1、Designation: E2506 15Standard Guide forDeveloping a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan for Newand Existing Constructed Facilities1This standard is issued under the fixed designation E2506; the number immediately following the designation indicates the year oforiginal adoption or, in the case of rev
2、ision, the year of last revision. A number in parentheses indicates the year of last reapproval. Asuperscript epsilon () indicates an editorial change since the last revision or reapproval.INTRODUCTIONProtecting constructed facilities from damages from natural and man-made hazards in a cost-effectiv
3、e manner is a challenging task. Several measures of economic performance are available forevaluating building-related investments. These measures include, but are not limited to, life-cycle cost,present value net savings, savings-to-investment ratio, and adjusted internal rate of return. This guidep
4、rovides a generic framework for assessing the risks associated with natural and man-made hazards,formulating combinations of risk mitigation strategies for constructed facilities exposed to thosehazards, and using measures of economic performance to identify the most cost-effective combinationof str
5、ategies.1. Scope1.1 This guide describes a generic framework for develop-ing a cost-effective risk mitigation plan for new and existingconstructed facilitiesbuildings, industrial facilities, and othercritical infrastructure. This guide provides owners and manag-ers of constructed facilities, archite
6、cts, engineers, constructors,other providers of professional services for constructedfacilities, and researchers an approach for formulating andevaluating combinations of risk mitigation strategies.1.2 This guide insures that the combinations of mitigationstrategies are formulated so that they can b
7、e rigorouslyanalyzed with economic tools. Economic tools include evalu-ation methods, standards that support and guide the applicationof those methods, and software for implementing the evalua-tion methods.1.3 The generic framework described in this guide helpsdecision makers assess the likelihood t
8、hat their facility and itscontents will be damaged from natural and man-made hazards;identify engineering, management, and financial strategies forabating the risk of damages; and use standardized economicevaluation methods to select the most cost-effective combina-tion of risk mitigation strategies
9、 to protect their facility.1.4 The purpose of the risk mitigation plan is to provide themost cost-effective reduction in personal injuries, financiallosses, and damages to new and existing constructed facilities.Thus, the risk mitigation plan incorporates perspectives frommultiple stakeholdersowners
10、 and managers, occupants andusers, and other affected partiesin addressing natural andman-made hazards.1.5 This standard does not purport to address all of thesafety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is theresponsibility of the user of this standard to establish appro-priate safety and h
11、ealth practices and determine the applica-bility of regulatory limitations prior to use.2. Referenced Documents2.1 ASTM Standards:2E631 Terminology of Building ConstructionsE833 Terminology of Building EconomicsE917 Practice for Measuring Life-Cycle Costs of Buildingsand Building SystemsE964 Practic
12、e for Measuring Benefit-to-Cost and Savings-to-Investment Ratios for Buildings and Building SystemsE1057 Practice for Measuring Internal Rate of Return andAdjusted Internal Rate of Return for Investments inBuildings and Building SystemsE1074 Practice for Measuring Net Benefits and Net Savingsfor Inv
13、estments in Buildings and Building SystemsE1121 Practice for Measuring Payback for Investments inBuildings and Building Systems1This guide is under the jurisdiction of ASTM Committee E06 on Performanceof Buildings and is the direct responsibility of Subcommittee E06.81 on BuildingEconomics.Current e
14、dition approved Aug. 1, 2015. Published August 2015. Originallyapproved in 2006. Last previous edition approved in 2011 as E250611. DOI:10.1520/E2506-15.2For referenced ASTM standards, visit the ASTM website, www.astm.org, orcontact ASTM Customer Service at serviceastm.org. For Annual Book of ASTMSt
15、andards volume information, refer to the standards Document Summary page onthe ASTM website.Copyright ASTM International, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, PO Box C700, West Conshohocken, PA 19428-2959. United States1E1185 Guide for Selecting Economic Methods for Evaluat-ing Investments in Buildings and Buildi
16、ng SystemsE1369 Guide for Selecting Techniques for Treating Uncer-tainty and Risk in the Economic Evaluation of Buildingsand Building SystemsE1557 Classification for Building Elements and RelatedSiteworkUNIFORMAT IIE1699 Practice for Performing Value Engineering (VE)/Value Analysis (VA) of Projects,
17、 Products and ProcessesE1765 Practice for Applying Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) to Multiattribute Decision Analysis of InvestmentsRelated to Buildings and Building SystemsE1946 Practice for Measuring Cost Risk of Buildings andBuilding Systems and Other Constructed ProjectsE2103/E2103M Classific
18、ation for Bridge ElementsUNIFORMAT IIE2166 Practice for Organizing and Managing Building DataE2204 Guide for Summarizing the Economic Impacts ofBuilding-Related Projects2.2 Adjuncts:Discount Factor Tables Adjunct to Practices E917, E964,E1057, E1074, and E112133. Terminology3.1 DefinitionsFor defini
19、tions of general terms related tobuilding construction used in this guide, refer to TerminologyE631; and for general terms related to building economics,refer to Terminology E833.4. Summary of Guide4.1 This guide presents a generic framework for developinga cost-effective risk mitigation plan for co
20、nstructed facilitiesexposed to natural and man-made hazards. The generic frame-work consists of three interrelated components. The threecomponents are: (1) perform risk assessment; (2) specifycombinations of risk mitigation strategies; and (3) performeconomic evaluation. The generic framework builds
21、 on anapproach presented in Chapman and Leng (1).44.2 This guide identifies related ASTM standards and ad-juncts and describes why measuring uncertainty and risk iscritical in the development of cost-effective protective strate-gies for constructed facilities. In addition to ASTM standardsand adjunc
22、ts, this guide identifies technical documents andsoftware that support the generic framework. These documentsand software are summarized in Appendix X1.4.3 Data about the frequency and consequences of naturaland man-made hazards are helpful when assessing the risksthat a particular facility faces fr
23、om these hazards. Historicalpatterns of natural disasters, in particular, indicate which areasare more prone to these specific hazards in the future. Manyanalysts refer to past incidences of man-made hazards, such ascrime, as predictors of future occurrences. Sources of hazardsdata are presented in
24、Appendix X2.5. Significance and Use5.1 Standard practices for measuring the economic perfor-mance of investments in buildings and building systems havebeen published by ASTM. A computer program that produceseconomic measures consistent with these practices is avail-able.5The computer program is desc
25、ribed in Appendix X3.Discount Factor Tables has been published by ASTM to facili-tate computing measures of economic performance for most ofthe practices.5.2 Investments in long-lived projects, such as the erectionof new constructed facilities or additions and alterations toexisting constructed faci
26、lities, are characterized by uncertain-ties regarding project life, operation and maintenance costs,revenues, and other factors that affect project economics. Sincefuture values of these variable factors are generally unknown,it is difficult to make reliable economic evaluations.5.3 The traditional
27、approach to uncertainty in project invest-ment analysis is to apply economic methods of project evalu-ation to best-guess estimates of project input variables, as ifthey were certain estimates, and then to present results in asingle-value, deterministic fashion. When projects are evalu-ated without
28、regard to uncertainty of inputs to the analysis,decision makers may have insufficient information to measureand evaluate the financial risk of investing in a project havinga different outcome from what is expected.5.4 To make reliable economic evaluations, treatment ofuncertainty and risk is particu
29、larly important for projectsaffected by natural and man-made hazards that occurinfrequently, but have significant consequences.5.5 Following this guide when performing an economicevaluation assures the user that relevant economic information,including information regarding uncertain input variables,
30、 isconsidered for projects affected by natural and man-madehazards.5.6 Use this guide in the project initiation and planningphases of the project delivery process. Consideration of alter-native combinations of risk mitigation strategies early in theproject delivery process allows both greater flexib
31、ility inaddressing specific hazards and lower costs associated withtheir implementation.5.7 Use this guide for economic evaluations based onPractices E917 (life-cycle costs), E964 (benefit-to-cost andsavings-to-investment ratios), E1057 (internal rate of returnand adjusted internal rate of return),
32、E1074 (net benefits andnet savings), E1121 (payback), E1699 (value engineering), andE1765 (analytical hierarchy process for multiattribute decisionanalysis).5.8 Use this guide in conjunction with Guide E2204 tosummarize the results of economic evaluations involvingnatural and man-made hazards.3Avail
33、able from ASTM International Headquarters. Order Adjunct No.ADJE091703.4The boldface numbers in parentheses refer to a list of references at the end ofthis standard.5The NIST Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Capital Asset Protection helps userscalculate measures of economic performance for buildings and
34、building systems thatare consistent with ASTM standards. The program is downloadable from http:/www.nist.gov/el/economics/CETSoftware.cfm.E2506 1526. Procedures6.1 The recommended steps in developing a cost-effectiverisk mitigation plan are as follows:6.1.1 Establish risk mitigation objectives and c
35、onstraints.6.1.2 Conduct assessment and document findings.6.1.3 Review alternative risk mitigation strategies.6.1.4 Select candidate combinations of risk mitigation strat-egies.6.1.5 Develop cost estimates and sequence of cash flows foreach candidate combination.6.1.6 Select appropriate economic met
36、hod(s) for evaluatingthe candidate combinations of risk mitigation strategies (seeGuide E1185).6.1.7 Compute measures of economic performance for eachcandidate combination.6.1.8 Recompute measures of economic performance takinginto consideration uncertainty and risk (see Guide E1369 andPractice E194
37、6).6.1.9 Analyze results and recommend the most cost-effective combination of risk mitigation strategies.6.1.10 Prepare report with documentation supporting rec-ommended risk mitigation plan.7. Perform Risk Assessment7.1 Establish Risk Mitigation Objectives and Constraints:7.1.1 Specify the decision
38、-makers objectives. This is cru-cial in defining the problem and determining the suitability ofthe economic evaluation method(s).7.1.2 Identify the constructed facility or set of facilities to beevaluated. Identify the types of hazards to be evaluated.7.1.3 Specify the design or system objective tha
39、t is to beaccomplished. Identify any constraints that limit the availableoptions to be considered.7.2 Conduct Assessment and Document Findings:7.2.1 Form an assessment team composed of individualsfamiliar with the type of facility or set of facilities to beevaluated, individuals familiar with assess
40、ment tools andtechniques, and individuals who have breadth and depth ofexperience and understand other disciplines and system inter-dependencies. Refer to the risk assessment guidance docu-ments and software tools summarized in Appendix X1 to gainassessment insights on specific hazards or classes of
41、 hazards.Supplement your data sources with those described in Appen-dix X2 to compile information on the likelihood and severity ofspecific hazards or classes of hazards.7.2.2 Use information from the documents and softwaresummarized in Appendix X1 to produce an assessment plan.Provide the assessmen
42、t team with the tools, such as laptopcomputers and electronic forms/data collection sheets, neededto implement the assessment plan.7.2.3 Make assignments and deploy the assessment team.Collect and compile information on specific hazard types, theirlikelihood, and consequences.7.2.4 Use an agreed upo
43、n format, such as ClassificationsE1557 or E2103/E2103M or Practice E2166, to create acompiled set of information collected from the assessmentteam that documents the findings of the risk assessment.Transmit the compiled set of information to a central repositoryto insure that access to sensitive inf
44、ormation can be limited tothose with a legitimate need to know.8. Specify Combinations of Risk Mitigation Strategies forEvaluation8.1 Review Alternative Risk Mitigation StrategiesThissection describes three risk mitigation strategiesengineering,management, and financial. Each strategy is composed of
45、multiple approaches for addressing hazards identified in therisk assessment. These approaches focus on hazard mitigationfor a specific system or collection of systems and components,as well as facility and site-related elements. Strategies may beused either singly or in combination. Past research in
46、dicatesthat combinations of risk mitigation strategies offer flexibilityin dealing with both a single hazard and multiple hazards.8.1.1 Engineering:8.1.1.1 Engineering strategies are technical options in theconstruction or renovation of constructed facilities, theirsystems, or their subsystems desig
47、ned to reduce the likelihoodor consequences of disasters. Engineering strategies provideprotection against both natural and man-made hazards. Engi-neering strategies also help defend against man-made hazards,where their ability to detect or deter may reduce the likelihoodor consequences of such haza
48、rds.8.1.1.2 Protective engineering strategies are intended toreduce harm to occupants, damage to the structure, anddisruption of business if a disaster occurs. Protective engineer-ing strategies may improve the structural integrity of abuilding, facilitate evacuation of occupants, or circumventcompr
49、omised systems.8.1.1.3 There is some overlap among engineering strategiesthat deter, detect, and protect against terrorist attacks and othercriminal acts. Detection and protective engineering strategiesthat are observable to potential terrorists may deter them fromattacking. Closed-circuit television (CCTV), for example, isdesigned to detect unauthorized activities, but its visibility maydeter these activities.8.1.1.4 Risk mitigation strategies may also be hazard-specific. Reinforced building shell, shatter-resistant glass, anduse of barriers and bollards to achieve increas
