SAE JPF-P 3-003-2014 Unwinding Electric Motors Strategic Perspectives and Insights for Automotive Powertrain Applications (To Purchase Call 1-800-854-7179 USA Canada or 303-397-795.pdf

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1、 Unwinding Electric Motors:Strategic Perspectives and Insights for Automotive Powertrain ApplicationsOther SAE books of interest:Advanced Hybrid Powertrains for Commercial VehiclesBy Haoran Hu, Simon Baseley, and Rudolf M. Smaling(Product Code: R-396)Automotive 2030-North AmericaBy Bruce Morey(Produ

2、ct Code: T-127)Hybrid-Powered Vehicles, Second EditionBy John German(Product Code: T-125)For more information or to order a book, contact SAE INTERNATIONAL at400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA 15096-0001, USA;phone +1-877-606-7323 (U.S. and Canada only) or +1-724-776-4970 (outside U.S. and Canad

3、a);fax +1-724-776-0790;e-mail CustomerServicesae.org;website http:/books.sae.org.Unwinding Electric Motors: Strategic Perspectives and Insights for Automotive Powertrain ApplicationsBy Timothy G. ThoppilWarrendale, Pennsylvania USACopyright 2014 SAE InternationaleISBN: 978-0-7680-8015-5 400 Commonwe

4、alth DriveWarrendale, PA 15096E-mail: CustomerServicesae.orgPhone: +1.877.606.7323 (inside USA and Canada)+1.724.776.4970 (outside USA)Fax: +1.724.776.0790Copyright 2014 SAE International. All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, distributed, o

5、r transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of SAE International. For permission and licensing requests, contact SAE Permissions, 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA 15096-0001 USA; email: copyrightsae.org; phone: +1-724-772-4028; fax: +1-724-772-9765.ISBN 978-

6、0-7680-8014-8SAE Order Number JPF-P3-003DOI 10.4271/JPF-P3-003Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataThoppil, Timothy G., author.Unwinding electric motors : strategic perspectives and insights for automotive powertrain applications / by Timothy G. Thoppil.pages cm“SAE order no. JPF-P3-003

7、.”ISBN 978-0-7680-8014-81. Electric motor industry. 2. Electric motors-Design and construction. 3. Business logistics. 4. Hybrid electric vehicles-Powertrains. I. Title. HD9697.M692T46 2014629.2502068-dc23 2013050056Information contained in this work has been obtained by SAE International from sourc

8、es believed to be reliable. However, neither SAE International nor its authors guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information published herein and neither SAE International nor its authors shall be responsible for any errors, omissions, or damages arising out of use of this information. T

9、his work is published with the understanding that SAE International and its authors are supplying information, but are not attempting to render engineering or other professional services. If such services are required, the assistance of an appropriate profes-sional should be sought.To purchase bulk

10、quantities, please contact:SAE Customer ServiceE-mail: CustomerServicesae.orgPhone: +1-877-606-7323 (inside USA and Canada)+1-724-776-4970 (outside USA)Fax: +1-724-776-0790Visit the SAE International Bookstore at books.sae.orgv Table of ContentsForeword viiAcknowledgments . ixIntroduction xiChapter

11、1 .1Megatrends Influencing the Electric Motor Industry . 11.1 Market Environment .11.2 Product and Technology Landscape 71.3 Manufacturing Landscape and Trends 151.4 Product Cost Trends .171.5 Business Models and Strategies . 191.6 Summary and Recommendations .24Chapter 2 27Technology Trends and Ben

12、chmarking 272.1 Motor Requirements for Hybrid/EV Applications .282.2 Benchmarking and Assessment of Technology Solutions .332.3 Summary and Recommendations .49Chapter 3 53Electric Motor Manufacturing . 533.1 Classification of Motor Manufacturing Facilities .533.2 Factors Affecting Manufacturing Plan

13、t Location 573.3 Electric Motor Manufacturing Processes 623.4 Analysis of Strategic Manufacturing Processes . 643.5 Summary and Recommendations 70Chapter 4 73Electric Motor Sourcing and Supply Chain . 734.1 Overview of Electric Motor Supply Chain 734.2 Electric Motor Cost Breakdown and Supply Chain

14、Analysis .764.3 Supply Chain Factors Influencing Cost of Electric Motors 784.4 Geographic Distribution of Electric Motor Supply Base . 844.5 Emerging Supply Chain Models and Trends . 864.6 Summary and Recommendations .95About the Author 99ForewordClarity and good strategic decisions tend to go hand

15、in hand. From the choice of the right technology to the management of complex supply chains, the need for solid and lucid information is essential to stay ahead in a dynamic market. With the intention of providing exactly that, this market study, co-published by SAE International and P3 North Americ

16、a, delves into the fast-paced world of electric motors.In a joint effort that brings together the technology and product strategy experience of the P3 Group and the focused reach of SAE International, Unwinding Electric Motors: Strategic Perspectives and Insights for Automotive Powertrain Applicatio

17、ns covers a wide range of topics within this fascinating subject. Starting with the megatrends that currently influence the industry, this study provides an in-depth assessment of the technological, manufacturing, sourcing, and supply chain factors that will be shaping this landscape for the next fi

18、ve years. The goal of this initiative is to provide insights through structured, data-driven analyses and frameworks.Authored by Timothy G. Thoppil, electric powertrain technology lead at P3 North America, Unwinding Electric Motors: Strategic Perspectives and Insights for Automotive Powertrain Appli

19、cations draws on extensive industry experience and is supported by surveys and interviews with industry professionals from original equipment manufacturers, Tier 1 suppliers, research institutions, and universities. Its summaries and recommendations are invaluable to those looking for reliable intel

20、ligence and the tools to support good decision making. SAE Internationalvii AcknowledgmentsI would like to express my sincere appreciation to Dr. Samit Ghosh and Mr. David Woessner for making this study possible by dedicating resources and time toward this effort. I would also like to thank my colle

21、agues Stephen Xu (coordi-nation and planning); Jan Kuntz, Aaron Miers, and Florian Schaefer (research and analysis); and Priya Playle (review and editing). Last but not least, I would like to thank the SAE team involved with this initiative, particularly Monica Nogueira, for support throughout the d

22、evelopment and publication of this study. Timothy G. Thoppil30 July 2013 ix xi IntroductionOver the last 15 years, powertrains in the automotive industry have evolved from a few variants of internal combustion engines to an expansive range of tech-nologies and architectures. The impetus for this div

23、ersification of powertrains is a combination of various factors, including rising fuel economy and emission standards, government funding and subsidies, venture capital interest, and advancements in various enabling technologies. Figure I.1 shows the major powertrain architectures in the automotive

24、industry today.Figure I.1 Powertrains in the automotive industry Among the powertrain types shown in Figure I.1, full hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles are classified as electrified powertrain vehicles, which are capable of being propelled purely by the electric motor. As a consequence

25、, the motor has a direct role in the performance of the vehicle and is a critical component of the powertrain. As a new product and technology for the automotive industry, traction motors are a challenge and also an opportunity for original equipment manufacturers and suppliers. The objective of thi

26、s study is to analyze electric motors from four different perspectives to understand the trends and future direction of the industry: megatrends, technology, manufacturing, and supply chain. The topics discussed in this study are listed in Figure I.2.xii Figure I.2 Topics and insights The study is b

27、ased on information and inputs from four major sources, as shown in Figure I.3. Opinions from industry experts were collected through interviews and surveys and used to validate and augment research results and hypotheses. Figure I.3 Study sources Each of the sections concludes with specific short-

28、and long-term priorities and recommendations. The forecast and planning horizon considered for this book is the period of the next five years, from 2014 to 2018. The study will be updated with new content and data every two years and is expected to be a comprehen-sive report and decision-making tool

29、 for the electric motor industry.1 Megatrends Influencing the Electric Motor IndustryChapter 1Megatrends Influencing the Electric Motor IndustryThe emergence of electrified vehicles as mainstream products in the automotive industry has given renewed significance to electric motors. With substantial

30、investment, complex strategic plays, and even intense political interest focusing on electric motors, this has become an industry that is chal-lenging and crucial to study. The complexity of the electric motor industry can be attributed to three factors that are unique and almost unprecedented in th

31、e automotive ecosystem: Uncertain future market potential: Depending on the market acceptance of electrified vehicles, electric motor manufacturing can range from being a modest niche ($500 million annually) to a large and growing subsector of the automotive industry (greater than $10 billion). Comp

32、etitive landscape: An expansive competitive landscape includes original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), Tier 1 suppliers, nonautomotive companies, and startups; each group has its own unique value proposition. This has led to complex and disruptive business models. Diversity of technology options: M

33、ultiple topologies and technology solutions for cost reduction, performance, and packaging, as well as diverse applications (hybrid, plug-in, electric, in-wheel) that have a wide range of requirements and solutions. In this chapter, each of these and other related megatrends that are influencing the

34、 future direction of the electric motor industry will be analyzed. The goal of this chapter is to provide a high-level overview of market dynamics and inputs for strategic decision making. 1.1 Market Environment Market ProjectionThe future demand for electrified powertrains is a critical determinant

35、 of the cost, investment, and development activity associated with electric motors. 2 Chapter 1Demand for electric motors will come from three primary applications: full hybrid non-plug-in vehicles, plug-in vehicles, and electric vehicles (EVs). Each of these applications has different growth rates

36、and market volumes driven by individual customer preferences and lifestyle, fuel economy and emission regulations, incentives, and pricing. In Figure 1.1, the market projec-tions for electric motors are provided for the next five years. The forecast includes announced as well as future vehicle progr

37、ams. Factors related to the technology, cost, regulations, and market acceptance of electrified powertrains have been considered as well as general trends and cycles in the global automotive industry. The number of alternative powertrain vehicle programs planned by the major OEMs for each year is al

38、so provided to describe the frag-mentation in the market. Some insights from the forecast are detailed: Figure 1.1 Electric motor volume projections: 20142018 The global demand for electric motors will rise to 8.0 million by 2018. More than 61% of this volume will come from full-hybrid non-plug-in v

39、ehicles. Battery EVs will continue to be the smallest segment, with 13% of motor volumes. In terms of growth, motors for plug-in vehicles will lead the market with 16% annual growth followed by full-hybrid (11%) and EV motors (6%). 2016 will be the strongest growth year for all electrified vehicles,

40、 primarily due to the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards that will go into effect during that year. Hybrid variants of existing popular vehicles will be the primary driver of higher volumes until 2016. The growth phase for plug-in vehicles will begin in 2016 and beyond 2018 for battery

41、EVs. 3 Megatrends Influencing the Electric Motor Industry The electrified powertrain industry will become even more fragmented as the decade progresses due to higher number of variants and models. In 2014, 80% of annual production volumes will come from 32 programs. In 2018, 53 programs will contrib

42、ute to the top 80%. Fragmentation will be highest in EVs (49 programs), followed by plug-in hybrids (58 programs) and non-plug-in hybrids (79 programs). Choice and variety will become key drivers for growth of electrified powertrains, along with cost reduction. In a survey of industry experts from O

43、EMs and Tiers 1 and 2 suppliers, most respondents chose plug-in hybrids as the powertrain architecture, with the highest long-term potential for electric motors. The results are shown in Figure 1.2. Figure 1.2 Industry opinion: Powertrain architectures with highest potential for electric motors Regi

44、onal TrendsRegional trends in electric motor production are largely dependent on factors such as local demand and type of EVs used, as well as the strategy of each OEM or suppliers. Currently, sourcing of electric motors from low-cost regions is minimal. Figure 1.3 shows the global distribution of e

45、lectric motor volumes. Japan is the largest producer of electric motors, with more than 58% of global 4 Chapter 1volumes. The United States is the next largest producer, with 19% of volumes, followed by Europe and China. Over the next five years, Japans share of the electric motor market will declin

46、e as production for some programs shift close to major markets, such as the United States and China. China is the fastest growing region for electric motors in terms of demand and production, and is driven by strong incentives and regulations. Figure 1.3 Distribution of electric motor volumes Figure

47、 1.4 shows the projected regional breakup of markets by type of powertrain in 2018. Japan and Europe have a similar breakup with full-hybrid and plug-in hybrid motors in substantial volumes. The U.S. market is dominated by non-plug-in hybrid motors with relatively few electric and plug-in vehicles.

48、The majority of motors used in the United States are smaller motors in the 3075 KW range. China is expected to have the highest penetra-tion of battery EVs and plug-in hybrids. Because of this, a majority of the motors sold in China will be large motors, with a rating of 75 KW and above. 5 Megatrend

49、s Influencing the Electric Motor IndustryFigure 1.4 Breakup of major motor markets by powertrain type Industry Players and Competitive Environment The competitive environment for electric motors includes automotive OEMs, major Tier 1 suppliers, nonautomotive suppliers, and emerging suppliers. Table 1.1 shows these four categories of players with examples and key insights.