REG NASA-LLIS-1780-2007 Lessons Learned - How to Plan and Manage Project Reserves.pdf
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1、Lessons Learned Entry: 1780Lesson Info:a71 Lesson Number: 1780a71 Lesson Date: 2007-04-10a71 Submitting Organization: JPLa71 Submitted by: Kenneth Atkinsa71 POC Name: Kenneth Atkins, Rick Grammiera71 POC Email: Kenneth.L.Atkinsjpl.nasa.gov, Richard.S.Grammierjpl.nasa.gova71 POC Phone: 818.354.4480 (
2、Atkins), 818.354.0596 (Grammier)Subject: How to Plan and Manage Project Reserves Abstract: Lessons from JPL spaceflight projects initiated in the 1990s demonstrate that the flight project manager (PM) must maintain a buffer of reserves that will be sufficient to overcome the problems endemic to the
3、latter stages of complex, high risk, system development. The Stardust project may be unique among these cost-capped missions in that it managed to complete development with the proposed reserve. Stardust project reserves management practices may serve as a model for the project manager in determinin
4、g whether project reserves are sufficient, when to release the reserves, and how they should be spent.Description of Driving Event: The JPL Stardust project proved very successful in accomplishing its objective of returning a sample of cometary material. This was due in part to its innovative use of
5、 programmatic resource management techniques, and to its firm commitment to managing the work against cost-to-complete (in contrast to merely managing actual costs against planned). NASA budgetary constraints, and a mandate to accomplish more with fewer resources, led in the mid-1990s to a faster, b
6、etter, cheaper (FBC) paradigm and competitive mission selections. Where NASA-funded spaceflight projects were previously requirement-driven and open-scope, successive JPL projects became severely cost and/or schedule-constrained. With NASA demonstrating a resolve to cancel projects that fail to demo
7、nstrate budget and schedule discipline, managers of essentially fixed-price flight projects have been pressed to exercise tight budget and schedule control. Although there were some significant successes under this new paradigm, problems with balancing project resources and risk led to a number of m
8、ission failures (e.g., Mars Climate Orbiter, Mars Polar Lander, Wide-Field Infrared Explorer, Contour). Achieving this culture change for planetary exploration and space science required processes and procedures for implementing “design-to-cost“ and “manage-to-budget.“ Lessons from JPL flight projec
9、ts initiated in the 1990s demonstrate that the flight project manager (PM) must maintain a buffer of reserves that will be sufficient to overcome the problems endemic to the latter stages of complex, high risk, system development. Consistent and rigorous reserve management is a preventative practice
10、 that assures that the project remains on track. In contrast, it is likely that a PM who spends too much too soon, or delays until no amount of reserves can salvage the project, will be unable to recover from adverse developments. Stardust may have been unique among these flight projects in completi
11、ng development (Phase D) with the proposed reserve. Stardust project management practices and results may serve as a model for PMs who wish to understand (1) whether project reserves established by a proposal team competing under very tight cost constraints are sufficient, (2) how to develop a plan
12、and criteria for release of reserve, and (3) how to integrate the releases with an earned value management (EVM) system (Reference (1). Specifically, the Stardust experience provides guidance on how the PM may: Provided by IHSNot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from
13、 IHS-,-,-1. Determine the adequate reserves buffer, 2. Develop a plan for expending the reserve in the context of risk, 3. Integrate the reserve plan with EVM and scope, and 4. Control reserve on “cost-to-go“ (i.e., cost to complete the baseline plan). The Stardust PM implemented a reserves manageme
14、nt plan early in Phase B to (1) derive a set of affordable flight system capabilities that matched the prioritized requirements, (2) produce a risk-adjusted scope of work, and (3) generate a work plan based on earning value (Reference (2). This established a planned cash flow inside the time boundar
15、ies to defeat known threats to mission success. Metrics were identified and criteria were pre-determined that would trigger the timely application of additional reserves to mitigating major risks (Figure 1). Planning the allocation of the reserve pool recognized that the risk scenario was only an es
16、timate: some expected problems did not occur, while some expected and unexpected problems did. Implementing the plan in 10 key steps, Stardust: Figure 1 is a set of two color graphs titled ?Performance Assessment Metric for Total Project? that plot the accomplishment of monthly earning events (basel
17、ine vs. actual) such as Stardust task initiation and completion. The topmost graph measures baseline versus actual monthly earning events in terms of percentages (y-axis) over a span of 24 months (x-axis). A solid green line representing the baseline remains constant at 100 percent across the graph.
18、 A solid blue line representing the actual starts at 100 percent in the first month and continues in a downward slope reaching a minimum after 6 months. Thereafter, the graph continues in an upward slope until it reaches the current state after 10 months. A red arrow directs our attention to the cur
19、rent state and displays the value at that point: 86% of the total number of project earning tasks are complete. The bottom graph plots the baseline versus actual monthly earning events in terms of events per month (y-axis) over a span of 24 months (x-axis). The graph contains three bars: green bar (
20、baseline), blue bar (actual), white bar (current schedule). The graph exhibits a trend of baseline exceeding the actual until the eighth month. From the eight to 10th month (current state), baseline and actual earning events are roughly the same. Thereafter, the projected current schedule (white bar
21、) exceeds the baseline plan (green bar) for the ensuing months.Figure 1. This Stardust performance assessment metric (PAM) plots the accomplishment of monthly earning events (baseline vs. actual) on the left ordinate as both raw counts and a ratio of actual to baseline. The curves (bottom plot) prov
22、ide the cumulative picture of baseline (green /long dashes) and critical path events (red/alternate dash-dot), with the actual (blue/solid bottom curve) accomplishment falling between. The middle (black/dashed) curve projects moving the actual progress off the critical path and recapturing schedule
23、slack. If the actual cannot be returned to the baseline within the target schedule completion, the project will fail the schedule and cost (time=$) success criteria. (That is, the schedule must slip, the baseline job cannot be completed as agreed, and cost will certainly increase, resulting in loss
24、of control over the scope.) To avoid this and achieve the baseline (top curve) job, Stardust planned to have adequate schedule and budget reserve. Provided by IHSNot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-1. Documented in an agreement (project plan or Mission
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