ASCE MOP 81-2016 Guidelines for Cloud Seeding to Augment Precipitation (Third Edition).pdf

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1、Third EditionGuidelines for Cloud Seeding to Augment Precipitation ASCE Manuals and Reports on Engineering Practice No. 81EditEd byConrad G. Keyes Jr., George W. Bomar, Thomas P. DeFelice, Don A. Griffith, and Darin W. LangerudASCE Manuals and Reports on Engineering Practice No. 81Guidelines for Clo

2、udSeeding to AugmentPrecipitationThird EditionEdited byConrad G. Keyes Jr.George W. BomarThomas P. DeFeliceDon A. GrifthDarin W. LangerudSponsored by theAtmospheric Water Management Standards Committee ofthe Standards Development Council of theEnvironmental and Water Resources Institute of theAmeric

3、an Society of Civil EngineersPublished by the American Society of Civil EngineersLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataNames: Keyes, Conrad G., editor. | Environmental and Water Resources Institute (U.S.).Atmospheric Water Management Standards Committee.Title: Guidelines for cloud seedin

4、g to augment precipitation / edited by Conrad G. Keyes, Jr.and four others ; sponsored by the Atmospheric Water ManagementStandards Committeeof the Standards Development Council of the Environmental and Water Resources Instituteof the American Society of Civil Engineers.Description: Third edition. |

5、 Reston, Virginia : Published by the American Society of CivilEngineers, 2016 | Series: ASCE manuals and reports on engineering practice ; no. 81 |Includes bibliographical references and index.Identiers: LCCN 2015023957 | ISBN 9780784414118 (print: alk. paper) |ISBN 9780784479339 (pdf)Subjects: LCSH

6、: Rain-makingUnited StatesHandbooks, manuals, etc. | Precipitation(Meteorology)ModicationUnited StatesHandbooks, manuals, etc.Classication: LCC QC928.7. G85 2016 | DDC 551.68/76dc23LC record available at http:/lccn.loc.gov/2015023957Published by American Society of Civil Engineers1801 Alexander Bell

7、 DriveReston, Virginia, 20191-4382www.asce.org/bookstore | ascelibrary.orgAny statements expressed in these materials are those of the individual authors and do notnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofASCE,whichtakesnoresponsibilityforanystatementmadeherein. No reference made in this publication to any spe

8、cic method, product, process, orserviceconstitutesorimpliesanendorsement,recommendation,orwarrantythereofbyASCE.The materials are for general information only and do not represent a standard of ASCE, norare they intended as a reference in purchase specications, contracts, regulations, statutes, oran

9、y other legal document. ASCE makes no representation or warranty of any kind, whetherexpress or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or utility of anyinformation, apparatus, product, or process discussed in this publication, and assumes noliabilitytherefor.Theinformationconta

10、inedinthesematerialsshouldnotbeusedwithoutrstsecuringcompetent advicewithrespect toits suitabilityfor anygeneral orspecic application.Anyone utilizing such information assumes all liability arising from such use, including butnot limited to infringement of any patent or patents.ASCE and American Soc

11、iety of Civil EngineersRegistered in U.S. Patent and TrademarkOfce.Photocopies and permissions. Permission to photocopy or reproduce material from ASCEpublications can be requested by sending an e-mail to permissionsasce.org or by locatinga title in ASCEs Civil Engineering Database (http:/cedb.asce.

12、org) or ASCE Library (http:/ascelibrary.org) and using the “Permissions” link.Errata: Errata, if any, can be found at http:/dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784414118.Copyright 2016 by the American Society of Civil Engineers.All Rights Reserved.ISBN 978-0-7844-1411-8 (print)ISBN 978-0-7844-7933-9 (PDF)Manufac

13、tured in the United States of America.20 19 18 17 16 1 2 3 4 5Front cover: Bruce A. Boe, Weather Modication, Inc.MANUALS AND REPORTS ONENGINEERING PRACTICE(As developed by the ASCE Technical Procedures Committee, July 1930,and revised March 1935, February 1962, and April 1982)A manual or report in t

14、his series consists of an orderly presentation offacts on a particular subject, supplemented by an analysis of limitationsand applications ofthese facts.It contains information useful tothe averageengineer in his or her everyday work, rather than ndings that may beuseful only occasionally or rarely.

15、 It is not in any sense a “standard,”however; nor is it so elementary or so conclusive as to provide a “rule ofthumb” for nonengineers.Furthermore, material in this series, in distinction from a paper (whichexpresses only one persons observations or opinions), is the work of acommittee or group sele

16、cted to assemble and express information on aspecic topic. As often as practicable the committee is under the directionof one or more of the Technical Divisions and Councils, and the productevolved has been subjected to review by the Executive Committee of theDivision or Council. As a step in the pr

17、ocess of this review, proposedmanuscripts are often brought before the members of the Technical Divi-sions and Councils for comment, which may serve as the basis forimprovement. When published, each work shows the names of the com-mittees by which it was compiled and indicates clearly the several pr

18、o-cesses through which it has passed in review, so that its merit may bedenitely understood.In February 1962 (and revised in April 1982), the Board of Directionvoted to establish a series titled “Manuals and Reports on EngineeringPractice,” to include the Manuals published and authorized to date, fu

19、tureManuals of Professional Practice, and Reports on Engineering Practice. Allsuch Manual or Report material of the Society would have been refereed ina manner approved by the Board Committee on Publications and would bebound, with applicable discussion, in books similar to past Manuals.Numbering wo

20、uld be consecutive and would be a continuation of presentManual numbers. In some cases of joint committee reports, bypassing ofJournal publications may be authorized.A list of available Manuals of Practice can be found at http:/www.asce.org/bookstore.This page intentionally left blankCONTENTSPREFACE

21、 viiDEDICATION. ix1. INTRODUCTION AND BRIEF SUMMARY 1Thomas P. DeFelice and Conrad G. Keyes Jr.1.1 Why Seed Clouds?. 21.2 Approaches and Restrictions to Seeding Clouds. 31.3 Scientic Basis for Cloud Seeding. 41.4 The Conduct of Cloud Seeding Operations 51.5 How to Initiate a Cloud Seeding Project. 7

22、1.6 Conclusions. 81.7 References 82. SOCIETAL, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND ECONOMICASPECTS. 11Conrad G. Keyes Jr.2.1 Introduction 112.2 Societal Aspects 112.3 Environmental Aspects. 202.4 Economic Aspects 302.5 Conclusions. 442.6 References 453. LEGAL ASPECTS OF WEATHER MODIFICATIONOPERATIONS 53George W. Bom

23、ar3.1 Introduction 533.2 Preoperational Planning 553.3 Conducting Operations. 643.4 Evaluating Operations. 65v3.5 Conclusions. 703.6 References 714. THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS. 75Thomas P. DeFelice and Robert Czys4.1 Introduction 754.2 The Natural Production of Precipitation . 764.3 Cloud Seeding to Augme

24、nt Rainfall 804.4 The Natural Production of Snow 864.5 Cloud Seeding to Augment Snowfall. 874.6 Technological Advances . 904.7 Conclusions. 904.8 References 915. CLOUD SEEDING MODES, INSTRUMENTATION, ANDSTATUS OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENTTECHNOLOGY 97Don A. Grifth5.1 Introduction 975.2 Cloud Seeding

25、 Modes. 985.3 Instrumentation and Atmospheric Models 1225.4 Status of Precipitation Enhancement Technology 1445.5 Conclusions. 1545.6 References 1556. HOW TO IMPLEMENT A CLOUD SEEDING PROGRAM. 163Darin W. Langerud, Bruce A. Boe, and Conrad G. Keyes Jr.6.1 Introduction 1636.2 Needs and Goals 1666.3 T

26、he Feasibility Study. 1676.4 Program Design 1746.5 Program Control 1836.6 Program Management. 1896.7 References 1907. GLOSSARY. 195INDEX. 207vi CONTENTSPREFACETraditional water resources management pertains to making reasonable useof available water and desalinization and to minimizing loss because

27、of oods.Atmospheric water management provides a cost-effective means for augment-ing available water and reducing damage during meteorological events.In many areas of the United States and the world, a need existes for newwater supplies. These updated guidelines are intended to provide waterresource

28、s managers and others with information and references that theywill need for decision making regarding the use of cloud seeding toaugment available water supplies.This manual incorporates pertinent background on the science andpractice of weather modication by cloud seeding to augment precipita-tion

29、. Legal, social, environmental, and economic factors motivating andlimiting operational cloud seeding are reviewed. The technologies, instru-mentation, and procedures needed to implement a cloud seeding programare described. This is all intended to give water resources managers thebroad spectrum and

30、 practical details of what is involved in utilizing cloudseeding (atmospheric water management) technology.The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Weather ModicationCommittee (19601985) and the Climate and Weather Change Committee(19851996) were fortunate enough to bring together experts in t

31、he weathermodication eld and have them devote a great amount of uncompensatedvolunteer time to write the rst versions of this valuable document. The 1982Weather Modication Committee, the 1993 Climate and Weather ChangeCommittee,andthe1982and1994ExecutiveCommitteesoftheIrrigationandDrainage Division

32、are to be commended for their thorough and helpfulreview of the rstdocumentthatwaspublishedintheASCEJournalofIrrigation and Drainage Engineering in March 1983, pp. 111182 (partswritten by Paul C. Summers: Foreword; Robert D. Elliott: Summary; OlinH. Foehner, Jr.: SEE Issues; Ray Jay Davis: Legal Asp

33、ects; Lewis O. Grant:viiScienticBasis;DonA.Grifth: Modes and Instrumentation; andConrad G. Keyes Jr.: How to Implement).The original task committee appreciated the extensive technical editingof each section of the manual by the personnel of OPHIR Corporation. TheConsortium of Atmospheric Resources D

34、evelopment provided funds forthe review of the rst version of this manual, and the North AmericanInterstate Weather Modication Council provided funds for travel to ameeting of the 19921993 Task Committee involved in the revision of the1983 guidelines published by ASCE.The 1995 manual was authored by

35、 the following individuals (by sec-tion): (1) Robert D. Elliott, Conrad G. Keyes Jr., and Roger F. Reinking;(2) Roger F. Reinking, Neil H. Berg, Barbara C. Farhar, and Olin H.Foehner, Jr.; (3) Ray Jay Davis; (4) Lewis O. Grant, Harold D. Orville,Marcia Politovich, Roger F. Reinking, David Rogers, an

36、d Joseph Warbur-ton; (5) Don A. Grifth, Marcia Politovich, James H. Renick, David W.Reynolds, and David Rogers; and (6) Conrad G. Keyes Jr., Joseph A.Warburton, and James H. Renick. Most of these individuals were involvedwith the Climate and Weather Change Committee of the Irrigation andDrainage Div

37、ision of Management Group D of ASCE.The 2006 manual was authored by the following individuals (by section):(1) Thomas P. DeFelice and Conrad G. Keyes Jr.; (2) Conrad G Keyes, Jr.;(3) George W. Bomar; (4) Robert Czys, Thomas DeFelice, and Don A. Grifth;(5) Don A. Grifth; and (6) Bruce A. Boe and Conr

38、ad G. Keyes Jr. Most ofthese individuals have been long-standing members and/or ofcers of theWeather Modication Association. The nalreviewersfromtheBlueRibbonReview Panel for the EWRI Standards Development Council included DarinW.Langerud,PaulL.Smith,MarkE.Solak,andWilliamL.Woodley.This current edit

39、ion or revision of the manual was produced by thoselisted within each chapter and approved for publication by a majority ofthe Atmospheric Water Management (AWM) Standards Committee (SC).The editors from the EWRI Revision of Manual 81 Subcommittee are ChiefEditor Conrad G. Keyes Jr. and Coeditors Ge

40、orge W. Bomar, Thomas P.DeFelice, Don A. Grifth, and Darin W. Langerud. Other authors onchapters include Robert Czys and Bruce A. Boe (both were lead authorsin 2006). The other subcommittee reviewers from the AWM SC and/or theWeather Modication Association include Joseph H. Golden, Maurice D.Roos, a

41、nd Paul Smith. The nal reviewers of all chapters from the BlueRibbon Review Panel for the EWRI Standards Development Council (SDC)include Duncan Axisa of NCAR, Mark Schneider of NDARB, and Mark E.Solak of NAWC. Some members of the AWM SC had additionalnal inputon the draft chapters before all work w

42、as provided to the Chair (BenWillardson) of the EWRI SDC for approval for publication by ASCE.Conrad G. Keyes Jr., ScD, P.E., P.S., D.WRE, WMA CM, Dist.M.ASCE,F.NSPEEmeritus Professor and Department Head, New Mexico State Universityviii PREFACEDEDICATIONThis manual is dedicated to many of the origin

43、al coauthors of the 1983and/or 1995 versions of the guidelines. These individuals made signicantcontributions to the “cloud seeding to augment precipitation” communityduring the many years of their professional lives and served ASCE asdedicated volunteers during many years of the development and pub

44、lica-tion of this subject.RAY JAY DAVIS passed away August 10, 2000, at his home in Provo, UT.RayreceivedaB.A.fromIdahoStateUniversityin1948,aJ.D.fromHarvardLaw School in 1953, and an L.L.M. from Columbia Law School in 1956.An academician throughout his 45-year legal career, Ray Jay was aProfessor o

45、f Law at Brigham Young University from 1979 until his retire-ment in April 2000. He also taught law at the University of Arizona(17 years), Temple University, and the University of Arkansas.His research career was primarily devoted to studying and writingabout the legal rules that govern, or should

46、govern, the appropriation anduse of water, particularly water contained in the earths atmosphere. HeservedaschairforamonumentalprojectundertakenbyASCEtoproduceamodel state water code to be transmitted to all 50 state legislatures with arecommendation for adoption and to be published abroad as a law

47、reformsource in foreign countries. He was also the author of the legal section ofrst edition of ASCE Manual 81 and the initial version of the guidelines in1983.Rayservedasthechair,amember,aprincipalinvestigator,oranadvisorto countless committees to governmental agencies of different states and toage

48、ncies of the federal government. He represented the United States at theUnited Nations Conference on International Legal Principles for WeatherModication. He made presentations at conferences in foreign countriesand served as an advisor on the legal ramications of cloud seeding to ninewestern and mi

49、dwestern states. Some of his writings have been translatedixinto French, Russian, and Spanish. A prominent legal treatise states,“Professor Ray Davis is the leading gure on weather modication law”(Robert Beck, Water and Water Rights, Vol. 2 Section 3.04a). His resumelists a total of 193 published items, including nine books and 20 chapters inbooks and treatises.He was especially proud of authoring the Arizona Workers CompensationHandbook, the draft Model State Water Allocation Code and the textbook Lawin Action: American Go