineers and managers, as well as teachers, students, consultants, a

33、nd other professionals, need a book, where, as in the real world, reliability interacts with other performance components: both technical and economic. The basic benefit of this book is that this is the first to delve into the topic of successful prediction of industrial product performance, which i

34、s based on a consideration in one complex integration methodology and source for successful implementation of this methodology. 6636_Book.indb 11 7/28/16 9:55 AMxii Preface Therefore, the focus of this book is on the technology (methodology and equipment) of successful practical prediction of produc

35、t performance. As a result, there will be an improved understanding of recalls, leading to a solution to many reliability, durability, maintainability, and cost problems. This book is based on a new approach to prediction, which consists of two basic components: Methodology of prediction, which refl

36、ects common principles of changing parameters of the products performance components during the service life in the real world, and Obtaining accurate initial information on how to change the above parameters for specific models of the product during its service life (or warranty period). These incl

37、ude improving the engineering culture for successful prediction, the method- ological aspects of prediction performance, the basic aspects of accurate physical simu- lation and accelerated reliability and durability testing as an effective source of initial information for this prediction, integrate

38、d equipment for accurate physical simulation of interacting real-world conditions of the natural product, prediction system variability as a function of input variability, engineering risk versus time and cost, improving stan- dardization of accelerated reliability and durability testing, and terms

39、and definitions in successful prediction and reliability / durability testing. The role of testing level as a source of accurate initial information in the above solu- tions is a decisive factor. But misunderstanding of the current testing role and defini- tions can lead to poor quality, reliability

40、, durability, life-cycle cost, profit, and other issues. Therefore, the author considers solutions to these problems and shows advanced test methods and equipment as key factors for successful prediction of industrial product performance. This work covers new ideas and technologies for the predictio

41、n mentioned above, which are based on dozens of patents. Especially important is to consider field condi- tions such as the influence of interactions of all real-world inputs, safety problems, and human factors. If one ignores these interactions, then one cannot accurately represent the real-world s

42、ituation, and cannot prevent causes of recalls, lower profit, and other engi- neering and economic problems for both producers and consumers. As demonstrated by published reviews to previous authors books, most current publications concentrate on the theoretical aspects of predicting methodology, da

43、ta analysis, test plans, and statistics. Designers, industrial engineers, test engineers, reliability and durability engineers, professionals who are involved in safety and human problems, engineering and economic managers, researchers, teachers, students, and personnel in the service area, maintena

44、nce area, and many others need to know how specific industrial companies can correctly perform successful prediction. This book is useful not only for engineering, but also for other areas of peoples activity. This book will help professionals: 6636_Book.indb 12 7/28/16 9:55 AMxiii Preface 1. Who ar

45、e involved in research and design processes: Have minimum risk in research and new design process Reduce cost and time for these processes Successfully predict new product performance Provide accelerated reliability/durability testing Better understand what kind of testing equipment is useful for a

46、successful prediction of product performance Improve the control system with suppliers Decrease time and cost, during manufacturing and usage, for increased safety More accurately predict the propagation of error in inputs, allowing tolerances to be better understood and designed to meet the needs o

47、f manufacturers and suppliers as well as product design 2. Who are involved in the manufacturing process: Reduce change in the manufacturing technology during production Increase quality assurance, control, and audit processes to be sure that the quality of the product will not be less than that pla

48、nned for long time period 3. Who are involved in usage process: Dramatically decrease time and cost for maintenance and repair Dramatically decrease the cost of usage Decrease safety problems by reducing the causes of safety incidents 4. Companies that design, produce, and use: Improve their reputat

49、ion and general economic situation in the market Increase the companys profit through a reduction in recalls, complaints, and other returns Develop connections between producers of whole product with this product companies-suppliers, especially in quality and safety areas. 5. Teachers, students, and consultants: Teach and study how companies and employees can improve their economic situation through successful prediction of industrial product performance Teach and study how one can increase the companys profit and decrease servi