1、“How to feed the World in 2050” The outlook for food and agriculture in a dynamically changing economic and demographic environmentJosef Schmidhuber Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,The key challenges,Feed 9.2 billion by 2050, feed them better and provide more nutritious food
2、Produce feedstocks for a potentially huge bioenergy market Contribute to overall development and poverty reduction Cope with scarce resources and shift to more sustainable production methods Adapt to the agro-ecological conditions of climate change and help reduce GHG emissions,The dynamically chang
3、ing environment,Population growth: +2.3 bn to 2050 after +3.3 bn over the last 40 years Highest growth in poorest region: SSA +114% Lowest growth in richest region: E and SE Asia +14% +2.7 bn in urban areas, massive urbanization Income growth: Overall a richer world by 2050 +2.9% growth p.a. for the
4、 world as a whole, higher in DCs lower in ICs Convergence, less inequality (country basis) Less poverty, but low poverty line of $1.25,Population growth to continue, but at a slower pace,0.0,3.0,6.0,9.0,12.0,1750,1800,1850,1900,1950,2000,2050,Total population (billions),0,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7
5、,0.8,0.9,Annual increments (billions),Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2006,The food outlook,Food production: slow down in growth +70% between 2005/07 and 2050 +1,000 million t of cereals (from 2,200 million t today) +200 million t of meats (from 270 million t today) +300 million t of soybean
6、s (from 215 million t today) Food trade: rapid expansion overall DC net imports cereal: 125 million t 300 million t DC net exports oilseeds: 8 million t 25 million t DC net exports sugar: 10 million t 20 million t Food prices Secular downward trend in real prices to discontinue? Energy price link to
7、 become more importantBioenergy demand: wildcard for production, trade and prices,Nutrition, hunger & malnutrition,Higher calorie availability World: 2770 3050 kcal/p/d DCs: 2680 2970 kcal/p/d Lower levels and incidence of hunger From 823 m (16.3%) in 2003/05 to 370 m in 2050 (4.8%) WFS target of ha
8、lving the absolute numbers only in the 2040s! Progress in reducing hunger, but insufficient Higher levels of overweight and obesity More NCDs (diabetes 2, coronary heart disease, etc.) Growing double burden of malnutrition, from “food poverty” to “health poverty”,Is there enough crop land?,huge pote
9、ntial: 4.2 billion ha 1.60 billion ha in use today, increase to 1.67 billion ha by 2050 But land reserves unevenly distributed: ample in SSA and LA, exhausted in NENA and SASIA and: 800 mha covered by forests, 200 mha in protected areas, 60 mha in settlements,Is there enough yield potential?,Sources
10、 of growth: predominantly through higher productivity (as in the past) World: 77% yields, 14% CI, 9% area DCs: 71% yields, 8% CI, 21% area Yield growth: considerable slow down: 0.8% p.a. in the future compared to 1.7% in the past Yield potentials Still considerable untapped/bridgeable yield potentia
11、ls Intensification possible to narrow yield gaps Technology potential to raise yield ceilings but: R&D needed for crops that are important for the poor (millet, sorghum, R&T, pulses, plantains),Is there enough water?,Area equipped with irrigation World: +31 mha to 318 mha DCs: +32 mha to 251 mha AH
12、under irrigation: +17% Water withdrawals: “only” +11% Higher water use efficiency Decline of irrigated rice area Resource “pressure”: withdrawals as share of renewable water resources relatively low for the world as a whole, but very high in NENA (58-62%) and high and rising in SASIA (36-39%),Agricu
13、ltural transformation,Vibrant agricultural sector needed for a successful economic transformation Low food prices and labour surplus stimulated economic growth in developed countries, absorption of rural labour, pull effect For developing countries to enter into a similarly successful transformation
14、, more investment in agriculture is crucial (infrastructure, institutions, R&D, extension, food safety nets, productive safety nets, resource conservation),Conclusions,The world has the resources (land, water, genetics and know-how) to feed 9.2 billion people by 2050 Food security is a predominantly
15、 a poverty problem; but no success in poverty/hunger reduction without improvements in agriculture The poor depend on agriculture and they are disproportionately more affected by CC, higher food and energy prices Agriculture is the Poors (and the worlds) best hope: Investments in agriculture are key to reducing poverty, hunger, adapting to and mitigating climate change,
