可持续发展的煤炭利用Transforming Coal for Sustainability.ppt
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1、可持续发展的煤炭利用 Transforming Coal for Sustainability,国合会 能源专题组 TFEST of CCICED,中国目前的能源系统是不可持续的 The energy system in China is unsustainable,将来面临的风险: 过度依赖石油进口 环境状况迅速恶化 温室气体减排代价高昂,China will become overly dependent on oil imports as a result of rapidly growing demand for liquid fuels Severe environment dama
2、ges caused by direct combustion of coal China will not be able to make its contribution to mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under low cost.,中国一次能源将来仍将以煤炭为主 The coal is the main part of primary energy in China,以合理成本降低上述风险的方案 To mitigate these risks at reasonable cost,中国能源模型分析表明,面对这些风险,传统的技术方
3、案无法解决问题。通过采用煤炭现代化利用的战略能够以合理的代价降低上述风险,The business as usual mode cant solve the above mentioned problem .Through modernization of coal utilization, the above mentioned problems could be solved with reasonable cost.,煤炭现代化利用的含义 Meaning of Modernization of coal utilization,煤炭的现代化是指通过煤气化技术来生产热能,电力,运输用清洁燃
4、料,炊事用燃料等,即多联产能源系统。,Modernization of coal utilizationlarge scale gasification of coal and coproduction of liquid fuels(methanol, dimethyl ether, etc), other value-added chemicals and electric power. If necessary, syngas and heat for residential use could also be provided. It is so-called polygenerati
5、on system.,采用先进技术方案的效果 The effect of Advanced Technologies Scenario,成本与传统技术方案相当 煤炭开采量与传统技术方案相当 SO2的排放从1995年的2370万吨下降到2020年的1620万吨、2050年的880万吨。 石油与天然气进口量限制在总消耗量的30%左右。累计CO2排放量少于660亿吨碳,Provides the same energy services at about the same cost as the Base technologies strategy SO2 emissions are reduced
6、from 23.7 Mt in 1995 to 16.2 Mt in 2020 and 8.8 Mt in 2050 Imports of oil and natural gas are limited to 30% of consumption of oil and gas over the long-term 66 Gt C caps,实施煤炭现代化利用战略刻不容缓 Urgent Action by Chinas Leadership is Required,要增加到2020年的小康水平 ,中国的煤电装机增量约为5亿kW 若不早做安排,新建煤电会全部采用直接燃烧的方式,左右今后30年煤炭利
7、用格局 需要国家总体调控下,在总量中安排部分以煤气化为核心的多联产项目。,For modernization, rapidly growth of electricity is needed. large investments are planned for electricity over the next decade that will lock in the mode of coal use of China through 2020 and for many decades thereafter. It is extremely necessary to have strategi
8、es programmed to arrange the polygeneration plants just from now,实施煤炭现代化战略刻不容缓(一) Urgent Action by Chinas Leadership is Required (1),今后20年燃煤发电装机容量预测 Projection for Coal Power Plant Capacity,实施煤炭现代化战略刻不容缓(二) Urgent Action by Chinas Leadership is Required (2),如果延误过渡到以气化为基础的多联产技术的时机,将会:显著增加将来中国治理空气污染的成
9、本; 难以控制未来石油进口 大大增加减排温室气体的成本。,Delaying the start of the transition to coal gasification-based polygeneration technology would significantly increase: the costs to China of air pollution damages, the costs of oil imports, the costs of reducing GHG emissions.,增加空气污染的治理成本 The costs of air pollution dama
10、ges,我国环境已经非常恶劣酸雨面积占国土面积的40 大气污染主要是燃煤排放 城市污染主要是汽车尾气 按现有技术,能耗总量持续增长,将对环境与公众健康造成非常大的损害(损失占GDP13%),The environment of China is seriously bad The majority of air pollution comes from direct combustion of coal The main cause of urban area air pollution is the emission of car Severe additional public healt
11、h and environmental damages will occur in China with very large economic consequences (projected to grow from over 7% of GDP to 13% of GDP in 2020),我国液体燃料短缺现象日趋严重 Shortage of liquid fuel and energy security,预计到2020年,进口量将超过总消费量的50%以上,这将严重影响我国的能源安全。 加强石油勘探开采,实施走出去战略,多渠道进口石油是主要措施 从我国比较丰富的煤炭转化为车用液体燃料是一个
12、重要的战略,The import oil percentage by the year of 2020 will be more than 50%.the enhancement of exploitation of the petroleum is the main method. the production of liquid fuel from the relative abundant coal reverse in china is strategically important.,我国煤炭转化为车用液体燃料战略 Production of liquid fuel from coa
13、l,直接液化基本投资大,所得油品质量低 间接液化能量转换率低 最重要的是在经济上无法和石油炼制竞争 煤气化多联产系统 是较好选择,the quality of fuel is bad (direct liquefaction) The energy transformation ratio is low (indirect liquefaction), economically unfeasible The poly-generation is a good option,增加温室气体减排成本 Increase the costs of reducing GHG emissions,我国在19
14、95年所排放的CO2 总量达30亿吨,占世界总排放量的13.6% 我国的CO2 排放迟早会受到限制 常规技术的燃煤电站减排CO2 非常困难,The CO2 emission of China in 1995 is 13.6% of total emission in the world The CO2 emission will be limited sooner or later.mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conventional coal power plant will lead to high cost.,煤气化多联产的技
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