ANSI American Society of Sanitary Engineering Z690.3-2011 Risk Assessment Techniques.pdf

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1、ANSI/ASSE/IEC/ISO 31010 (Z690.3-2011)ANSI/ASSE/IEC/ISO 31010 (Z690.3-2011)ANSI/ASSE/IEC/ISO 31010 (Z690.3-2011)Risk Assessment TechniquesNational Adoption of:IEC/ISO 31010:2009AMERICAN SOCIETY OFSAFETY ENGINEERSAMERICAN NATIONAL STANDARDASSEThe information and materials contained in this publication

2、 have been developed from sources believed to be reliable. However, the American Society of Safety Engineers (ASSE) as secretariat of the ANSI accredited Z690 Committee or individual committee members accept no legal responsibility for the correctness or completeness of this material or its applicat

3、ion to specific factual situations. By publication of this standard, ASSE or the Z690 Committee does not ensure that adherence to these recommendations will protect the safety or health of any persons, or preserve property. ANSI ANSI/ASSE/IEC/ISO 31010 (Z690.3-2011) National Adoption of: IEC/ISO 310

4、10:2009 American National Standard Risk Assessment Techniques Secretariat American Society of Safety Engineers 1800 East Oakton Street Des Plaines, Illinois 60018-2187 Approved: January 11, 2011 American National Standards Institute, Inc. Approval of an American National Standard requires verificati

5、on by ANSI that the requirements for due process, consensus, and other criteria for approval have been met by the standards developer. Consensus is established when, in the judgment of the ANSI Board of Standards Review, substantial agreement has been reached by directly and materially affected inte

6、rests. Substantial agreement means much more than a simple majority, but not necessarily unanimity. Consensus requires that all views and objections be considered, and that a concerted effort be made toward their resolution. The use of American National Standards is completely voluntary; their exist

7、ence does not in any respect preclude anyone, whether he/she has approved the standards or not, from manufacturing, marketing, purchasing, or using products, processes, or procedures not conforming to the standards. The American National Standards Institute does not develop standards and will in no

8、circumstance give an interpretation of any American National Standard. Moreover, no person shall have the right or authority to issue an interpretation of an American National Standard in the name of the American National Standards Institute. Requests for interpretation should be addressed to the se

9、cretariat or sponsor whose name appears on the title page of this standard. Caution Notice: This American National Standard may be revised or withdrawn at any time. The procedures of the American National Standards Institute requires that action be taken periodically to reaffirm, revise, or withdraw

10、 this standard. Purchasers of American National Standards may receive current information on all standards by calling or writing the American National Standards Institute. Published February 2011 by: American Society of Safety Engineers 1800 East Oakton Street Des Plaines, Illinois 60018-2187 (847)

11、699-2929 www.asse.org Copyright 2009 by the International Organization for Standardization All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 by the American Society of Safety Engineers All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, in an electronic retrieval system or otherwise, w

12、ithout the prior written permission of the publisher. Printed in the United States of America American National Standard Foreword (This Foreword is not a part of American National Standard Z690.3-2011.) This standard was developed by an American National Standards Committee, national in scope, funct

13、ioning under the Essential Requirements Document of the American National Standards Institute with the American Society of Safety Engineers (ASSE) as Secretariat. This standard provides risk management principles and guidelines It is intended that the procedures and performance requirements detailed

14、 herein will be adopted by every employer whose operations fall within the scope and purpose of the standard. Neither the standards committee, nor the secretariat, feel that this standard is perfect or in its ultimate form. It is recognized that new developments are to be expected, and that revision

15、s of the standard will be necessary as the art progresses and further experience is gained. It is felt, however, that uniform requirements are very much needed and that the standard in its present form provides for the minimum performance requirements necessary in developing and implementing risk ma

16、nagement programs. This standard is adopted from IEC/ISO 31010:2009, an international standard also titled “Risk Assessment Techniques”. This document was approved as an international standard during November 2009. In addition to IEC/ISO 31010 there are also two other documents addressing risk manag

17、ement being adopted as American National Standards: ISO Guide 73:2009, Risk Management - Vocabulary ISO 31000:2009, Risk Management: Principles and Guidelines During May 2010 the United States TAG (Technical Advisory Group) to ANSI for risk management reached consensus that these three documents sho

18、uld be adopted as American National Standards. Due to the ongoing significant interest being focused on risk management at the international level, additional consensus was reached that there should also be a committee looking at risk management standards for the United States. Such a committee woul

19、d function under accreditation of ASSE as a standards developing organization (SDO). ASSE applied for additional accreditation as a Standards Developing Organization, which was approved by ANSI during August of 2010. ASSE notified the public during August 2010 of its intention to adopt all three doc

20、uments as American National Standards. This original announcement was made without the submission of any negative comments. Public review of the subject documents was then conducted during November 2010. There were no negative comments submitted to ASSE as the secretariat. All committee votes for ad

21、option were positive without any submitted negative comments. Organization Represented Name of Representative AH any IEC National Committee interested in the subject dealt with may participate in this preparatory work. International, governmental and nongovernmental organizations liaising with the I

22、EC also participate in this preparation. IEC collaborates closely with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) in accordance with conditions determined by agreement between the two organizations. 2) The formal decisions or agreements of IEC on technical matters express, as nearly as

23、 possible, an international consensus of opinion on the relevant subjects since each technical committee has representation from all interested IEC National Committees. 3) IEC Publications have the form of recommendations for international use and are accepted by IEC National Committees in that sens

24、e. While all reasonable efforts are made to ensure that the technical content of IEC Publications is accurate, IEC cannot be held responsible for the way in which they are used or for any misinterpretation by any end user. 4) In order to promote international uniformity, IEC National Committees unde

25、rtake to apply IEC Publications transparently to the maximum extent possible in their national and regional publications. Any divergence between any IEC Publication and the corresponding national or regional publication shall be clearly indicated in the latter. 5) IEC itself does not provide any att

26、estation of conformity. Independent certification bodies provide conformity assessment services and, in some areas, access to IEC marks of conformity. IEC is not responsible for any services carried out by independent certification bodies. 6) All users should ensure that they have the latest edition

27、 of this publication. 7) No liability shall attach to IEC or its directors, employees, servants or agents including individual experts and members of its technical committees and IEC National Committees for any personal injury, property damage or other damage of any nature whatsoever, whether direct

28、 or indirect, or for costs (including legal fees) and expenses arising out of the publication, use of, or reliance upon, this IEC Publication or any other IEC Publications. 8) Attention is drawn to the Normative references cited in this publication. Use of the referenced publications is indispensabl

29、e for the correct application of this publication. 9) Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this IEC Publication may be the subject of patent rights. IEC shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights. International standard IEC/ISO 31010 has

30、 been prepared by IEC technical committee 56: Dependability together with the ISO TMB “Risk management” working group. The text of this standard is based on the FDIS 56/1329/FDIS. Full information on the voting for the approval of this standard can be found in the report on voting indicated in the a

31、bove table. In ISO, the standard has been approved by 17 member bodies out of 18 having cast a vote. This publication has been drafted in accordance with the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2. The committee has decided that the contents of this publication will remain unchanged until the maintenance result

32、 date indicated on the IEC web site under “http:/webstore.iec.ch“ in the data related to the specific publication. At this date, the publication will be reconfirmed; withdrawn; replaced by a revised edition; amended. Introduction Organizations of all types and sizes face a range of risks that may af

33、fect the achievement of their objectives. These objectives may relate to a range of the organizations activities, from strategic initiatives to its operations, processes and projects, and be reflected in terms of societal, environmental, technological, safety and security outcomes, commercial, finan

34、cial and economic measures, as well as social, cultural, political and reputation impacts. All activities of an organization involve risks that should be managed. The risk management process aids decision making by taking account of uncertainty and the possibility of future events or circumstances (

35、intended or unintended) and their effects on agreed objectives. Risk management includes the application of logical and systematic methods for communicating and consulting throughout this process; establishing the context for identifying, analyzing, evaluating, treating risk associated with any acti

36、vity, process, function or product; monitoring and reviewing risks; reporting and recording the results appropriately. Risk assessment is that part of risk management which provides a structured process that identifies how objectives may be affected, and analyzes the risk in term of consequences and

37、 their probabilities before deciding on whether further treatment is required. Risk assessment attempts to answer the following fundamental questions: what can happen and why (by risk identification)? what are the consequences? what is the probability of their future occurrence? are there any factor

38、s that mitigate the consequence of the risk or that reduce the probability of the risk? Is the level of risk tolerable or acceptable and does it require further treatment? This standard is intended to reflect current good practices in selection and utilization of risk assessment techniques, and does

39、 not refer to new or evolving concepts which have not reached a satisfactory level of professional consensus. This standard is general in nature, so that it may give guidance across many industries and types of system. There may be more specific standards in existence within these industries that es

40、tablish preferred methodologies and levels of assessment for particular applications. If these standards are in harmony with this standard, the specific standards will generally be sufficient. Contents SECTION PAGE 1. Scope 11 2. Normative References. 11 3. Terms and Definitions . 11 4. Risk Assessm

41、ent Concepts 11 4.1 Purpose and Benefits 11 4.2 Risk Assessment and the Risk Management Framework . 12 4.3 Risk Assessment and the Risk Management Process 12 5. Risk Assessment Process . 15 5.1 Overview 15 5.2 Risk Identification 16 5.3 Risk Analysis . 17 5.4 Risk Evaluation 20 5.5 Documentation 21

42、5.6 Monitoring and Reviewing Risk Assessment 22 5.7 Application of Risk Assessment During Life Cycle Phases . 22 6. Selection of Risk Assessment Techniques . 22 6.1 General 22 6.2 Selection of Techniques 22 6.3 Availability of Resources . 24 6.4 The Nature and Degree of Uncertainty . 24 6.5 Complexi

43、ty . 24 6.6 Application of Risk Assessment During Life Cycle Phases . 24 6.7 Types of Risk Assessment Techniques 25 Annexes: A (informative) Comparison of Risk Assessment Techniques . 26 B (informative) Risk Assessment Techniques 31 Bibliography 110 Figures: 1 Contribution of Risk Assessment to the

44、Risk Management Process 16 B.1 Dose-Response Curve . 45 B.2 Example of an FTA from IEC 60300-3-9 60 B.3 Example of an Event Tree 64 B.4 Example of Cause-Consequence Analysis 67 B.5 Example of Ishikawa or Fishbone Diagram 70 B.6 Example of Tree Formulation of Cause-and-Effect Analysis . 71 B.7 Exampl

45、e of Human Reliability Assessment 78 B.8 Example Bow Tie Diagram for Unwanted Consequences . 80 B.9 Example of System Markov Diagram . 86 B.10 Example of State Transition Diagram 87 B.11 Sample Bayes Net . 95 B.12 The ALARP Concept 98 B.13 Part Example of a Consequence Criteria Table 103 B.14 Part E

46、xample of a Risk Ranking Matrix . 103 B.15 Part Example of a Probability Criteria Matrix 104 Tables: A.1 Applicability of Tools Used for Risk Assessment . 27 A.2 Attributes of a Selection of Risk Assessment Tools . 28 B.1 Example of Possible HAZOP Guidewords . 40 B.2 Markov Matrix . 86 B.3 Final Mar

47、kov Matrix 88 B.4 Example of Monte Carlo Simulation . 91 B.5 Bayes Table Data 94 B.6 Prior Probabilities for Nodes A and B . 95 B.7 Conditional Probabilities for Node C with Node A and Node B Defined 95 B.8 Conditional Probabilities for Node D with Node A and Node C Defined 96 B.9 Posterior Probabil

48、ity for Nodes A and B with Node D and Node C Defined 96 B.10 Posterior Probability for Node A with Node D and Node C Defined 96 AMERICAN NATIONAL STANDARD Z690.3-2011 11 AMERICAN NATIONAL STANDARD Z690.3 RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES 1. SCOPE This standard is a supporting standard for ANSI/ASSE Z690.1,

49、 Vocabulary for Risk Management, (ISO 31000:2009), and provides guidance on selection and application of systematic techniques for risk assessment. Risk assessment carried out in accordance with this standard contributes to other risk management activities. The application of a range of techniques is introduced, with specific references to other national and international standards where the concept and application of techniques are described in greater detail. This standard is not intended for certific