1、Technical & Economic Assessment Grid, Mini-grid & Off-grid Electrification Technologies,Chubu Electric Power Co.,Inc. (CEPCO) Toyo Engineering Co. (TOYO) The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) Princeton Energy Resources Institute (PERI),Study Objective,To characterize the current and future compa
2、rative economic costs of generation from renewable and fossil fuel-fired electricity generation technologies configured to suit off-grid, mini-grid and grid applications (50 W to 500 MWs),Power Generation Options,Estimated by Study team, based on World Energy Outlook 2005(IEA), International Energy
3、Outlook (DOE) and World Bank. Fuel cost include transportation cost and refinery cost.(Gasoline:50%, LO: 40%) Base crude oil : 38$/bbl,Fuel Prices,Power Generation Options for Off-grid, Mini-grid and Grid-connected Applications,Pico Hydro 1kW,Gas Combined Cycle 300MW,Coal Steam subcritical 300MW,Coa
4、l IGCC 300MW,Coal AFBC 300MW,Oil Steam 300MW,Biomass Gasifier 100kW,Biogas 60kW,Micro Hydro 100kW,Wind 10MW,Geothermal 50MW,Bio Steam 50MW,MSW/ Landfill Gas 5MW,Mini Hydro 5MW,Diesel Generator 5MW,Fuel Cells 5MW,Off-Grid,Mini-Grid,Grid connected,(cent/kWh),Many renewables are generally more economic
5、al than comparable conventional generation options in off-grid (1 kW or less) configurations,Diesel/Gasolene Generator 1kW (CF=30%),Diesel/Gasolene Generator 300W (CF=30%),Pico Hydro 1kW (CF=30%),Pico Hydro 300W (CF=30%),PV-Wind Hybrid 300W (CF=30%),Wind 300W (CF=30%),Solar PV 300W (CF=20%),Solar PV
6、 50W (CF=20%),Renewables also compare favorably with comparable conventional generation options in mini-grid (5kW-500kW) configurations,Some renewables are more economical than conventional generation in small (5MW 50MW) grid-connected applications,Conventional generation options remain more economi
7、cal for grid-connected applications,Many Coal generation options; best choice depends on fuel costs and environmental requirements,Coal Steam subcritical 300MW (CF=80%),Coal IGCC 300MW (CF=80%),Coal AFBC 300MW (CF=80%),Coal Steam subcritical 500MW (CF=80%),Coal Steam SC 500MW (CF=80%),Coal Steam USC
8、 500MW (CF=80%),Coal IGCC 500MW (CF=80%),Coal AFBC 500MW (CF=80%),Advanced generation options have considerable potential,Supercritical PC offers higher efficiency and lower risk with potential for further improvements AFBC is competitive especially with low quality fuels IGCC economics are expected
9、 to improve500 MW Plant,Factors being taken into account,Fuel price forecasts Technology development trends Grid connection costs and issues Risks Climate change considerations,Fuel Price Forecasts,($/GJ, in 2004),33$/bbl 38$/bbl,4.1$/MMBtu 5.1$/MMBtu,35$/ton 40$/ton,High-case,2005, Reference-case,H
10、igh-case,2005, Reference-case,High-case,2005, Reference-case,2004, Reference-case,2004, Reference-case,2004, Reference-case,Source: Estimated by Study team, based on World Energy Outlook 2005(IEA), International Energy Outlook (DOE) and World Bank,500 MW Thermal Power Plant CO2 Reduction Potential,C
11、apacity Factor: 80%,Conclusions,Renewables are competitive especially for off-grid and mini-grid applications Thermal power still preferable for large grid connected applications Technological developments and climate change may alter the cost-effectiveness of technologies Site-specific factors affect significantly the technology selection Remaining activities under the project: Complete risk assessment Develop spreadsheet to assess costs considering site-specific considerations,
