欢迎来到麦多课文档分享! | 帮助中心 海量文档,免费浏览,给你所需,享你所想!
麦多课文档分享
全部分类
  • 标准规范>
  • 教学课件>
  • 考试资料>
  • 办公文档>
  • 学术论文>
  • 行业资料>
  • 易语言源码>
  • ImageVerifierCode 换一换
    首页 麦多课文档分享 > 资源分类 > PPT文档下载
    分享到微信 分享到微博 分享到QQ空间

    Are Emerging Markets Still Emerging-.ppt

    • 资源ID:378553       资源大小:990.50KB        全文页数:16页
    • 资源格式: PPT        下载积分:2000积分
    快捷下载 游客一键下载
    账号登录下载
    微信登录下载
    二维码
    微信扫一扫登录
    下载资源需要2000积分(如需开发票,请勿充值!)
    邮箱/手机:
    温馨提示:
    如需开发票,请勿充值!快捷下载时,用户名和密码都是您填写的邮箱或者手机号,方便查询和重复下载(系统自动生成)。
    如需开发票,请勿充值!如填写123,账号就是123,密码也是123。
    支付方式: 支付宝扫码支付    微信扫码支付   
    验证码:   换一换

    加入VIP,交流精品资源
     
    账号:
    密码:
    验证码:   换一换
      忘记密码?
        
    友情提示
    2、PDF文件下载后,可能会被浏览器默认打开,此种情况可以点击浏览器菜单,保存网页到桌面,就可以正常下载了。
    3、本站不支持迅雷下载,请使用电脑自带的IE浏览器,或者360浏览器、谷歌浏览器下载即可。
    4、本站资源下载后的文档和图纸-无水印,预览文档经过压缩,下载后原文更清晰。
    5、试题试卷类文档,如果标题没有明确说明有答案则都视为没有答案,请知晓。

    Are Emerging Markets Still Emerging-.ppt

    1、Are Emerging Markets Still Emerging?,Bart van Ark,Since 2014 GDP growth in emerging markets rapidly declined both employment and productivity are causes,Contributions of Employment and Labor Productivity to GDP Growth, 2000-2016, in % (annual average),Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Datab

    2、ase, May 2016,To some extent this is much about China, but not just China,Trend growth in output (GDP) per worker, 1971-2015, in %,While emerging market growth held up after 2008/09 crisis, it was increasingly investment driven with negative TFP,Growth Contributions of Labor, Capital and Productivit

    3、y, in %,The BRICs dont have a lot in common except for recently weakening TFP growth,Growth Contributions of Labor, Capital and Productivity, in %,The “next” generation of emerging markets shows a similar pattern of mostly capital intensification of the growth process,Growth Contributions of Labor,

    4、Capital and Productivity, in %,Possible explanations for emerging market slowdown,Short-term: A temporary dip due to lower oil and commodity prices for resource-rich emerging markets Fallout of possible monetary tightening in U.S., including depreciations and inflation Increase capital outflow to re

    5、gions with higher returns Medium-term: End of catch-up growth and transition from investment- and export- driven growth to consumption and services driven growth A middle income trap because of increased global competitive challenges Innovation challenges in globalization V2 Long-term: Erosion of de

    6、mographic dividends Structural policy issues (regulatory and governance),Resource-rich economies are tightening monetary and fiscal stance, while net users of resources loosen policies further to support economic growth,Source: Haver Analytics,%,Mar 16,The middle income trap results from the failure

    7、 to transition to a slower but sustainable growth path,Countries trapped in the middle-income range are characterized by loss of competition in transition process,Countries that are unable to compete with low-income, low-wage economies in manufactured exports and with advanced economies in high-skil

    8、l innovations such countries cannot make a timely transition from resource-driven growth, with low cost labor and capital, to productivity-driven growth. (ADB, 2011) Industries that drove the growth in the early period start to become globally uncompetitive due to rising wages. These labor-intensive

    9、 sectors move to lower-wage countries and are replaced by a new set of industries that are more capital-, human capital-, and knowledge-intensive in the way they create value. (Spence 2011) A large number of countries that receive too little manufacturing FDI stay at stage zero. Even after reaching

    10、the first stage, climbing up the ladders becomes increasingly difficult. Another group of countries are stuck in the second stage because they fail to upgrade human capital. (Ohno 2009),The countries that are “technically” at risk of a middle income trap are all relatively capital- or resource-inten

    11、sive,Output per person employed as a % of OECD average, 19902-15,There are still many different “Chinas”,Level of GDP per capita (PPP-based) - The richest five vs the poorest five provinces,Emerging markets still enjoy demographic dividend but it will slow higher skills have to make up for it to dri

    12、ve TFP growth,* “Natural“ refers to growth in population excluding migration Source: United Nations Population Division,Productivity growth could see some recovery into 2020s, but will it be enough to offset slowing labor supply?,Trend growth in output (GDP) per worker, 1970-2025, in %,No ! Growth r

    13、ates of mature and emerging markets will converge dramatically,*Europe includes European Union -28 as well as Switzerland , Iceland and Norway.*Other mature economies are Australia, Canada, Iceland, Israel, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China.*Southeast Europ

    14、e includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro, and Turkey.Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2016 (November 2015),GDP Growth, average annual % change,How to avoid an “exit” for emerging markets? From “accumulation” to “assimilation”,Despite s

    15、hort-term challenges, the main constraints for emerging markets to sustain growth are medium-term The slowing demographic dividend is unlikely to be made up for by faster labor productivity growth The rebalancing from (tangible) capital accumulation to skills and innovation will make ongoing catch-u

    16、p with mature countries possible The current slowdown in globalization (weak trade, slow FDI) is a constraining factor The nature of current innovation does not reward low-wage economies as a virtue on its own it depends on returns on human and other intangible capital Regulatory and governance issues in an innovation-driven economy are much more challenging,


    注意事项

    本文(Are Emerging Markets Still Emerging-.ppt)为本站会员(brainfellow396)主动上传,麦多课文档分享仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对上载内容本身不做任何修改或编辑。 若此文所含内容侵犯了您的版权或隐私,请立即通知麦多课文档分享(点击联系客服),我们立即给予删除!




    关于我们 - 网站声明 - 网站地图 - 资源地图 - 友情链接 - 网站客服 - 联系我们

    copyright@ 2008-2019 麦多课文库(www.mydoc123.com)网站版权所有
    备案/许可证编号:苏ICP备17064731号-1 

    收起
    展开