1、 Rep. ITU-R M.2077 1 REPORT ITU-R M.2077 Traffic forecasts and estimated spectrum requirements for the satellite component of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000*for the period 2010 to 2020 (2006) Scope This Report presents traffic forecasts and estimated spectrum requirements for the satellite com
2、ponent of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 for the time period 2010 to 2020. It is a continuation of Report ITU-R M.2023 which contains spectrum requirements for IMT-2000 up to the year 2010. This Report provides the technical basis for related spectrum requirements identified in the Conference
3、Preparatory Meeting (CPM) Report on WRC-07 Agenda item 1.4. 1 Introduction Systems beyond IMT-2000 is a concept and telecommunication standard that is evolving within ITU. Systems beyond IMT-2000 are envisaged to provide ubiquitous, high-data rate, content rich services to highly mobile users anywhe
4、re in the world. The time-frame for the introduction of systems beyond IMT-2000 is currently targeted to be around 2010. Although beyond IMT-2000 services are expected to be dominated by terrestrial service providers, the satellite component of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 will play an integ
5、ral part in systems beyond the IMT-2000 service provisions, especially in remote areas where terrestrial providers have minimal or no coverage. The objective of this Report is to provide traffic forecasts including multimedia (MM) distribution services, and estimates of spectrum requirements for the
6、 satellite component of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000 for the period 2010 to 2020. It builds upon subscriber forecasts, traffic models and application of the latest spectrum calculation methodology in compliance with Recommendation ITU-R M.1391 to determine the spectrum requirements. 2 Traffi
7、c forecast This section describes the derivation of the traffic forecasts for the satellite component of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000. Information is provided on the different services and applications used in each segment. Finally, the subscriber numbers and traffic usage profiles for each
8、segment are combined to derive the overall traffic forecast. *The nomenclature for systems beyond IMT-2000 is contained in draft Resolution IMT-NAME, which will be considered for adoption at the Radiocommunication Assembly 2007 (RA-07). Future revisions to this Report should take any decisions of th
9、e RA-07 in this regard into account. 2 Rep. ITU-R M.2077 2.1 Subscriber numbers The Report uses as a baseline the results of extensive user requirement studies showing the global number of MSS subscribers as given in Table 1. In view of rapid developments after completion of the subscriber user requ
10、irements study, the numbers for 2010 and 2011 have been slightly adjusted to reflect the situation between 2002 and 2005, where the number of MSS subscribers increased from 643 000 by end of 2002 to 1 402 000 by the end of 2005, resulting in an annual growth rate of 29%. The adjusted numbers for 201
11、0 and 2011 are 2.17 and 2.43 million subscribers, respectively. Two bounding scenarios with 9% and 14% annual growth have been selected to represent a pessimistic and an optimistic development, respectively. The starting position for these scenarios is 1.4 million established MSS subscribers at the
12、beginning of 2006. In deriving MSS subscriber forecasts for systems beyond IMT-2000, various uptake variables like growth rates and penetration of cellular systems, growth rates and penetration of nomadic technologies (i.e. IEEE 802.16 and 802.20), gross domestic product per capita including growth
13、rates and population distributions were considered. For the Regions Asia, North America, South America, Europe, Africa and the Arab States, the uptake variables are applied separately, taking into account different user segments (private, professional, corporate and institutional) and different usag
14、e environments (urban and rural). TABLE 1 Global MSS subscribers for systems beyond IMT-2000 from 2010 to 2020 Subscribers (000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Asia 690.75 893.83 1 109.85 1 332.78 1 547.54 1 756.76 1 966.21 2 253.40 2 506.80 2 770.32 3 053.13North America 335
15、.81 405.54 475.56 536.59 585.76 626.48 663.01 718.10 755.01 790.20 825.47South America 56.33 71.45 88.14 104.67 120.22 135.10 149.95 170.33 187.72 205.78 224.99Europe 751.03 896.69 1 038.76 1 158.47 1 249.92 1 321.94 1 384.63 1 484.69 1 545.75 1 602.53 1 659.05Africa and the Arab States 23.48 25.80
16、30.69 35.64 40.48 45.16 49.68 54.91 59.89 65.44 70.81Total land 1 857.40 2 293.31 2 742.90 3 168.15 3 543.92 3 885.44 4 213.48 4 681.43 5 055.17 5 434.27 5 833.45Maritime 15.45 16.47 19.44 22.20 24.72 27.21 29.67 32.10 34.57 37.31 39.74Aeronautical 2.98 3.13 3.74 4.33 4.88 5.38 5.87 6.36 6.88 7.45 7
17、.952010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Subscribers for low traffic scenario 1.976 2.154 2.348 2.559 2.790 3.041 3.314 3.613 3.938 4.292 4.678Subscribers for adjusted market review 2.170 2.425 2.766 3.195 3.574 3.918 4.249 4.720 5.097 5.479 5.881Subscribers for high traffic scenari
18、o 2.365 2.696 3.074 3.504 3.994 4.554 5.191 5.918 6.746 7.691 8.768Figure 1 shows the results of the user requirement forecast, the slight adjustments for 2010 and 2011 as well as the two bounding scenarios with 9% and 14% growth rate, respectively. Rep. ITU-R M.2077 3 FIGURE 1 Number of MSS subscri
19、bers Table 2 shows the expected proportion of MSS subscribers by land, maritime and aeronautical users for the period 2010 to 2020. Although the characteristics of the three different subscriber types are somewhat different from each other, their impact on the overall spectrum requirement is insigni
20、ficant. The sum of the three service types has therefore been taken for the spectrum calculations. TABLE 2 MSS user distribution from 2010 to 2020 Subscriber proportions (%) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Land 99 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2Maritime 0.8 0
21、.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7Aeronautical 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Table 3 shows the forecast growth in satellite multimedia distribution subscribers in the period 2010 to 2020. The values are based on an analysis of Europe
22、an subscribers to satellite multimedia distribution services. The study is based on an assumed population of 252 million inhabitants by 2020 in the countries France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. 4 Rep. ITU-R M.2077 TABLE 3 Satellite multimedia distribution subscriber numbers 2010 to 2020 Year 2
23、010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Penetration of satellite distribution as a percentage of overall European mobile subscribers (%) 4.60 6.20 8.00 10.00 11.90 13.90 25.20 16.40 17.20 17.70 18.00 Satellite distribution subscribers (millions) 11.59 15.62 20.16 25.20 29.99 35.03 38.3
24、0 41.33 43.34 44.60 45.36 2.2 User categorization In deriving the MSS subscriber numbers shown in Table 1, four different user groups were considered: Corporate users: Large organizations that require mobile services for their business critical applications, such as asset tracking. Institutional use
25、rs: Individuals and organizations operating in the governmental sector in areas such as emergency response, aviation services and maritime safety services. Professional users: This includes individuals within businesses that require mobile telecommunications to perform their own jobs more effectivel
26、y, entrepreneurs and private individuals in the top income percentile. Private users: Private individuals that make use of mass market mobile services, as well as specialist mobile services. Table 4 shows the different user categories associated with the different user groups by environment. TABLE 4
27、 User categories by environment Urban Suburban Rural Corporate users Media Retail Food and drink Services Transport Construct Machinery Food and drink Aviation/space Motor/Packaging Chemical Agricultural Leisure and travel Food and drink Institutional users Universities Libraries Universities Librar
28、ies Research Hospitals Schools Libraries Hospitals Professional users Entrepreneurs Bankers Consultants Physicians IT professionals Physicians IT professionals Leisure and travel Private users Children, youth and teenSingles Foreign communities Young families Communities Empty-nesters Communities Re
29、p. ITU-R M.2077 5 2.3 Radio services and applications used by each category The service categorization used in this Report is the same as that in Report ITU-R M.2023 on spectrum requirements for IMT-2000. Basically, services are divided into multimedia and non-multimedia. Multimedia services are bas
30、ed on packet switched services, while non-multimedia services are mostly circuit-switched voice and data services. The multimedia and non-multimedia services are further subdivided as follows: 2.3.1 Non-multimedia Voice: a voice coding rate of 8/16 kbit/s is assumed in Report ITU-R M.2023 but most M
31、SS systems now use rates less than this and some use rates as low as 2.4 kbit/s. Low-speed data: circuit mode data services, Report ITU-R M.2023 identifies rates of 9.6/16 kbit/s but it is assumed here to include any of the current circuit mode data services up to 64 kbit/s. Messaging: low data rate
32、 messaging at 2.4/4.8 kbit/s. This was not included as a separate category in Report ITU-R M.2023 but has been addressed separately here because of the large number of satellite mobile subscribers for these services. 2.3.2 Multimedia Voice: a voice coding rate of 8/16 kbit/s is assumed in Report ITU
33、-R M.2023 but new services are likely to employ voice coding rates much less than this, possibly as low as 2.4 kbit/s. Low-speed data: messaging and email (without attachments) services at 9.6/16 kbit/s. Asymmetric services: one-way services including file transfer, database access, intranet/Interne
34、t, email (with attachments) image transfer, etc. at 144 kbit/s. Multimedia interactive: videoconferencing and videotelephony at data speeds of around 144 kbit/s. Multimedia distribution service: a multiplexed forward link with a carrier data rate of around 2.3 Mbit/s. The return link will be low rat
35、e and might use a terrestrial connection where available. This category was not included in Report ITU-R M.2023. Table 5 shows the services and example applications: TABLE 5 Radio services and applications Radio services Services Example applications Land Non-multimedia Voice, messaging, low-speed d
36、ata Multimedia Voice, low-speed data, asymmetric, distribution Asset management, payphone, secure phone services, email, fax, satellite news gathering, Internet access, videoconferencing, TV Maritime Non-multimedia Voice, messaging, low-speed data Multimedia Voice, low-speed data, asymmetric, distri
37、bution Crew/passenger calling, asset management, email, fax, safety services, videoconferencing, Internet access, TV, satellite news gathering Aeronautical Non-multimedia Voice, messaging, low-speed data Multimedia Voice, low-speed data, asymmetric, distribution Passenger calling, email, Internet ac
38、cess, satellite news gathering, videoconferencing, radio, air traffic services, multimedia distribution 6 Rep. ITU-R M.2077 2.4 Usage profiles The usage profiles in Table 6 are based on Report ITU-R M.2023 and are broken down by service type. TABLE 6 Usage levels per month taken from Report ITU-R M.
39、2023 Type Units 2005 2010 Comments Non-multimedia Voice Min at 16 kbit/s 73 71 Low-speed data kbytes 8 365 8 175 Approximately 70 min/month at 16 kbit/s Multimedia Voice Min at 8 kbit/s 20 26 Low-speed data kbytes 2 584 3 380 Approximately 25 min/month at 16 kbit/s Asymmetric kbytes 26 154 34 247 Ap
40、proximately 35 min/month at 104/144 kbit/s Interactive Min at 144 kbit/s 2 2 Low due to only a small portion (10% to 20%) of forecasted users will use the service For multimedia distribution (e.g. satellite mobile TV), the number of subscribers and monthly usage profile per subscriber is not directl
41、y relevant to the traffic forecast. This is because of the inherent nature of these services; the same volume of traffic will be distributed regardless of whether it is received by one or many receivers/subscribers. The volume of multimedia distribution traffic is determined from commercial estimate
42、s of the channel throughput and number of channels required to provide the multimedia distribution service. It is assumed that the demand for services such as satellite mobile TV and rich media will increase, capturing some of the terrestrial mobile traffic because satellite services are inherently
43、more suited to providing programs on a large scale, intended for large audiences, compared to terrestrial services. TABLE 7 Multimedia satellite distribution traffic forecast (Mbytes/month) MM distribution traffic forecast/year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Channel throughpu
44、t (kbit/s) 256 256 256 512 512 512 1 024 1 024 1 024 1 536 1 536Number of required channels based on user requirements study 30 30 30 30 35 35 35 35 40 40 40 Millions Mbytes/month 2.5 2.5 2.5 5 5.8 5.8 11.6 11.6 13.2 19.9 19.9Number of channels assumed for low traffic scenario 17 17 17 17 17 26 26 2
45、6 26 26 26 Millions Mbytes/month for low traffic scenario 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.8 2.8 4.3 8.6 8.6 8.6 12.9 12.9Number of channels assumed for high traffic scenario 26 26 26 26 26 35 35 35 35 35 35 Millions Mbytes/month for high traffic scenario 2.2 2.2 2.2 4.3 4.3 5.8 11.6 11.6 11.6 17.4 17.4Rep. ITU-R M.20
46、77 7 Table 7 shows the multimedia distribution traffic forecast under consideration. User requirement studies resulted in forecasts between 30 and 40 channels as shown in the second row, which needed some adjustments to reflect traffic sharing with alternative service providers via terrestrial cellu
47、lar as well as satellite networks. For a low traffic scenario, 17 channels, and for a high traffic scenario, 35 channels have been assumed, respectively. Related traffic volumes are contained in rows 6 and 8 of Table 7. 2.5 User traffic per service application This section derives the user traffic p
48、er service application for each of the identified service types. The variation between service applications was assumed to be in the services used rather than the usage profile of individual services. Table 8 shows the usage per month for individual services together with annual adjustment factors f
49、or the individual service applications. TABLE 8 Usage levels for various service applications Multimedia applications Non-multimedia applications Low traffic scenario Voice Interactive Asymmetric forward Asymmetric return Low speed Low speed Messaging Voice Usage levels per month per user (min or Mbytes) 26.00 2.16 17.13 8.56 3.38 8.18 0.004 71.00 Annual adjustment factor for usage levels 1.053 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.058 0.996 1.000 0.994 Multimedia applications Non-multimedia applications High traffic scenario Voice Interactive Asymmetric forward Asymmetric return Low speed Low speed Mess
