ASCE GSP 285-2017 GEOTECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT.pdf

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1、GEOTECHNICAL SPECIAL PUBLICATION NO. 285 GEO-RISK 2017 GEOTECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT SELECTED PAPERS FROM SESSIONS OF GEO-RISK 2017 June 47, 2017 Denver, Colorado SPONSORED BY Geo-Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers EDITED BY Jinsong Huang, Ph.D. Gordon A. Fenton, Ph.D

2、., P.Eng. Limin Zhang, Ph.D. D. V. Griffiths, Ph.D., P.E., D.GE Published by the American Society of Civil Engineers Published by American Society of Civil Engineers 1801 Alexander Bell Drive Reston, Virginia, 20191-4382 www.asce.org/publications | ascelibrary.org Any statements expressed in these m

3、aterials are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the views of ASCE, which takes no responsibility for any statement made herein. No reference made in this publication to any specific method, product, process, or service constitutes or implies an endorsement, recommendati

4、on, or warranty thereof by ASCE. The materials are for general information only and do not represent a standard of ASCE, nor are they intended as a reference in purchase specifications, contracts, regulations, statutes, or any other legal document. ASCE makes no representation or warranty of any kin

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7、tent and Trademark Office. Photocopies and permissions. Permission to photocopy or reproduce material from ASCE publications can be requested by sending an e-mail to permissionsasce.org or by locating a title in ASCEs Civil Engineering Database (http:/cedb.asce.org) or ASCE Library (http:/ascelibrar

8、y.org) and using the “Permissions” link. Errata: Errata, if any, can be found at https:/doi.org/10.1061/9780784480724 Copyright 2017 by the American Society of Civil Engineers. All Rights Reserved. ISBN 978-0-7844-8072-4 (PDF) Manufactured in the United States of America. Preface Interest and use of

9、 probabilistic methods and risk assessment tools in geotechnical engineering has grown rapidly in recent years. The natural variability of soil and rock properties, combined with a frequent lack of high quality site data, makes a probabilistic approach to geotechnical design a logical and scientific

10、 way of managing both technical and economic risk. The burgeoning field of geotechnical risk assessment is evidenced by numerous publications, textbooks, dedicated journals and sessions at general geotechnical conferences. Risk assessments are increasingly becoming a requirement in many large engine

11、ering construction projects. Probabilistic methods are also recognized in design codes as a way of delivering reasonable load and resistance factors (LRFD) to target allowable risk levels in geotechnical design. This Geotechnical Special Publication (GSP), coming out of the Geo-Risk 2017 specialty c

12、onference held in Denver, Colorado from June 4-7, 2017, presents contributions in sessions: 1) Advances in the Applications of Theory and Practice of Statistics and Probability in Geoengineering, 2) Bayesian Updating for Geotechnical Applications, 3) Risk Assessment of Tunneling, 4) Risk Assessment

13、and Management of Dams, and 5) Seismic Risk Assessment. These contributions to Geotechnical risk assessment and management are very timely, and will provide a valuable and lasting reference for practitioners and academics alike. The editors would like to thank all of the members of ASCE Geo Institut

14、es Technical Committee on Risk Assessment and Management and the Engineering Practice of Risk Assessment and Management Committee (TC304) of the International Society of Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ISSMGE) for their ongoing support. All the papers in this GSP went through a rigorous

15、 review process. The contributions of the reviewers are much appreciated. The Editors Jinsong Huang, Ph.D., M.ASCE, University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia Gordon A. Fenton, Ph.D., P.Eng., FEIC, FCAE, M.ASCE, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Limin Zhang, Ph.D., F.ASCE, Hong Kong University of S

16、cience and Technology, PR China D.V. Griffiths, Ph.D., P.E., D.GE, F.ASCE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 285 iii ASCE Acknowledgments The following individuals deserve special acknowledgment and recognition for their efforts in making this conference a success Conferenc

17、e Chair: D.V. Griffiths, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado, USA Conference Co-Chair: Gordon A. Fenton, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Technical Program Chair: Jinsong Huang, University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia Short-Courses: Limin Zhang, Hong Kong University of Science and Techno

18、logy Student Program co-Chairs: Zhe Luo, University of Akron; Jack Montgomery, Auburn University Sponsorships and Exhibits Chair: Armin Stuedlein, Oregon State University The Editors greatly appreciate the work of Ms. Helen Cook, Ms. Leanne Shroeder, Ms. Brandi Steeves, and Mr. Drew Caracciolo of th

19、e ASCE Geo-Institute for their administration of many important conference organizational issues, including management of the on-line paper submissions, the conference web site and sponsorship. Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 285 iv ASCEContents Advances in the Applications of Theory and Practice of Statistics an

20、d Probability in Geoengineering Bayesian Probabilistic Asset Management Protocol for Infrastructure Systems: Example Application to a Flood Protection System 1 Anand V. Govindasamy, W. Allen Marr, Rickey P. Brouillette, and John T. Christian Characterizing Unknown Trend Using Sparse Bayesian Learnin

21、g . 22 Jianye Ching and Kok-Kwang Phoon Efficient Estimation of Spatial Varied Soil Properties Based on Field Pore Water Pressure Responses in a Slope . 32 H. Q. Yang and L. L. Zhang How Subjective Are Geotechnical Reliability Estimates? 42 Iason Papaioannou and Daniel Straub Integrating Multi-Sourc

22、e Information from Site Investigation for Probabilistic Characterization of Undrained Shear Strength 52 Meng-Yao Shen, Zi-Jun Cao, Dian-Qing Li, and Yu Wang Obtaining 2-D High-Resolution Cone Tip Resistance Fields 62 Dong Zheng, Jinsong Huang, and Dianqing Li Probabilistic Calibration of a Modified

23、Van der Poel Model Representing the Viscoelastic Behavior of Sandstone . 69 Yichuan Zhu, Lu Cong, Xinli Hu, and Zenon Medina-Cetina Probabilistic Characterization of Site-Specific Correlation between Geotechnical Parameters Using Limited Site Observation Data . 81 Adeyemi Emman Aladejare, Oluwatosin

24、 Victor Akeju, and Yu Wang Reliability Analysis of Geosynthetic Reinforced Soil Walls . 91 Lei Wang, Michael Powers, and Wenping Gong Reliability-Based Framework for Designing Test Programs for Piles 101 Shadi Najjar, George Saad, and Youmna Abdallah Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 285 v ASCERisk Assessment for L

25、andslides Using Bayesian Networks and Remote Sensing Data 113 Patricia Varela Gonzlez and Zenon Medina-Cetina Geohazards Assessing the Implications of Sand Boils for Backward Erosion Piping Risk . 124 Jeffrey A. Schaefer, Timothy M. OLeary, and Bryant A. Robbins Internal Erosion Mechanics and Risk E

26、stimation Based on ICOLD Bulletin 164 137 Rodney Bridle On the Physical Meaning of Dam Safety Risk Estimates 147 Dom Galic Operational Safety of Dams and Hydropower Installations . 158 Romanas Ascila, Desmond N. D. Hartford, and P. Andy Zielinski Reassessment of Dam Safety Using Bayesian Network . 1

27、68 Z. Q. Liu, F. Nadim, U. K. Eidsvig, and S. Lacasse Reliability Analysis of Tailings Dams: A Case Study in Jiangxi Province, China 178 Xiao Liu, Weida Ni, Lei Huang, Qingbing Liu, and Junwei Ma Reliability Approach on Internal Erosion Risk Assessment of Earth Dam and Levee 188 Sangho Lee and Samue

28、l Lee Risk Assessment for Contaminated Sites: Analytical Models and Field Measurements of Vapor Emissions from Soil 198 Marta Di Sante, Francesco Mazzieri, Evelina Fratalocchi, and Erio Pasqualini Simplified Length-Effect for Risk Assessment of Internal Erosion Moose Creek Dam, Alaska . 209 Kevin S.

29、 Richards, Chun-Yi Kuo, Rick B. Hockett, Troy S. ONeal, and Robert C. Patev Development of Uncertainty Methodologies and Analysis Using Logic Trees for Levee Risk Assessments . 223 Robert C. Patev, Adiel Komey, and Gregory B. Baecher Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 285 vi ASCETwenty Years of Dam Safety Risk Analy

30、sis and Risk Management Practice at the Bureau of Reclamation . 234 Karen A. Knight Practice of Risk Assessment and Management Assessing Risk through Monitoring Ground Anchors Using State of the Art Sensors 243 Shahid Islam and Lucian Bogdan Blasting, Drilling Soil Nails, and Excavating Adjacent to

31、Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines-Risk Assessment and Design/Construction Approach-Case History 255 Scott G. Newhouse, Wayne Bergstrom, and Maria Lobo Choke Canyon Dam Mineral Extraction Risk Analysis . 269 Jeanne Major and Mark Vandeberg Communication and Management of Geotechnical Risks to Transp

32、ortation Performance Objectives . 279 Scott A. Anderson, Mark J. Vessely, and Ty Ortiz Geotechnical Risk Assessments for Tunneling/Underground Projects . 291 Steve Klein and Joe OCarroll How Safe is the “Factor of Safety” Concept in Geotechnical Practice? 302 Bar Trak Risk Analysis of Subway Shield

33、Tunneling 309 Le Cao and Michael Kalinski Risk Assessment of Void behind the Lining Based on Numerical Analysis and ANN . 320 Rui Yang and Yadong Xue Risk Comprehensive Assessment of Shield Tunnel Construction Based on Cloud Theory 334 Helin Fu, Zhen Huang, and Jiabing Zhang Risk Determination for T

34、unnels and Other Networked Infrastructure 346 H. H. Einstein, M. Al Kaabi, H. C. M. Chan, A. Costa, J.-P. Dudt, Ch. Haas, C. Indermitte, K. Karam, Ch. Kollarou, C. Marzer, S. Min, S. Ritter, R. L. Sousa, and K. Yost Risk in the GeosphereThe Problem of Probability 368 Alan K. Kuhn Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 2

35、85 vii ASCERisk Management for the Mishawaka 7,000 Foot Long Term Control Plan Tunnel . 377 Gregg Sherry, Sarah Myers, and Gary West Risk Management on Water Infrastructure Tunnel ProjectsDC Clean Rivers Project Case History . 388 George Teetes, Matt Koziol, and Norman Perez Geotechnical Fragility A

36、nalysis for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment . 399 Erdem O. Tastan Influence of Wall Flexibility on Seismic Earth Pressures in Vertically Homogeneous Soil . 412 Scott J. Brandenberg, Jonathan P. Stewart, and George E. Mylonakis Reliability Analysis of Buried Pipes with Corrosion and Seismic Imp

37、act 424 Andrew Utomi Ebenuwa and Kong Fah Tee Seismic Risk Evaluation with Specific Direction for Natural Slopes over a Wide Area 434 Masahiro Shinoda and Yoshihisa Miyata Seismic Settlement of Shallow-Founded Structures on Liquefiable Ground 444 Zana Karimi, Zach Bullock, Shideh Dashti, Abbie Liel,

38、 and Keith Porter Uncertainty Relating to Geotechnical Properties, Models, and Testing Methods A Risk Assessment System for Hard Rock TBM Selection Based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) . 454 Feng Zhao, Yadong Xue, Yanjie Li, and Hanxiang Zhao Bearing Capacity Assessment of a Shallow Foundation on

39、 a Two-Layered Soil Using the Random Finite Element Method . 468 . Zaskrski, W. Pu a, and D. V. Griffiths CPT-Based Random Field Model Parameters for Liquefiable Silty Sands 478 Taeho Bong and Armin W. Stuedlein Effect of Model Uncertainty on Probabilistic Characterization of Soil Property . 488 Ten

40、gyuan Zhao and Yu Wang Effects of Climate Change on Fragility Curves of Earthen Levees Subjected to Extreme Precipitations . 498 Firas H. Jasim, Farshid Vahedifard, Elisa Ragno, Amir AghaKouchak, and Ghada Ellithy Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 285 viii ASCEEmpirically Estimating Tunneling-Induced Settlement of

41、Pipelines Considering Uncertainty of Soil Properties . 508 Xiangnan Zhou, Fang Liu, Huaning Wang, Mingjing Jiang, and Zhongyi Chen Evaluation of Statistical Estimation Error in an Embankment Stability Problem 519 Yusuke Honjo and Yu Otake Geostatistical Analysis for Identifying Weak Soil Layers in D

42、ikes 529 S. Nishimura, T. Shibata, T. Shuku, and K. Imaide Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater-Radionuclide Transport Model from Near Surface Disposal Facilities . 539 K. Geetha Manjari and G. L. Sivakumar Babu Laterally Loaded Pile Behaviors in Clay with Uncertainty in Strain 50 . 549 Namhon

43、g Min and Jeong-Yun Won Probabilistic Lateral Spread Evaluation for Long, Linear Infrastructure Using Performance-Based Reference Parameter Maps 559 Kevin W. Franke, T. Leslie Youd, Levi T. Ekstrom, and Jingwen He Probabilistic Punch-Through Distance for a Spudcan Penetrating Sand-over-Clay . 569 Fu

44、ming Yang, Jinhui Li, Mark J. Cassidy, and Pan Hu Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Anchored Slope 578 Takashi Hara, Akira Tomioka, Nobuyuki Soga, and Atsushi Yashima Reliability Analysis of Shallow Foundations on Unsaturated Soils under Rainfall Infiltration 588 Xiao-hui Tan, Yan Xie, Xiao-liang H

45、ou, Peng Li, and Xue Wang Reliability Analysis of TAMU-POST a Tool for Analysis of Vehicle Impact on In-Line Pile Group . 598 Mojdeh Asadollahi Pajouh and Jean-Louis Briaud Reliability of Levees against Seepage Failure Considering Uncertainties of Soil Properties and Occurrence of Maximum Floodway W

46、ater Level 609 Makoto Suzuki, Yasuyuki Yoshinami, Kouji Hanada, and Hideyuki Utsumi Resistance Factors for the Ultimate Limit State Design of Footings on Clays Reinforced with Stone Columns . 619 Ahmad Kahiel, Shadi Najjar, and Salah Sadek Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 285 ix ASCEStochastic Analysis of Settleme

47、nt Rate in Unsaturated Soils . 631 A. Johari and A. H. Amjadi System Reliability Analysis of Circular Tunnels Reinforced by End-Anchored Rockbolts Using Bimodal Bounds Method and mvncdf Method . 640 Huaxin Liu and Bak Kong Low Uncertainty in a Geophysical Survey for a Bridge Foundation Design . 650

48、Paul Michaels The Use of Databases to Analyze Model Uncertainties of Geotechnical Design Procedures 660 Kerstin Lesny Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 285 x ASCE Bayesian Probabilistic Asset Management Protocol for Infrastructure Systems: Example Application to a Flood Protection System Anand V. Govindasamy, Ph.D.

49、, P.E., M.ASCE 1 ; W. Allen Marr, Ph.D., P.E., F.ASCE 2 ; Rickey P. Brouillette, P.E. 3 ; and John T. Christian, Ph.D., P.E., Dist.M.ASCE 41 Principal Engineer, Geocomp Corporation, Acton, MA (corresponding author). E-mail: 2 Chief Executive Officer, Geocomp Corporation, Acton, MA. E-mail: 3 Engineer Manager, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana. E-mail: rickey.brouillettela.gov 4 Consulting Engineer, Burlington, Massachusetts; Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ